Odds Outlook: Swede sensation Ludvig Åberg favored to claim maiden TOUR victory in Mexico

With a week off after returning from Japan, the FedExCup Fall tees it up again in the Western Hemisphere for the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante in Los Cabos, Mexico. The PGA TOUR has staged this event south of the border every year since 2007. The Tiger Woods design, opened in 2014, debuts as tournament host.

Ludvig Åberg (+900) tops the odds board this week at BetMGM Sportsbook, as he did not need many starts this summer to introduce himself to the world of professional golf. His first top-10 payday on the PGA TOUR came in his fourth start as a professional. Two months later he picked up his first win as a pro on the DP World Tour, three weeks before helping Team Europe to a Ryder Cup victory. Not even the pressure of playing and performing in that pressure cauldron has bothered the Swedish sensation. Returning days after the celebrations in Europe, he stormed back at Sanderson Farms to force a playoff before settling for a P2 result. The last time he pegged it, he signed for a closing 62 in Las Vegas to cash T13.

Cameron Young (+1400) ends his 10-week hiatus at El Cardonal (7,452 yards, par 72) on the Baja Peninsula. After an eerily quiet first six months of 2023, the big-hitter knocked off back-to-back top-10 paychecks at the John Deere Classic followed by The Open, before missing out at the 3M Open to close his regular season. Cashing T31 and T15 in the first two FedExCup Playoffs events did not spring him to the final event at East Lake, and he did not qualify for the Ryder Cup. With a pair of top-10 finishes in the last two Open Championships and a podium at a blustery Hero Challenge last December, he’s proven he can control his ball flight on coastal links.

Sahith Theegala (+1600) picked up his first victory on TOUR at Silverado Resort to start the FedExCup Fall in September. Another resort course beckons this week as massive fairways and greens will welcome the field in Mexico. The former Pepperdine man will enjoy the big targets this week off the tee and into the Paspalum greens. An ace on and around the greens, he ranks 15th in SG: Putting and 23rd in SG: Around the Green. Looking to pick up his 27th check from his 31st start, it’s obvious he’s not satisfied with just one win as he tees it up in his third country in his last three starts (T19, ZOZO; WIN, Fortinet).

With back-to-back victories to conclude the regular season at the Wyndham Championship and begin the FedExCup Playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Lucas Glover (+2200) cashed T22 or better in eight of his last 10 events. Riding the momentum of his first two-win season, the ball-striking machine makes his first start since East Lake in late August.

Cashing in the top seven in his last two starts, Beau Hossler (+2200) has done everything but kick down the door for his first win on TOUR. The last time the Californian finished outside the top 30 (when making the cut) was the end of May. Cashing in his previous five outings, he’s 42-under aggregate in four FedExCup Fall events. Sitting No. 51 in the FedExCup Fall standings, he has already locked up starts in two Signature Events next year with his autumnal run.

Stephan Jaeger (+2800) joins Hossler as the only player at the top of the board without a PGA TOUR victory trophy on the mantle. The cut-making machine has posted 28 paychecks from his last 31, events with seven of the last eight results cashing T34 or better. The caveat is he’s only posted two top-10 paydays during this impressive run, but everyone needs a bit of luck to take that final step.

Emiliano Grillo (+2800) would be one of the leaders this week in SG: Paspalum if such a category officially existed. Twice on the podium on the Paspalum of Puerto Rico, he’s also procured top-10 paychecks in Malaysia and two different tracks in Mexico on the saltwater-loving surface. Already a winner in 2023 at another of his favorite venues, Colonial Country Club, he will look to add to his T10 last time out at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. T31 or better in six of his last eight suggests his form is in order.

PGA professional Michael Block is among the 132-man field this week, having qualified as the section champion after winning the Southern California Match Play. Block surprised at the PGA Championship and will make his sixth PGA TOUR start this season, but he is listed as a +75000 longshot to win this week.

Here's a look at some of the other notable names in the field this week in Mexico, with odds via BetMGM:

+3300: Adam Svensson, Chris Kirk, Justin Suh, Thomas Detry, Luke List

+4000: Akshay Bhatia, Keith Mitchell, Mark Hubbard, Matt Kuchar, Taylor Pendrith

+4500: Davis Thompson, K.H. Lee, Taylor Montgomery

+5000: Ben Griffin, Lucas Herbert

+5500: Cameron Champ, Joel Dahmen

+6600: Callum Tarren, Chesson Hadley, Chris Gotterup, Davis Riley, Doug Ghim, Erik van Rooyen, Greyson Sigg, Maverick McNealy, Michael Kim, Sam Ryder, Tyler Duncan, Vince Whaley, Chad Ramey, Lanto Griffin, Nick Hardy

+8000: Robby Shelton, Austin Eckroat, Brandon Wu, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Kuest

+9000: Harry Hall, Troy Merritt, Will Gordon

+10000: Adam Long, C.T. Pan, David Lipsky, Henrik Norlander, Matti Schmid, Nate Lashley, Ryan Moore

How it works:

• Field of 132 players
• Top 65 and ties play the weekend
• Purse of $8.2 million with the winner taking home $1.476 million, plus 500 FedExCup points
• The winner is also eligible for The Sentry, Masters and PGA Championship in 2024.

Circle back Tuesday as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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