Golfbet Insider: The Sentry

Happy 2024, gang! And welcome back for another PGA TOUR season.

My 15th consecutive orbit around the sun in this seat coincides with the return to calendar-year scheduling, so my annual full-membership fantasy ranking got a proper window for the full treatment. As someone who usually prefers operating in the present, I must say that turning back the clock to the days of a genuine offseason was the best holiday gift. Not to mention that I was fresh out of zingers about how fantasy never had a seat at the table during the wraparound era.

If you’ve yet to crack open the beast, it includes all of the necessary material you need to understand the most impactful changes concerning your fantasy strategies. There are 223 golfers slotted, although I owe an apology to Ryan Brehm for unintentionally omitting him. That bums me out because he was one of my favorite stories of 2022 as the chip-and-a-chair winner of the Puerto Rico Open that’s yielded fully exempt status through this season. However, had I not slighted him, he’d have been positioned pretty low in the ranks, anyway.

The familiar one-page printable Cheat Sheet also is there for your live drafts. Salary leaguers continue to receive a special focus throughout with dedicated columns for 2022-23 earnings and asterisks to denote 2024 bargains. Dig in and share if you're willing to equip the competition.

As Golfbet continues to evolve, keep your eyes peeled to our social channels. By its direction, my weekly Sleepers will be categorized by market. This week’s edition for The Sentry includes the customary five golfers, but they are segregated into one outright, one top 5, one top 10 and two top 20s. (When BetMGM opens a market for top 40s, it will join the others so that each market is represented once.) I will continue to track all results of Power Rankings, Sleepers and relevant sections in Golfbet Insider in the recap section of this weekly column.

If you play PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, The Sentry opens Segment 1, which is the new name for the second segment of four in the 2023-24 fantasy season. It was changed during the FedExCup Fall, which became the name of the first phase. There are 10 tournaments contributing to Segment 1, four of which are Signature Events awarding 70 FedExCup bonus points to the winners. Of them, only The Genesis Invitational will have a 36-hole cut of low 50 and ties and all golfers within 10 strokes of the leader. The other three guarantee four rounds to all entrants.

As a result of these new wrinkles, fantasy scoring will rise in the aggregate and fewer gamers will be posting zeroes. However, to dive too deeply into specific plans on where to burn guys à la a "One & Done", utilize the insurance of the bench and remain patient in the tournaments with no cut. Remember that we are all learning on the fly together and believe in your savvy to adjust as you see fit in real time.

Expert Picks still includes the winners, lineups and comments for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, but Golfbet staffers have joined the fun with betting picks on the same page. Perhaps who they tout will influence your fantasy persuasions.

If you’re not already aware, you can connect with me on X publicly or privately about your considerations. I will respond when time allows. If it helps in your inquiry, please share your format, others on your team and if you’re pacing or chasing.

Let’s go!

PULL QUOTE

Mackenzie Hughes (+210 = Top 20) … If there was an exemption that graded on a curve this week, he’s the beneficiary.

At 51st in the 2022-23 FedExCup, the Canuck was first on the outside looking in for entry at Kapalua. That changed a few weeks ago when Jon Rahm (T18) was suspended, thus lifting Hughes into the top-50 bubble for spots in all eight Signature Events in 2024. So, while he’s earned the tee time on Maui officially, it probably feels like a free play, one that he doesn’t want to squander.

Hughes licked his wounds for a few weeks after finishing 51st, but he regained composure to surge into the holiday hiatus with finishes of T7 and solo second, and that was before the promise of this week’s appearance.

Physically and mentally, he’s in prime position to capitalize on the opportunity as he targets his first top 20 in four trips, and the onsite vibe aligns with his buoyancy upon arrival. When asked about it on Tuesday, he confirmed what we’d expect to hear about the feels.

My take: I’ve always been beholden to the power of the absence of a negative. That’s different than the darker spin of withholding a truth to enhance an opinion or manipulate a narrative. Hughes should be happy for the basic fact that he’s eligible to compete. Still, the construct of how his 2024 was altered so significantly in the best of ways and more recently than any of the other 58 in the field is an unquantifiable boost of a bonus. For an emotional and thoughtful veteran, he’s poised to embrace the moment and establish a personal best at Kapalua.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Jan. 3, at 3:30 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Jason Day (+300 = Top 10) … Just like we shouldn’t get too jazzed up when a notable sets a course record at home or breaks 60 outside of official competition, it’s unwise to put too much stock into a team victory in an unofficial capacity. But a little doesn’t hurt! The Aussie partnered with Lydia Ko to win the Grant Thornton Invitational in golf’s return to a collaboration of the PGA TOUR and LPGA. (See its full-field recap below.) Day had been grinding way too much for months, all the while spiking for a title on his own ball at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and a co-runner-up at The Open Championship. That kind of infrequency contributes to longer odds at Kapalua, so hop aboard the most recent good vibes.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Corey Conners (+220 = Top Canadian)
• Lucas Glover (+210 = Top 20)
• Kurt Kitayama (+240 = Top 20)
• Luke List (+188 = Top 20)
• Denny McCarthy (+350 = Top 10)
• Andrew Putnam (+210 = Top 20)
• Sepp Straka (+550 = Top Continental European)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Seamus Power … Discomfort in his right hip that flared in early September remained worrisome enough to thwart a title defense at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in late October, but he already had shored up the full slate of Signature Events by finishing inside the top 50 of the FedExCup, so he could afford to rest and fully recover. As he sizes up his third appearance at Kapalua, he presents as an unknown in terms of potential impact because he hasn’t played since August, but sharks in DFS likely will be all over him as a contrarian sans a track record that would otherwise attract course-history buffs. That’s his best spot in getting back after it, especially since he’s guaranteed four rounds, albeit on a serious test of a walk on the side of the mountain.

