ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP preview: Motivation and ball-striking will rule the week in Japan

The intangibles.

In the golf betting world, these are the annoyances we encounter as we look to find winners and contenders each week on the PGA TOUR. We can always refer to the numbers. The stats. The history (more on these shortly). But we can’t always get a true grasp of a player’s mindset. Or know what’s going on away from the golf course that could prove pivotal.

At the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP this week we need to watch out for both the tangible stats and the dreaded intangibles.

The FedExCup Fall has already provided us with some interesting storylines as players compete for not only their PGA TOUR lives but also their levels of status in the new world of Signature Events coming in 2024.

Whether a player is chasing the top 125 to keep their card, chasing a place in “The Next 10” to get into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational, or just trying to notch another win on their resume… the motivations, and internal pressures, vary.

The first three events in the fall have seen just a handful of players who finished inside the top 50 of the FedExCup standings take part and, as such, already secured Signature Event status. But this week, as we head to Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club there are 17 of these competitors in the field.

All players turn up trying to win – but sometimes one player has a slightly higher drive than another. Do we believe those top-tier players, much like Tom Kim last week in Las Vegas, are playing without the stress of other competitors and therefore could play more freely? Or does the lack of consequence lead to players being not quite fully tuned in?

Let’s take the defending champion Keegan Bradley for example. He returns for the first time since being left off the U.S. Ryder Cup team. One could imagine he has a personal point to prove. But he also knows where he will be playing in 2024.

What about the home country heroes? Led by former winner Hideki Matsuyama, you can safely assume winning in their backyard means a lot to the Japanese players afforded an opportunity this week. But while Matsuyama is locked in on TOUR for a long time to come, what about former prodigy Ryo Ishikawa? Is the carrot of the big time a help or hindrance to him?

Enough of the maybes. Let’s get into the numbers we know.

The three winners at Narashino were Tiger Woods (2019), Matsuyama (2021) and Bradley (2022). Each player was a known ball-striker at the time and was firing with their approach game. Woods was coming off an injury-ravaged season but his history with his irons is well-known. Matsuyama and Bradley finished inside of the top 30 in the prior season to their win in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

During their wins in Japan, each ranked inside the top three for the week in Greens in Regulation (full ShotLink data was not in place), with Woods and Bradley ranked third and Matsuyama ranked first. Woods’ 76.39% rate was the lowest of the trio, with Matsuyama at a tidy 81.94%.

While Woods won the first installment of the event, Matsuyama and Bradley each had a prior top-10 on the course before winning. Matsuyama was runner-up to Woods while Bradley put up a T7 when Matsuyama won. Now I’m not suggesting this is a hard rule with such a small sample size, but it does warrant consideration.

Last week we connected on Tom Kim as the outright winner, Adam Hadwin as a top-10, J.T. Poston as a top-20 and Taylor Montgomery as a top-40. Time to see if we can back it up in Japan.

Outrights

I’m going to begin just as I did last week by recommending the defending champion. KeeganBradley (+2200 to win at BetMGM Sportsbook) was T7 and T13 in Japan before his win, so he has familiarity with the course. I also believe his motivation after missing out on the Ryder Cup will be high. If there is a concern it is the fact that Bradley has seen his SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach numbers fall over the last 12 months (he has produced a significant uptick in SG: Putting). But I’ll counter that with the fact that during his second win of the season – at the Travelers Championship – he led the field in SG: Approach and was seventh in SG: Tee to Green.

Another player I’m watching closely is Rickie Fowler (+1600). Fowler was in Rome but did not have the impact he would have liked, going 0-2-0 while reportedly falling slightly ill over there. On the outside, it appears not much gets under the skin of Fowler, but he would love nothing more than to rebound quickly. Add the fact he was the 54-hole leader a year ago in Japan, only to fall into a runner-up finish behind Bradley and you can see I’ve potentially got history repeating itself outside Tokyo this week. Fowler also ranks sixth on TOUR this season in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Place Markets

Top 10: If it wasn’t for the fact back and neck injuries seemed to plague Matsuyama over this year, I’d have him for a lock in this segment, but with so many unknowns on his health it’s up to you if you want to take a risk on the local superstar and former winner. Instead, I like what Eric Cole (+220 top-10 finish) continues to produce in his rookie season. Another great week in Las Vegas where he was T3 has me on his bandwagon as he chases an elusive win. Cole sits 19th in SG: Approach on the season and 39th in SG: Tee to Green. He could also be worth a look at +450 for a top-5.

If you are looking for a momentum player with plenty of motivation to succeed, then consider Australian Min Woo Lee (+150). Having just won the Macau Open on the Asian Tour, Lee is excited to take it up a notch on the PGA TOUR. The two-time DP World Tour winner showed his credentials with a T6 at THE PLAYERS and T5 at the U.S. Open this season and should be a regular contender in 2024. His countryman Cam Davis (+160) has also been trending towards big things of late.

Top 20: It was nice to see veteran Alex Noren (+140 top-20 finish) back near the pointy end of a leaderboard last week in Vegas, and his T3 finish comes at a great time considering he’s finished T18 and T17 in his previous ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP appearances. I like the Swede to make it a third top-20 finish in the event. While Noren has momentum, a missed cut last week from Tom Hoge (+188) has me slightly concerned, but I’m going to counter that with the fact he’s ninth on TOUR in SG: Approach and was T8 a year ago in Japan. One more you might not recognize… local hope Ryo Hisatsune (+225). A winner recently on the DP World Tour, Hisatsune finished T12 at ZOZO last year.

Top 40: The real JoelDahmen (-135 top-40 finish) may have been missing for most of this season, but with back-to-back top-15 finishes I’m seeing what I hope is a turnaround trend. With two prior top-16s at the ZOZO Championship, a top-40 play in a 78-man field seems conservative. If you want better odds, why not ride the former Japanese prince of golf in Ryo Ishikawa (+140) … he’s playing half-decent on the Japan Tour these days.

Longshot

A year ago Matt NeSmith went on a Fall run of T9-T2-T9 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Shriners Children’s Open and ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. His result in Japan was his last individual top 10 of the season (T4 at the team Zurich Classic of New Orleans). Now while his T25-T42 efforts the last two weeks don’t compare to 2022, they have shown signs of life – including a third-round 65 last week. At +10000 he could be worth a nibble – as he sits 25th on TOUR in GIR and a reasonable 53rd in SG: Approach.

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