Prop Farm: Sharps, public divided on head-to-head markets at Kapalua

I have always loved the PGA TOUR kicking off the new year in Hawaii. Having played the Plantation Course at Kapalua personally about a half-dozen times, the excitement of golf returning to the sports schedule at a spectacular venue with which I am very familiar, always gets the fan in me going and the handicapping juices flowing. While the heart of the spring season is still a few weeks away, The Sentry signals new beginnings.

With that, we will also be introducing a slightly new angle to this season's column. It began in March of 2023, that we laid out our plan for a few First Round Leader wagers to consider on a weekly basis. We won't be necessarily going away from that in 2024 but we will also be adding some additional proposition bet markets to explore – and speaking with bookmakers in Las Vegas and beyond, getting their insights into what we are terming the "Prop Farm."

So strap on your gloves, jump on your tractor and join us for this year-long harvest.

Action split among head-to-head options

The Sentry at Kapalua has for many years shown crossover success with Augusta National. Jordan Spieth, Tiger Woods, Zach Johnson – so many players that have had success in Augusta, Georgia, so too have found it here in Maui. I attribute it to some of the similarities in the two layouts. Like Augusta National, the Plantation Course is a massive property with very wide fairways and the biggest greens on TOUR. Both courses also feature a great deal of elevation change and hilly terrain. Driving distance trumps driving accuracy. Both are second-shot golf courses. Scrambling and short game are key at both properties as is three-putt avoidance, long-iron approach play and taking advantage of the par 5s. Keep this in mind as you dive into this week's handicap, as well as two other courses where I find there to be a connection: The Old Course at St. Andrews and Riviera Country Club, home to The Genesis Invitational.

I believe the best market to invest in when betting golf is that of the full-tournament, head-to-head matchups. The smallest hold percentage for the sportsbook is in this market – smaller than anything else on the menu that I know of.

I spoke with Scott Shelton, golf oddsmaker at BetMGM at The Mirage in Las Vegas, and he said, "There is sharp play on Viktor Hovland over Scottie Scheffler head-to-head, and also Collin Morikawa over Scheffler."

Shelton went on to add that the recreational players have gone the other way, playing Scheffler over Morikawa in the head-to-head market.

“The public is also playing (former Sentry winner) Xander Schauffele over Ludvig Åberg," said Shelton.

I am currently seeing Scheffler at -155 over Hovland (+130) at BetMGM and siding with the public here, I don't mind that price on the favorite. I do understand the take on the underdog, Morikawa, at +165 over Scheffler (-200) as I would personally make it a closer match than the price indicates. Despite Morikawa's infamous collapse here on Sunday last year, I believe he will bounce back this year and be right there in contention once again. Schauffele (-135) over Åberg (+115) seems to be about the right price to me.

Liability mounting on … Keegan Bradley?

I also spoke with Thomas Gable, director of the Race and Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, another BetMGM property. Quite a bit of action is coming in on one particular head-to-head matchup at his shop.

“Keegan Bradley (-125) vs. Jason Day (+105) is one of the most heavily-bet tournament matchups this week,” Gable said. “Bradley is the liability for us in this one.”

Gable also said world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler “is taking some money on a prop bet for him to be in the final group in the final round at +275.”

I can’t argue with Scheffler to be in the final group in the final round at a nice price. I like Scheffler’s chances this week to win it outright, so to be in the final group at roughly just half the price makes sense to me. A bit of a hedge here of sorts – maybe he doesn’t hoist the trophy, but you cash if he’s in the final pairing on Sunday.

Public weighing in on Top Englishmen in Hawaii

Looking at the Top Countryman prop market, Gable said, “There is sharp money on Tyrrell Hatton to be the Top Englishman at +240.”

Matt Fitzpatrick has been a popular name thrown out this week to have success at The Sentry. In a bit of a contrarian move, I can get on board with Hatton to take Top Englishman honors – in hopes that his stellar play in 2023 carries over here in Maui.

At The Mirage, Shelton noted, “The public is playing Tommy Fleetwood over Fitzpatrick in a head-to-head tournament matchup.” So maybe Hatton is the Englishman of the five (including Justin Rose and Matt Wallace) that is flying under the radar among the 59-man field.

Eric Cole a popular pick to start sophomore season as First Round Leader

Gable brought up another market that has become so popular in golf betting, noting, “We are seeing sharp play in the First Round Leader market on Tom Kim (+2500), Eric Cole (+4500) and Kurt Kitayama (+6600).”

Cole definitely makes sense to me as a possible FRL candidate. In the 2022-2023 season, he ranked 20th on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in First Round Scoring Average, first in Total Birdies and eighth in Birdies or Better Percentage.

May the Prop Farm bear fruit this season. Aloha and mahalo!

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