Byeong Hun An (+170 = Top 20) … Suspended for the entirety of the FedExCup Fall after testing positive for a banned substance, he still finished inside the top 50 of the FedExCup, so he’s eligible for all Signature Events. No doubt he’s eager to launch into the new year and continue his march of form that generated his best season on the PGA TOUR.

NOTABLE WDs

Rory McIlroy … It would be surprising only if he committed. He’s qualified 13 times and competed only once (T4, 2019).

RECAP – The RSM Classic

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking/Golfer = Result

1 Brian Harman = T44
2 Eric Cole = T3
3 Justin Suh = T64
4 Ludvig Åberg = Win
5 J.T. Poston = T44
6 Camilo Villegas = T58
7 Corey Conners = T44
8 Alex Noren = T23
9 Russell Henley = T13
10 Taylor Pendrith = MC
11 Matti Schmid = MC
12 J.J. Spaun = T13
13 Adam Svensson = T5
14 Akshay Bhatia = T38
15 Ryan Palmer = MC

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result

• Patton Kizzire (+180 = Top 40) = T44
• Satoshi Kodaira (+200 = Top 40) = T75
• *Ben Kohles (+125 = Top 40) = T5
• *Matt NeSmith (+125 = Top 40) = T28
• Henrik Norlander (+600 = Top 20) = MC

GOLFBET INSIDER
Bet = Result

• PULL QUOTE: Zach Johnson (+160 = Top 40) = MC
• WILD CARD: Matt Kuchar (+175 = Top 20) = T53
• *ALSO STARRING: Luke List (+188 = Top 20) = T19
• *ALSO STARRING: Ludvig Åberg, Russell Henley and Cameron Young (-105 = All to Make the Cut) = Win/T13/T38
• ALSO STARRING: Si Woo Kim (+210 = Miss the Cut) = T71
• TAP-IN: Will Gordon (+375 = Top 20) = T36
• TAP-IN: Padraig Harrington (+170 = Top 40) = MC
• TAP-IN: Mark Hubbard (+115 = Top 40) = MC
• TAP-IN: Justin Lower (+160 = Top 40) = MC
• *TAP-IN: Denny McCarthy (+160 = Top 20) = T5
• TAP-IN: Troy Merritt (+180 = Top 40) = MC
• TAP-IN: Doc Redman (+240 = Top 40) = MC
• TAP-IN: Matti Schmid (+125 = Top German) = MC
• TAP-IN: Robert Streb (+225 = Top 40) = T64
• TAP-IN: Josh Teater (+260 = Top 40) = MC
• TAP-IN: Davis Thompson (+225 = Top 20) = T53
• TAP-IN: Camilo Villegas (+175 = Top South American) = T58 [Tano Goya = T19]
• *TAP-IN: Vince Whaley (+130 = Top 40) = T13

* - For the recommendations above, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

RECAP – Hero World Challenge

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking/Golfer = Result

1 Viktor Hovland = 10th
2 Collin Morikawa = 7th
3 Max Homa = T13
4 Scottie Scheffler = Win
5 Justin Thomas = 3rd
6 Matt Fitzpatrick = T4
7 Keegan Bradley = T13
8 Tony Finau = T4
9 Rickie Fowler = 17th
10 Cameron Young = 15th
11 Sepp Straka = 2nd
12 Lucas Glover = 12th
13 Sam Burns = 16th
14 Jordan Spieth = 6th
15 Brian Harman = T8
16 Justin Rose = T8
17 Wyndham Clark = 19th
18 Will Zalatoris = 20th
19 Jason Day = 11th
20 Tiger Woods = 18th

RECAP – Grant Thornton Invitational

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking/Team = Result

1 Nelly Korda-Tony Finau = T4
2 Rose Zhang-Sahith Theegala = T9
3 Céline Boutier-Harris English = 12th
4 Brooke Henderson-Corey Conners = 2nd
5 Megan Khang-Denny McCarthy = T4
6 Ruoning Yin-Nick Taylor = 8th
7 Madelene Sagström-Ludvig Åberg = 3rd
8 Lilia Vu-Joel Dahmen = T9
9 Cheyenne Knight-Tom Hoge = 16th
10 Lexi Thompson-Rickie Fowler = T6
11 Andrea Lee-Billy Horschel = T14
12 Charley Hull-Justin Rose = T9
13 Lydia Ko-Jason Day = Win
14 Allisen Corpuz-Cameron Champ = T14
15 Leona Maguire-Lucas Glover = T6
16 Mel Reid-Russell Henley = 13th

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