How Adam Schenk can add to a career year with First Round Leader honors in Japan

One of the very first things we see every morning is the sunrise, and one of the very first bets we can cash every week on the PGA TOUR is the First Round Leader. So it feels somewhat synchronous to try to pick a First Round Leader in the Land of the Rising Sun. Yes, the TOUR is in Japan this week, at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

This will be the fourth time the ZOZO has been held here. Tiger Woods won this event in 2019, while Hideki Matsuyama won in 2021 and Keegan Bradley took top honors last season. The championship was moved to Sherwood Country Club near Los Angeles in 2020. It is a limited field of just 78 players and there is no 36-hole cut. Narashino Country Club will mix and match holes from each of its two courses to form one 18-hole layout for pro's this week. The combination makes for a shorter course at less than 7,100 yards and will play to a Par 70. The golf course features tree-lined, zoysiagrass fairways, doglegs and smaller, undulated, bentgrass greens.

Given that, there is not much history to pull from in our handicap of this tournament. The good news is, we know what it typically takes to capture the lead on Thursday and that translates at just about any golf course on TOUR. I will say, however, the First Round Leader is almost always a very random result – and the lack of golf course history adds to that. More good news though, as we only have 78 players in the field which is nearly half as many as we have to sort through normally.

In the macro-handicap this week, a couple of areas I am focused on are Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Greens in Regulation. The two most important areas in determining a First Round Leader are Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting - so if we can find a few players that fit that combination of skill sets, we may have found our guys.

Here’s a look at the players on my short list this week in Japan for FRL honors, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Adam Schenk (+4000)

Schenk has experienced the best year of his career in 2023. That has included playing an opening round that gained three or more strokes on the field seven times, and four times in which he’s gained five or more strokes on the field. He made his return to action last week in Las Vegas for the Shriners Children's Open but missed the cut. It is possible that some good comes with that as it gave him more time to get to Japan and be well-rested. He flourishes in our areas of focus, ranking sixth in this field for SG: Approach, 14th for SG: Putting (bentgrass), and second in Greens in Regulation Gained over the last 36 rounds. Schenk is 48th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average and 56th in Bogey Avoidance. He has played this championship at Narashino CC on all three occasions. He’s never finished worse than 28th and has opened with a round in the 60’s each time. Schenk was one shot off of the First Round Leader last year, opening with a 65.

Michael Kim (+6000)

Kim’s last two starts have produced very positive results. Back in August, he finished fifth at the Wyndham Championship and that included shooting 62 on Saturday. He finished 18th at the Shriners Children’s Open last week and closed with two straight rounds of 65 – so the current form is good. He is also very solid across the key stats we are monitoring this week. Over the last 36 rounds, Kim is 34th in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee, 27th for Greens in Regulation Gained, 24th for SG: Approach, and 23rd for SG: Putting (bentgrass). If he opens on Thursday, playing true to his numbers and current form, he should have a shot to come out on top.

Callum Tarren (+6600)

Putting is the only concern for the big-hitting Englishman as he ranks in the bottom half of this field over the last 36 rounds but as we know, putting can go hot or cold at any moment. If the putter happens to heat up on Thursday, it will go along nicely with his ranking 10th in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee, 12th for Greens in Regulation Gained, and 15th for SG: Approach. Tarren has played three times during the FedExCup Fall and is yet to miss a cut. He took seventh at the Fortinet Championship and was 23rd last week in Las Vegas, firing a 62 on Saturday at TPC Summerlin.

Schenk makes sense, being one of the shorter-priced players in this market, but as we noted earlier the First Round Leader often produces a somewhat random result. Kim and Tarren would very much fall into that category but with the numbers they carry coming in, they look to be live longshots in my eyes.

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