Top of board looms large for First Round Leader at Hero

Kind of like a little pre-holiday stocking stuffer, the Hero World Challenge gives us a wonderful, star-studded golf appetizer before we turn the calendar and dive into "the whole enchilada" that is the 2024 PGA TOUR season. Held at Albany in the Bahamas since 2015, this event has always been a great treat to hold us over during the winter months.

And this year, tournament host Tiger Woods will be a part of the 20-player field -- his first time in action since April when he withdrew from the Masters due to lingering injuries. It’s his first appearance here at this event since 2019.

Woods is not expected to win this week. BetMGM lists him at +6600, a few ticks higher than Lucas Glover at +5000. Woods is twice the price of the next closest longshots, Brian Harman, Jason Day and Will Zalatoris, who are all at +3300. But his presence in the field alone is cause for tremendous excitement -- and of course, wagering opportunities. To be the First Round Leader, BetMGM lists Woods at +2800, sharing the longest odds on the board with Glover.

Albany is an Ernie Els design and very unique in the way it sets up. Five par 5s, five par 3s and eight par 4s make up the layout. The fairways are very wide, there is very little rough, the Bermudagrass greens are on the smaller side and all five par 3s stretch to 180-yards or more. In total, Albany is a par 72 measuring at 7,499 yards.

Strokes Gained data is not tracked at this event, so we cannot use this as a pointer to see necessarily where success has come from at the Hero World Challenge in the past. History will show, however, that players who've won recently have carried that current form over in successful fashion here. We've also seen players have success here that have fared well on links-style designs.

Viktor Hovland is your two-time defending Hero champion. He is arguably the hottest player on the planet, coming off of a successful Ryder Cup and a FedExCup title. In three trips to The Open Championship, Hovland has finished T12-T4-T13, so the links-style connection fits, too. Hovland is both the favorite to win the tournament -- and make it three straight this week -- as well as be your First Round Leader.

Obviously, with only a 20-person field, the odds are going to be shorter as a whole and while I may eat some chalk this week, I’m going to steer clear of the shortest shot on the board in Hovland.

Scottie Scheffler (+750)

OK, so I took the second shortest shot -- and second to Hovland is exactly what Scheffler has been in the last two editions of the Hero World Challenge. There really isn't any current form except for what we saw out of Scheffler at the Ryder Cup, which was his last competitive event. He has fared well on links courses though, finishing T8-T21-T23 in three tries at The Open Championship and T3 last year at the Genesis Scottish Open. We know about his stellar approach play -- and unfortunately, we also know about his struggles with the putter. But he is No. 1 in this field over the last 24 rounds for Birdies or Better Gained, Greens in Regulation Gained, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Par 5s. Scheffler also finished the 2023 season on TOUR ranked No. 1 in First Round Scoring and in Bogey Avoidance.

Max Homa (+1000)

Homa is one player in the field who does have a recent win, capturing the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa just three weeks ago for his first international victory. He also took T12 at the Genesis Scottish Open last year and followed that up with a T10 finish at Royal Liverpool at The Open Championship a week later. He's second in this field to Scheffler over the last 24 rounds in Birdies or Better Gained and is third in SG: Off the Tee. Homa also ranks ninth in the field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). Finally, Homa finished the 2023 season ranked 15th on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance and eighth in First Round Scoring Average.

Homa definitely feels like the hotter player at the moment, but it is hard to ignore what Scheffler has done all year and here in the Bahamas the last two years -- so we'll sprinkle a little on each and root them home, while at the same time, we enjoy the Big Cat’s return to action.

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