Benny and the Bets: What to do with short-priced favorites at The Sentry

The most eye-opening moment of the new year for me was not the lavish fireworks display I saw amongst the throng of people on the Las Vegas strip, but instead the odds applied to Scottie Scheffler for the PGA TOUR’s opening event of the 2024 season.

Scheffler is listed as the +550 favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook for The Sentry at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii, this week, the dawning of a new era on TOUR as we go back to calendar-year seasons and we open with one of eight Signature Events.

My eyes were peeled for the opening odds for those on the picturesque Hawaiian island of Maui because we’ve just come off a season where betting the favorite each week on TOUR would have netted a tidy profit.

In the 2022-23 season, had you bet $100 a week on just the betting favorite – you could have turned your $5,400 outlay into $8,450. That’s a $3,050 profit.

This came from just eight wins in 54 events but that’s still 14.8% of the time… so should we be looking to do the same in 2024?

A lot of this comes down to just how well do we expect Scheffler to play this season, because the Texan is likely to occupy the pole position on many occasions, perhaps threatened only by Rory McIlroy at the top of the pile.

Others, like FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland, could perhaps steal the mantle if they start the season hot.

My positivity towards the theory of backing the favorites in 2024 was tempered when I saw the odds. The +550 price certainly doesn’t feel like a number to jump on given Scheffler’s lack of success at Kapalua in the past, and the fact we now have more competitors in the field at 58 – up from the usual 30 or so.

Scheffler is indeed coming off a win at the Hero World Challenge in December, and a season of tee-to-green excellence only bettered by Tiger Woods in his prime. But he also had issues putting on occasion, and his T7 and T13 Maui returns aren’t overly exciting.

Going back to our eight wins for the favorites last season: those odds ranged from +600 to +1400. Already we are getting ‘unders’ here.

Interestingly enough, Hovland is next on the board at +800 but he also has failed to show his best stuff at Kapalua. The Norwegian star has never been higher than T18 in three starts.

So, while I started the year thinking I was all-in on the favorites, already I’m ready to jump ship. Instead, if you are feeling particularly strong on either of the two at the top of the board, consider other options.

Option 1 – Just wait. Short of one of the players going out with a 63 or 64 or something similar in the opening round, they will have similar (or possibly higher) odds. Of course, they may be a few shots behind the lead as well. But both are good enough to make up a deficit. And if they play poorly, well, you’ve saved your money.

Option 2 – Consider them for a small first-round leader bet at higher odds. Scheffler (+1100) and Hovland (+1400) could then give you a better payout should they start hot and if they don’t, then you can decide if you want to jump on the outright market with three rounds to go. The risk here is if they start well, but don’t lead. One shot back of the lead leaves you without a payout and with shorter outright odds.

I’m looking elsewhere.

The recent winners at Kapalua have obviously had to go low and they’ve all fared exceptionally well for the week in Strokes Gained: Putting. The fairways aren’t difficult to hit so it’s getting the ball in the hole that counts.

Which brings me further down the lines of betting if you are looking for an outright pick.

Xander Schauffele (+1400) immediately pops out to me. Having been at many of the events over the last decade in Maui, I’ve seen first-hand his affinity for the layout. He won in 2019 and backed it up with a T2 in 2020 and a T5 in 2021.

While some might argue his 12th place in 2022 and a WD in 2023 show a regression on the island, I’m going to choose to focus on the motivated bulldog of a player I spent countless hours around.

He averages 66 in his last four final rounds in Kapalua, including a 62 to win.

I’ve seen his play sharpen when others doubt or forget him, or even if he just perceives they do. And it certainly helps that Schauffele was ranked fifth in SG: Putting last season.

Right behind him in sixth in SG: Putting was none other than Max Homa (+1200). He’s coming off another great year with recent success on the DP World Tour in South Africa and he was T3 in Maui just a year ago. He had a somewhat slow start but he’ll be ready to go from the start this time around.

If you are looking towards the place markets, I’ve got my eye on a player who is returning to the island for the first time in a while.

Rickie Fowler (+220 for Top 10) has been a sporadic visitor to The Sentry over the years but in all four has cashed inside the top six. He is a player who loves the Hawaii vibe and has worked out the key to playing well there.

I’m expecting a big year from Cam Davis also this season and he represents a solid longshot at +6600 but the plus-money price (+150) for a top 20 is conservatively another option. The beginning of last season was spoiled by illness, but this time he’s hopefully fighting fit. He finished T10 in his previous appearance in 2022.

As for the favorites from here on out, let’s see how the odds look in Full-Field events. Perhaps we will get a little more value to play the trend after all.

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