Prop Farm: Sharp money on Patrick Cantlay over Scottie Scheffler at The American Express

With triple-digit winners to kick off the 2024 season, the books are likely in pretty good shape heading into the West Coast Swing and The American Express taking place this week in La Quinta, California.

Looking back on last week's final round at the Sony Open in Hawaii, to conclude the PGA TOUR's 2024 two-week stay in the Aloha state, it is interesting to see where some of the wagers we spoke about in last week's column landed.

Cam Davis got off to a tremendous start and was your first-round leader at Waialae after firing an impressive 8-under 62 in heavy winds – but the winning score prop of Over/Under 17.5 under par, stayed under with Keegan Bradley, Byeong Hun An, and eventual winner, Grayson Murray, all finishing at 17-under in regulation. Oddly enough, as the winds died down, so did much of the scoring. Davis led the way at 8-under after day one but at the halfway point, 9-under was good enough for a share of the lead. Winds were at their calmest on Sunday with Keegan Bradley alone in the lead at 14-under. It looked like surely the winning score prop would go "Over" but it was not to be.

Brian Harman was heavily bet in the outright market along with An and Corey Conners. Obviously, An was close but the books had to make a killing in this market with very few if any bets at all on Murray at +35000.

"The outright market is usually pretty good to us anyway but no, we had very little to nothing on either Chris Kirk or Grayson Murray to begin the season," said Mike Piranio, the Senior Manager of Race & Sports at Mandalay Bay, a BetMGM property here in Las Vegas. "It's been a little slow as far as handle the last couple of weeks. We're still in the heart of the NFL Playoffs. Many of the casual golf bettors really don't start getting involved with us until the Masters or until a few weeks before that first major."

The American Express has the TOUR returning to the mainland this week. It is a Pro-Am contested on three different courses in the area, La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST, and thr Pete Dye Stadium Course. The cut will be made after 54 holes with each player having played a round at each of the three properties. Sunday's finale will take place on the Stadium Course.

"We've seen some public action in the outright market on Sungjae Im, J.T. Poston, and Wyndham Clark." We also took one very significant bet on Joseph Bramlett at about +25000 if I recall. We have since reduced his odds to +17500," said Piranio.

Personally, I too expect Im to contend here once again. He's a perfect five-for-five in cuts made at The American Express with no finish worse than 18th. He also comes off of a fifth-place finish at The Sentry two weeks ago. Backing Poston is definitely understandable coming off of two straight top-six finishes in Hawaii.

Bramlett’s name came up again when another bookmaker in Las Vegas told me they are seeing sharp action in the top-20 finish market on Jacob Bridgeman, Michael Kim, and Bramlett. Other names garnering sharp attention for a top-20 finish are Jason Day, J.T. Poston, and Patrick Cantlay.

For the Make or Miss The Cut prop bet, perennial American Express contender, Adam Hadwin is seeing sharp action to Make The Cut, as are Cam Davis, and Tom Kim.

Golf oddsmaker for BetMGM, Seamus Magee, saw a similar trend as did Piranio, saying, “not a ton of handle coming in on the props at the moment.”

But the name Cam Davis is showing up at his shop too. “One name in the props that has flashed across my screen more than a few times is Cam Davis. To make the cut (-200), and for him to be the Top Australian (+333). I wouldn’t say that is especially sharp action but there has definitely been some attention here,” Magee said.

Davis is a player I played for an outright win this week (+6600 at BetMGM) as I like the way he finished last season with five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts – and the couple of moments that he flashed in Hawaii. The current form seems to be on and I feel Davis has a win or two in him in 2024 – despite him missing the cut here at The American Express in his debut appearance in 2023.

Piranio is a strong golf bettor himself and echoed my sentiments that I spelled out in this column two weeks ago when our coverage began. "You don't have that big payout like the outright winner but you have a much better chance to win your bet in the head-to-head matchups."

Piranio continued, "We've seen some sharp play in the matchups. They're playing Patrick Cantlay (+145) over Scottie Scheffler, Aaron Rai (-155) over Davis Thompson, Matt Kuchar (-125) over Matt Wallace, Tom Hoge (-105) over Erik Van Rooyen, and Sam Ryder (+100) over Sam Stevens."

Cantlay at a nice plus price over Scheffler makes sense as Cantlay has twice finished ninth here and was runner-up in 2021. Scheffler was 11th here last year and finished third in 2020.

Piranio mentioned to me that BetMGM is working on updating its golf betting menu to offer more prop markets. Outside of Nevada, the options are more widespread but it may not be long before we can wager on a First Round Leader in Nevada.

Golf oddsmaker, Scott Shelton from Mirage in Las Vegas confirmed, “Yes, it is supposed to be released next week. It will be the same as the national platform.”

At The Borgata in New Jersey, Race and Sportsbook Director, Thomas Gable is seeing some sharp play for First Round Leader on Brandt Snedeker (+9000) and Ben Griffin (+3300). BetMGM PR Manager/Media Insights, John Ewing explained, “This week, with three courses, we are offering First Round Leader betting on each course. La Quinta Country Club is currently the most bet with Scottie Scheffler as the most popular pick, responsible for 12% of bets.”

Ewing went on to add, “The most popular prop bet is Andrew Putnam to finish top 20.”

Putnam was a player I was on for an outright win last week at the Sony Open. He finished tied for 10th. He’s made six of seven cuts at The American Express and has never finished worse than 36th.