Prop Farm: Bettors bullish on another Waialae run for defending champ Si Woo Kim

Who doesn't want to spend another week in Hawaii? The PGA TOUR moves from the island of Maui to Oahu this week for its first Full-Field Event of the 2024 season - the Sony Open in Hawaii contested at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu.

Those that played in The Sentry last week and are making the trip to play the Sony will find a completely different test of golf at Waialae CC versus last week's Plantation Course at Kapalua. The wide-open, expansive and undulating fairways of Kapalua are replaced this week by flat, narrow, (palm) tree-lined fairways that dogleg in both directions.

There isn't any elevation change that sends tee shots rolling down hills. In fact, there may be very little roll-out this week as there has been rain in the Honolulu area and a wet, soft golf course is to be expected. Finally, going from nearly 7,600 yards and a par 73, Waialae is just a shade over 7,000 yards and plays to a par 70.

Outright favorites would be ‘favorable for the book’

If you look at the history of the two events, it is primarily bigger hitters that have won The Sentry and shorter, more accurate plodders that have won the Sony Open. Chris Kirk fits the mold of a shorter, more accurate player with a great short game and has had tremendous success here in the past at Waialae CC - and yet Kirk went on to win last week at Kapalua. Will he go back-to-back? Kirk is currently listed at +2800 at BetMGM Sportsbook to make it two in a row.

But based on early-week action, bettors are looking elsewhere with their outright tickets.

"We're starting to see some money come in and Brian Harman (+2000) seems to be attracting the most handle in the outright market - along with Corey Conners (+2800) and Byeong Hun An (+3300)," said Seamus Magee, sports trader at BetMGM. "The two favorites, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, are both favorable for the book at the moment."

Harman, Conners and An all played last week in Maui. Eight of the last 10 Sony winners played the week before on the islands, as have 17 of the last 25 Sony Open champions. Harman finished in a tie for fifth last week and has two top-15 finishes, a top 20, and a top 5 here at Waialae. Conners has never missed a cut in five trips to the Sony Open with his last four finishes being 12-11-12-3. An finished 12th at the Sony Open last year and was fourth last week at Kapalua. Both Fitzpatrick and Hatton will be making their Sony Open debuts and are trading at +1600.

Other outlets in Las Vegas are also reporting sharp action on both Harman and Kirk, while other players have seen their prices shift in the prop markets. Canadian Adam Svensson (+200) and Justin Rose (+188) have both seen their prices drop for a top-20 finish in early-week wagering.

Svensson is a player I personally like this week. I actually hit him for my longest shot ever, when he won The RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club at +15000 in 2022. Sea Island is a course that I feel translates well over to Waialae CC and we have seen a great deal of crossover success between the two tournaments.

Theegala looking to build on Sentry success

“We saw some sharp play in the First Round Leader market on J.J. Spaun (+5500), Robert Macintyre (+10000) and Emiliano Grillo (+8000),” added Thomas Gable, Director of Race and Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, a BetMGM property.

In the 2022-2023 season, Spaun ranked 18th in First Round Scoring Average and Grillo was 45th. Spaun also ranked seventh on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance. I noted in my Golfbet Recap article last Sunday that Colonial Country Club can be a good indicator when trying to pick a winner at Waialae. Grillo is your defending champion at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, and I expect him to have a good week here. Grillo has recorded a top 20 finish at Sea Island.

It was last week at The Sentry in which Gable saw quite a bit of money come in on Keegan Bradley to top Jason Day in a head-to-head matchup. Day won that matchup handily, which was good for BetMGM. In terms of matchups seeing a lot of action this week at The Borgata, Gable noted, “we took some sharp money on Ben Griffin (+125) in his match up against Aaron Rai (-150).” Eric Cole has also been a popular play both at the Borgata for outright winner (+3000) and in his two head-to-head matchups against Kirk (-140 vs. Cole +120) and Theegala (-110 vs Cole -110).

Even though Theegala was red-hot last week, Cole feels to me like a better fit for this golf course on Oahu. I personally had Theegala outright last week (+7000) and suffered a near-miss on Sunday – but I really liked how Theegala fit The Plantation Course. Obviously, the current form is there for Theegala but Cole had a solid 14th place finish last week too, and I believe his game is more suited for the shorter, narrower, Waialae than it is for Theegala. We’ll see. Both players going along pretty well right now.

Liability mounting on defending champ as Top Asian

Last week Gable mentioned seeing sharp action in the Top Englishman market on Hatton. Hatton pushed on this bet, tying Fitzpatrick at 22 under for the tournament. This week Gable has seen action in the Top Asian market.

“Defending champion Si Woo Kim has been the most popular play in the Top Asian market at +350,” Gable said. “Byeong Hun An (+350) and Hideki Matsuyama (+500) are obviously familiar names to golf bettors, but it’s been Si Woo who we have the liability on.”

Magee mentioned earlier the action on An in the outright market. With the way he played last week, I wouldn’t mind a play on him this week as the Top Asian at The Sony Open.

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