Beau Hossler, proven players on Paspalum grass lead First Round Leader options

A new course brings new challenges but there are still plenty of clues to dive into when looking for a first-round leader play for the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante in Los Cabos, Mexico.

This resort course is designed by none other than Tiger Woods, the first time the PGA TOUR will play on a Woods design. This is the fifth of seven FedExCup Fall events.

Sitting at the tip of Baja in the resort area of Cabo San Lucas, the golf course is a Par 72 that measures over 7,400 yards. Like Vidanta Vallarta, home to the Mexico Open, El Cardonal features Paspalum grass fairways and greens - both of which are huge. The fairways are as much as 60 yards wide. There is no rough to speak of and the majority of the par 4s fall between 450 and 500 yards long. Three of the four par 3s will play to around 200 yards and the golf course has just one water hazard.

For these TOUR professionals, I believe it is safe to assume that we will be kicking off November with a birdie-fest south of the border. The oddsmakers seem to think so too as I've seen the winning score proposition bet posted at 23.5-under par.

Like the players, this is the first time for us bettors seeing the golf course as well. The stats I looked at this week are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance and Hole Proximity from 150-200 yards, Strokes Gained Par 4s (450-500 yards) and Birdies or Better Gained. For First Round Leader purposes, I am also going to consider 3-Putt Avoidance. With these greens being so large, three-putts could be in play and if we are going to find a player putting together one outlier, low round on Thursday, it will be a round that won't likely include any three-putts.

Beau Hossler (+3500)

Hossler has been one of the hottest players during this fall stretch on TOUR. He has yet to miss a cut and continues to finish progressively better each week. He finished T30 at the Fortinet Championship in Napa, T28 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and has recorded two straight top 10s since then, finishing runner-up at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP most recently. He's shown the ability to go low early too, firing a 62 to kick things off three weeks ago at the Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 23rd in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 15th on the par 4s, 16th in Birdies or Better Gained and 11th on TOUR in 3-Putt Avoidance. It was earlier this year, back in April, when Hossler finished 10th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, closing with a round of 66. The stats are a green light for me as are the correlated courses and we know he's in form. He is one of the shorter priced players in this market as well as the outright winner board, with good reason.

Stephan Jaeger (+3500)

Over the last 24 rounds, Jaeger ranks sixth in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 23rd for SG: Approach and is 18th in Birdies or Better Gained. Back in 2018, Jaeger finished 16th at this event on a differently-designed course with similar Paspalum greens. Jaeger is a decent putter, ranking 81st on TOUR for 3-Putt Avoidance in Round 1. Back in April, Jaeger opened with a round of 65 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Emiliano Grillo (+4000)

Like both Hossler and Jaeger, Grillo too has shown the ability to have success on the Paspalum surface. He finished 10th, ninth, and 15th at the World Wide Technology Championship in consecutive years and then took eighth in 2020. Earlier this year, he finished fifth at Vidanta, shooting all four rounds in the 60s. In fact, over the last 12 rounds, Grillo ranks eighth in this field for SG: Putting on Paspalum grass. The form appears to be back as well. After missing the cut at both the Sanderson Farms and the Shriners, he finished fourth two weeks ago at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, opening with a round of 70. Grillo ranks 28th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average and 53rd for 3-Putt Avoidance.

I believe, and the odds board will say as much too, that all three of these players have a chance to win this entire tournament. Let's hope that pursuit begins with an especially low round on Thursday.

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