Golfbet Insider: World Wide Technology Championship

Finally.

Although it might seem absurd given everything that Ludvig Åberg already has accomplished as a professional golfer, he will not officially be classified as a PGA TOUR rookie until he strikes his ball on the tee at the par-4 10th hole at El Cardonal at Diamante at 12:49 p.m. local time on Thursday. That’s where he begins his opening round of the World Wide Technology Championship, which is his 10th as a member.

Rookie eligibility on the PGA TOUR is cut and dried, it just doesn’t seem that way. There are if-thens and go-arounds on the flowchart to the definition, one of which is a minimum requirement of 10 starts as a member. Oh, and that’s only if he hasn’t exceeded seven starts as a non-member in a previous season. This is why first-time PGA TOUR members Justin Suh and MJ Daffue are not eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2022-23. Each eliminated the possibility during the super season of 2020-21 when Suh appeared 11 times and Daffue nine, each as a non-member.

Åberg was the first-ever valedictorian of PGA TOUR University earlier this year. That yielded immediate membership through 2024 for which it would have been possible that he’d retain rookie eligibility if he didn’t make 10 starts in the extended 2022-23 season or finish inside the top 125 of the FedExCup at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall. Indeed, that latter achievement also automatically locks in a new guy as a member and possibly a rookie (based on starts at a non-member in a previous season) regardless of how many starts he’s made in the same season. Oh, and that also applies to a non-member who hasn’t exhausted rookie eligibility and has totaled the equivalent of FedExCup points that would slot him inside the same top-125 bubble.

At 99th in the FedExCup, Åberg will be checking that box as well when the results of The RSM Classic are plugged in, so he’s promised to be a rookie this season even if he sits out the last three. That’s unlikely as he’s also planning to peg it at The RSM Classic.

My Rookie Ranking is in its 15th year of existence, but this is the first season in which it’s been a thread exclusively on X. Currently, 31 rookies appear in it. If Åberg doesn’t withdraw before his first round this week, he’ll be added to the table in next week’s edition. However, even if he prevails in either of his scheduled starts coming up, Eric Cole likely will retain the inside lane for the hardware.

Philip Knowles sits last in the Rookie Ranking because he’s missed considerable time due to a serious injury to his right thumb. He is not in this week’s field, and if he doesn’t play in either of the last two tournaments of the FedExCup Fall, then he will retain his rookie eligibility for 2024 because he’ll finish with nine starts this season.

I’ve been tracking notable non-members on X as well all season. You can navigate to that here. If you do, note that some non-members have exhausted rookie eligibility in a prior season.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Justin Suh (+320 = Top 10): Yes, he just finished T10 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP where he was the 54-hole leader, but this endorsement is attached to acceptance of his own trajectory and self-awareness of his learning curve. He’s so in the moment that the results present more as outcomes of his process, not achievements. On an aside, proven members of the class of 2019 recently have prevailed – Viktor Hovland at the TOUR Championship and Collin Morikawa at the ZOZO. Of course, Suh was supposed to be part of that upstart contingent. While he doesn’t care about that now, it still would be a nifty narrative to join the party even if surprisingly later than anticipated.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Nov. 1, at 5:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on X if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Chris Kirk (+320 = Group C lowest score: 72 holes) [others in the group: +320=Luke List; +350=Akshay Bhatia; +400=Justin Suh; +400=Taylor Pendrith]: Both List and Bhatia are in my Power Rankings but that’s largely due to their ceiling. When considering the floors of this fivesome, it can be argued that Kirk’s is the highest or at least the most stable over time. Suh is the speculative option for the aggressive.

