Benny and the Bets: Course rotation becomes big factor at The American Express

Golf is a mental game.

Sure, you need boatloads of skill to compete on the PGA TOUR. But the difference between the 50th-ranked player in the world and the 650th player in the world is, in reality, not that much when it comes to skill.

What makes a player truly elite is marrying their physical skills with their mental ones.

Each week there are factors in a golf tournament that put the mental game to the test—obvious ones like the straight pressure of competing for millions of dollars and other, more granular moments.

A gust of wind after impact, a bump on a green, a weird hop, a divot. External factors are seemingly outside a player's control.

The key moment for any golfer comes after. How do they deal with adversity? How quickly can they let go of an issue? Can they minimize damage and get back on the horse?

Now The American Express has a different mental component of its own. It will be a scoring shootout. We all know this. And I have some key statsto focus on later in the column. But don’t underestimate the fact that players face three different courses and the effect on mindset this can have on individuals.

PGA WEST's Pete Dye Stadium Course is the host, but we also see each player play at La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course before a 54-hole cut and a final round back at the Stadium.

Historically, the Stadium Course has played a little harder than the other two. TOUR officials have worked hard to find a natural parity between the three, but only so much can be done.

Plus, perception can be part of all of this.

If the players perceive one course to be the easiest, they may think they "have" to take advantage. This brings aggressive decision-making which — if executed — produces low scores.

In the last seven trips to The American Express, four of the winners played La Quinta on the opening day. Two played the Nicklaus Tournament and just one started at the Stadium Course.

Through 36 holes last year, 13 of the top 20 players had played La Quinta on day one and the Stadium Course on day two. They had earned their confidence ahead of hitting the Stadium. After three rounds, 10 of the top 20 were those who played Stadium in the third round, riding their fast starts and momentum.

“There is no question a mental edge getting off to a hot start on La Quinta,” said former PGA TOUR winner Greg Chalmers. “Basically, it's like the energy of the week is flowing in the right direction out of the gate.

“The fact is there is less trouble or water at La Quinta, so if you are a little offline, you might still recover, but the Stadium is full of water and you can’t recover from there unless you’ve got gills.”

Chalmers says the mentality in a shootout is a challenge in and of itself. And when you add the dynamic of needing to chase a score, it can get away from you.

“It’s a different kind of mental grind in a shootout,” Chalmers adds. “It really like you can't make one mistake out there because a bogey feels like a triple. Everyone's going so low and people think that's easier but, in a sense, sometimes it can feel harder.

“On a Bethpage Black if I bogey the first it's not like the end of the world because a lot of people are going to bogey the first. Shootouts are a real test of your patience. It’s one thing to start on the easier course and try to start well … it’s a whole other thought process to come there on the third day knowing you have to go low.”

If we look closely, we can find some examples from last season. Sam Burns started on the Stadium Course and shot an 8-under 64 to be T2 only behind a 62 from Davis Thompson at La Quinta. He was heading to La Quinta knowing he had the chance to surge ahead.

“Just going out there and trying to have a good game plan and sticking to it," Burns said ahead of his second round. "I think La Quinta is a great golf course. People say it's really easy, but at the same time it's still a golf course and you have to go execute.”

This sounds like a good mindset. He knew he still had to execute … But, he also tipped his hat by admitting he’d heard it was “easy.”

Hindsight can tell us it’s possible Burns saw Thompson’s number and went out chasing something similar. He opened his round birdie-birdie and then stalled. Frustration grew as he pressed. In the end, it was a 2-under 70, and he went from two back to eight back.

“When you play at Torrey Pines a 7-iron to the middle of a green might be a great shot,” Chalmers adds. “But at The American Express, a 7-iron to the middle of a green probably sucks comparatively. You have to go at flags and make putts and with every shot that’s not near perfect, it feels like others are pulling away. That can snowball.”

Last season, Robert Streb shot 1-under on Stadium to open. At La Quinta, he got aggressive and dropped three shots in his opening three holes. Essentially his tournament was over.

So, with this knowledge, I will be leaning heavily on players who start at La Quinta in Round 1 before the Nicklaus Tournament course in Round 2 and the Stadium in Round 3.

Second to the rotation factor I’ve also crunched some relevant data to distinguish the key stats in La Quinta. With the TOUR’s ShotLink system only used on the Stadium Course, we must be more cautious than usual when looking at this event. However, we do know that nine winners in the recent past found themselves inside the top 10 of Strokes Gained: Putting on that track for the week and nine winners were also inside the top 10 of Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.

Getting in play off the tee is always important, but the fairways in this event are notoriously some of the easiest to find all season. Scrambling is also critical, but it is one of the easiest weeks to do so with fewer problems around the greens.

With a shootout in play, we should also look at scoring stats like Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage. The reality is, if you’re not moving forward, you’re in reverse.

Just for good measure, I’ve weighted Par-5 Scoring as there’s no doubt players must make moves on the longer holes or risk getting left behind.

OUTRIGHTS

I keep going back to this well and getting close with no cigar, but with the numbers popping, I just can’t let Xander Schauffele (+1100 at BetMGM Sportsbook) go here. First, Schauffele will start at La Quinta. Last year, he opened with a 65 and closed with a 62 to be T3. On top of this, Schauffele was first on TOUR last season in Birdie or Better Percentage, fourth in SG: Approach the Green, fifth in SG: Putting and 13th in Par-5 Scoring.

The top two betting favorites, Scottie Scheffler (+550) and Patrick Cantlay (+1000), also pop in the key stats. Scheffler ranked first on TOUR last season in SG: Approach the Green, was 10th in Birdie or Better Percentage and second in Par-5 Scoring. He has a third here in 2020 and was T11 last year. But until Scheffler produces a top-notch putting week, I can’t advocate him in a shootout at such short odds.

Cantlay, who has finished 26th-9th-2nd-9th in his last four starts at The American Express, was first in Par-5 Scoring, eighth in Birdie or Better Percentage and 18th in SG: Approach the Green. At nearly double Scheffler’s odds, this is a better bet.

But neither is getting my second outright slot. Instead, I’m looking to Tony Finau (+3300) with some juicier odds than those at the very top. Finau was fourth back in 2021 and probably should have won. He ranked fifth last season in SG: Approach the Green, was 15th in Birdies or Better Percentage and 10th in Par-5 Scoring.

PLACE MARKETS

Others to consider in the outright markets who start at La Quinta include Chris Kirk andRickie Fowler at +4000, but I’ll slot the pair as place options.

Kirk has been in form, winning The Sentry and contending again at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He may keep the heater going, so the +320 for a Top 10 looks promising, especially given he was T3 a year ago.

Fowler let me down at The Sentry. And he only has one previous Top 20 at The American Express, but he popped on all my key stats so I’m prepared to give him some love around the +175 for a Top 20. But consider yourself on notice, Rickie.

LONGSHOTS

To be honest, I couldn’t help but see the South African duo of Erik van Rooyen (+10000) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+12500) at long odds and do a double take. Van Rooyen is a recent winner on TOUR and finished T6 at The American Express last season. Bezuidenhout was T11 and can get on a serious heater with his putter at times.

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