Benny and the Bets: Europeans look to break 58-year Sony Open in Hawaii drought

Europeans never win in Honolulu.

They get overcharged for food and beverage as tourists, pay premiums for hotels and get sucked into discount stores like Ross and Old Navy.

Oh, and they’ve never picked up the Sony Open in Hawaii trophy, either. But perhaps their strongest tilt yet is set to change things.

The top three players on the BetMGM Sportsbook odds board for the Sony Open were members of the recently victorious European Ryder Cup team. But success for their continent has never translated to success at Waialae Country Club.

In all 58 editions of the event, the Europeans have gone home empty. In all, 47 went to the United States, three to Australia, two to South Africa, two to Japan, two to Korea, one to Argentina and one to Fiji.

Now to be fair, most European-based players in the past have usually not started their PGA TOUR seasons in Honolulu. But now, amongst the new strategic partnership with the DP World Tour, more and more Europeans find themselves eligible for PGA TOUR fields.

And so, we have young phenom Ludvig Åberg and his conquering teammates Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick sitting as favorites at +1600, each set to make their Waialae CC debut, before getting to Americans Brian Harman and Russell Henley at +2200.

More European Ryder Cup victors adorn the field with veteran Justin Rose at +4500 and Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre a sneaky longshot at +15000.

Other European hopefuls set to do battle include Aaron Rai (+6600), Alex Noren (+6600), Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+12500), Paul Barjon (+35000), Alexander Björk (+15000), Harry Hall (+25000), Stephan Jaeger (+6600), Martin Laird (+30000), David Lingmerth (+50000), Vincent Norrman (+10000), Matthieu Pavon (+15000), Seamus Power (+12500), Matti Schmid (+12500), David Skinns (+80000), Callum Tarren (+20000), Ben Taylor (+50000), Sami Valimaki (+20000) and Matt Wallace (+10000).

But the question remains: Will any of them break the drought? Of course, they can… But will they?

Recent winners at the Sony Open have had a few things in common. Eight out of the last 10 played in Kapalua the week before winning at Waialae CC and 12 of the last 14 finished their Sony Open week inside the top 10 of Strokes Gained: Putting. Interestingly, last year’s winner (Si Woo Kim) bucked both those trends.

But knowing Fitzpatrick was on Maui last week and finished sixth in SG: Putting at The Sentry gives some optimism. Hatton was 10th in SG: Putting last week. Both finished T14 on the leaderboard. That’s just one event, you say… Well, Hatton ranked seventh in SG: Putting last season, Fitzpatrick 11th.

All of a sudden, they come into focus.

While I am not slotting them as my outright options, I do like them to contend. While the odds are hardly exciting, the top-10 prices for Fitzpatrick (+175) and Hatton (+188) are worth considering.

Åberg was a distant 28th in SG: Putting last week in the Signature Event and his short rookie season numbers would have ranked him 42nd on TOUR last season. His distance is not as huge a bonus here and at short odds, can be slated in the "wait and see" category.

While the odds around the top Europeans don’t excite me, the +15000 for Robert MacIntyre does. This is a generous number for a man who knows how to play in the wind and is coming off a Ryder Cup appearance. Derivative prices like +1200 for the Top 10, +500 for Top 20 and +160 for Top 40 all have some merit while you can get them.

At the end of the day, I am leaning away from a drought-breaking European win and expecting something big from the trio at BetMGM all starting at +2800.

Canadian Corey Conners, American Sahith Theegala and last week's winner, American Chris Kirk, are all shouting their credentials from their shared spot on the odds board.

Theegala went close last week and is a tee-to-green maestro, with the monkey off his back after he won during the FedExCup Fall. He will need to make a fair share of putts, but he pops in sub-par rounds and par-3 scoring, which could prove pivotal. He ranked 17th on TOUR last season in SG: Putting.

Kirk has a history of good finishes at the Sony Open and probably feels he let last year’s title get away from him. Fresh off a huge Signature Event win, his ball-striking around a familiar layout will have others in fear.

And then there is Conners. Four straight top-12s at Waialae CC, plus the fact he is an elite tee-to-green machine. He also ranked 14th on TOUR last season in Birdies or Better from 150-175 yards, a critical distance this week. The key is he must make just a few more putts than usual. It can be done… Just ask Hideki Matsuyama from a few years back.

In summary, here’s what I’m thinking. Add another year to the drought, but don’t overlook the Europeans completely.

Outrights: Sahith Theegala, Corey Conners, Chris Kirk (all +2800)

Top 10: Matt Fitzpatrick (+175), Tyrrell Hatton (+188)

Longshots: Robert MacIntyre, Hayden Buckley (both +15000)

Wildcards: ALL the top putters. Denny McCarthy (+4000), Taylor Montgomery (+8000) and Maverick McNealy (+15000).

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