Analyzing key betting lessons from Tiger's return

There was the good, the bad and the ugly when it came to the latest comeback of superstar Tiger Woods last week. But how should the betting public react to the 82-time PGA TOUR winner’s return?

Optimism abounds around Woods at any sign of life … a common occurrence for aging superstar athletes who have provided so much awe and excitement for the public on their playing field of choice.

We always crave one more. One more epic match from someone like tennis great Rafael Nadal. One more flash of unequaled brilliance from Serena Williams. And dare we say it when it comes to Woods … one more win.

Having not played since the Masters in April before another ankle surgery, Woods fashioned rounds of 75-70-71-72 at Albany to finish at even par in 18th place out of 20 competitors. It wasn’t close to a win, but we knew not to expect that. Yet.

Was there enough in his performance to let the heart start joining the head when it comes to Woods, who turns 48 on Dec. 30?

The man himself believes he can still win. He wouldn’t have returned otherwise. And for the first time in a long time, he has publicly stated the goal of playing once a month or so in 2024 — a welcome change from leaving the golf world hanging in the lead-up to each big upcoming event.

“Once a month seems reasonable, and it gives me a couple weeks to recover and a week to tune up. Maybe I can get into a rhythm or something like that; that’s what the plan was going into next year, and I don’t see why that would change,” Woods said last week.

Speculation is already rampant, but the best guess into what events that would be are: The Genesis Invitational, Feb. 15-18 at The Riviera Country Club, where Woods again acts as tournament host; THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass from March 14-17; the Masters at Augusta National from April 11-14; the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club from May 16-19; the U.S. Open at Pinehurst from June 13-16; and The Open Championship at Royal Troon from July 18-21.

Here are some of the betting lessons learned about the 15-time major winner ahead of his 2024 appearances.

1. He’s still hungry to win

Woods has never been the type to become a ceremonial golfer. He needs to believe he can not only compete but win. And so, with that, we can believe it is possible also. Sure, it might not be probable, but few expected him to win the 2019 Masters and yet he has the trophy to prove it.

“I love competing, I love playing," Woods said at Albany. "I miss being out here with the guys, I miss the camaraderie and the fraternity-like atmosphere out here and the overall banter. But what drives me is I love to compete.

“There will come a point in time, I haven't come around to it fully yet, that I won't be able to win again. When that day comes … I'm going to walk away.”

When asked if that meant he still believes he can win, he was resolute as always: “Absolutely."

I, for one, believe Woods. And while he believes he can win, he becomes a realistic betting option in certain markets. Winning might be tough, but top 10s on courses that suit him – it’s not beyond the realm of possibility. And with Woods’ odds climbing to historic highs, the opportunity may yet knock.

2. Fitness is a key factor

After finishing up 72 holes, Woods admitted to being a bit sore. This is his reality. And Albany is not the toughest terrain to conquer. He knows his once-a-month playing dreams depend on his fitness. His fused ankle is the latest body part he needs to focus on heavily during recovery.

As bettors, this becomes workable knowledge though. Do you perhaps look to Woods to start fast but fade? Do you take the other side of a matchup in the third or fourth round? For the record, Woods lost his 18-hole matchups against Justin Thomas (Round 1), Viktor Hovland (Round 3) and Sam Burns (Round 4) but tied with Rickie Fowler in Round 2.

“It's just a matter of getting in better shape basically," he added from the Bahamas. "I feel like my game's not that far off, but I need to get in better shape.

“I don't have the bone pain that I did. But I still have to go through the same protocols. It takes a long time. That's the unfortunate thing about aging and trying to do something that either I've worn out my body or trying to keep up with the younger people, it takes a long time pre- and post. You spend more time in the treatment room and weight room than you do on a golf course. That's just part of wanting to hang around as an athlete.”

While his limp returned throughout the tournament, he looked as jacked up as ever. His training schedule between now and February will be geared as such because …

3. He still has TOUR-level distance

From his opening 326-yard drive down the middle, Woods showed he can still match it with the big boys on TOUR. So, while his aging body needs tender love and care, it’s not like he needs to rely on a savvy long iron game to keep up with the kids, so to speak. He ranked fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

“The best part of the week is the way I drove it," said Woods. "I drove it on pretty much a string all week. Granted, these fairways are big. I felt like I had my ball speed up, which was nice, and I was hitting the middle of the face the entire week, which is nice.

“So it's not like I have to go and try and find something the next few weeks or something going into next year; what I've been working on is right there and maybe just tighten up a little bit.”

As we delve further into live betting does Woods become a candidate to outdrive his playing partners on certain holes, perhaps at underdog odds?

4. Approach and short game rust can be removed

The reasons Woods struggled to compete with his peers last week were evident. He ranked last in SG: Approach, 19th out of 20 in Proximity and also lost strokes to the field on and around the greens.

His approach prowess was unrivaled at his peak, and with more reps, one can believe his irons will return to a higher standard. As for short game, any weekend hacker can tell you that is perhaps the part of the game most susceptible to rust.

Woods hit just 58% of greens in regulation. That’s not a standard I expect to continue. He made less than half his sand saves. Again, I expect improvement. He had three 3-putts over the first two rounds, something he hates.

Heading back to the betting applications and specifically live betting, keeping tabs on Woods' form opens the door for selecting when birdies (he had 19 of them at Albany) or bogeys (15 bogeys and two double bogeys) might prop up.

The Bottom Line

When Woods returns to competition, likely at Riviera in February, you won’t see me advocating for an outright bet – no matter how high the odds get. After all, Woods couldn’t win at Riviera in his prime. But you may see me finding other areas to look at in the pro-Woods category.

Would a Woods win at Augusta or Royal Troon be beyond epic? Yes. Yes, it would.

But can it happen? Yes. Yes, it can.