Thomas Detry (+140 = Top 20): Because of his consistently strong form over time, he won’t sneak up on anyone, thus his relatively flat kickback for this finish, but he’s not lighting stages on fire, either. He’s had only one top 20 in his last 13 starts worldwide spanning five months. So, the smart hedge for which a fraction of a unit could be tossed is for him to miss the cut at +230. At least there’s bang for that buck on a guy who relies on a short game to pick up the pieces instead of irons that play up in El Cardonal’s debut. He’s also T155 on the PGA TOUR in par-5 scoring.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Chesson Hadley (+250 = Top 20)
• Ryo Ishikawa (+700 = Top Asian)
• Taylor Montgomery (+170 = Miss the Cut)
• Sam Ryder (+110 = Top 40)
• Callum Tarren (+175 = Top Brit and Irish)
• Vince Whaley (+250 = Top 20)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Maverick McNealy (+110 = Top 40): He made no noise inside the ropes after returning from a torn ligament in his upper body that I had forgotten that he played at all, much less another 10 times through the second week of June. It didn’t slow him down personally, however, as he earned his pilot’s license and got engaged, so he’s been a quick study as it concerns balance overall. Now eager to pay off early-season success that has him positioned 121st in the FedExCup, one solid payday would eliminate the need for a medical extension in 2024. For his return, lean on his long-range planning and capitalize his rare plus-value for this finish.

C.T. Pan (+140 = Top 40): A sore lower back forced him out of the Shriners Children’s Open before his second round, so he’s rested for almost a full three weeks. It was further disappointing because he had finished T9 at the Sanderson Farms Championship the week prior. Now 124th in the FedExCup but poised for a medical extension (due to an injured left wrist early in 2023) next year, if necessary. Invest a fraction of a unit.

Jim Herman: Walked off TPC Summerlin during his first round of the Shriners with an injured ankle. It was not specified which one was bothering him but it wasn’t a small matter as he was 7-over at the turn when he shut it down. The quintessential chip-and-a-chair performer will need another magic trick to climb from 195th in the FedExCup with only three tournaments remaining on his fully exempt status by virtue of his win at the 2020 Wyndham Championship and one-year adjustment to eligibility criteria triggered by the pandemic.

NOTABLE WDs

Joel Dahmen: Although there have been several weeks off in the last two months, this is the first tournament for which he’s been eligible and sat out since July. He’s safely inside the bubble to retain his card, but at 76th and 217.407 FedExCup points outside the top 60, he’d need to do some damage at either or both of the remaining two events to crash The Next 10.

Kevin Streelman: This is the first time that he’s withdrawn after the commitment deadline and pre-tournament since the 2019 John Deere Classic, but there’s a good reason. He alerted his followers on X on Monday that he tested positive for COVID-19. He added that his plan is to return at The RSM Classic in two weeks. No matter what, at 93rd in the FedExCup, he’s a lock to return for his 17th consecutive season on the PGA TOUR.

RECAP – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result

• Thomas Detry (+160 = Top 20) = T51
• *Yuki Inamori (+140 = Top 40) = T16
• *Young-han Song (+188 = Top 40) = T31
• Callum Tarren (+275 = Top English) = T31 (Harry Hall and Aaron Rai = T21)
• Brandon Wu (+240 = Top 20) = T51

GOLFBET INSIDER
Bet = Result

• WILD CARD: Keita Nakajima (+500 = Top 10) = T51
• ALSO STARRING: Nicolai Højgaard (+140 = Top 20) = T31
• ALSO STARRING: Adam Scott (+100 = Top 20) = T41
• TAP-IN: Cam Davis (+350 = Group B lowest score: 72 holes) [others in the group: +300=Min Woo Lee; +300=Sahith Theegala; +375=Keegan Bradley; +450=Adam Scott] = T12 (Min Woo Lee = T6)
• TAP-IN: Shugo Imahira (+160 = Top 40) = T68
• TAP-IN: Takumi Kanaya (+200 = Top 20) = T31
• TAP-IN: David Lipsky (+110 = Top 40) = T51
• *TAP-IN: Matt NeSmith (+240 = Top 20) = 15th

* For the recommendations above, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

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