Odds Outlook: Defending champ Tom Kim, Ryder Cup star Ludvig Åberg highlight headliners in Las Vegas

The neon lights of the Las Vegas desert welcome the FedExCup Fall to TPC Summerlin for event No. 3 of seven of the reimagined fall season.

While the “house” usually wins on The Strip, par at TPC Summerlin has not been as fortunate. Par hasn’t been relative over the last four editions. The winning score in 2022 and 2021 tied the course record of 24-under 260. The two seasons prior saw the winners post 23 under.

Last year’s edition saw 20-year-old Tom Kim play a bogey-free 72 holes to become the youngest winner in tournament history. Fast forward a year, and he is a betting favorite to go back-to-back, listed at +1100 by oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook as he rides a streak of seven straight top-25 finishes including a T6 finish in France three weeks ago.

Ludvig Åberg (+1200) got into a five-man playoff Sunday in Mississippi and is listed as the second choice this week in Nevada. The Ryder Cup participant wasn’t bothered by the jet lag or another new venue. Piling up four rounds in the 60s and posting 18 under, he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. His run of top-10 paydays across the globe on his own ball has reached four straight events, including a win at the Omega European Masters and last week’s playoff runner-up.

The last time Cam Davis (+2000) teed it up, he cashed solo third at the Fortinet Championship to kick off the FedExCup Fall. His first podium finish of 2023 was also his fourth top-10 payday in his last five starts. Never missing the weekend in four previous visits to TPC Summerlin, the Australian will look to improve on T28 as his best finish. All 16 of his rounds are par or better, but that’s not enough in a desert shootout!

Si Woo Kim (+2500) may have picked up the biggest win of his career during the Asian Games in the first week of October. Along with Sungjae Im and two amateurs, the Korean foursome won the team event and will not have to complete mandatory two-year military service for their country. The landing should be soft in Las Vegas as Kim has racked up a pair of T8 finishes in his last three visits, plus four top-25 paychecks from six attempts total.

Before Tom Kim went bogey-free over 72 holes to win in 2022, J.T. Poston (+3000) was the last player to accomplish that feat while winning the 2019 Wyndham Championship. From his last seven starts on TOUR six have resulted in T24 or better, including four top-10 paychecks. Making his eighth consecutive appearance at TPC Summerlin, he’s only cashed in three previous visits, including T20 in 2022 with 63 in Round 3.

Here's a look at some other notables to consider, with odds via BetMGM:

+3300: Adam Schenk, Eric Cole, Nicolai Højgaard, J.J. Spaun
+3500: Lucas Herbert
+4000: Adam Hadwin, Alex Smalley, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mark Hubbard, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, Vincent Norrman
+4500: Adam Svensson, Aaron Rai, Beau Hossler, Davis Thompson, Luke List
+5000: Patrick Rodgers, Justin Suh, Garrick Higgo, S.H. Kim
+5500: Doug Ghim
+6000: Taylor Montgomery
+6600: Alex Noren, Cameron Champ, K.H. Lee, Matt NeSmith, Sam Ryder, Callum Tarren, Chad Ramey, Joseph Bramlett, Nick Hardy, Nick Taylor, Peter Kuest, Sam Stevens, Scott Stallings, Taylor Pendrith
+8000: Akshay Bhatia, Austin Eckroat, C.T. Pan, Davis Riley, Erik van Rooyen, Hayden Buckley, Kevin Streelman, Matt Wallace, Troy Merritt, Webb Simpson
+9000: Chesson Hadley, Greyson Sigg, Kevin Yu, Martin Laird, Nate Lashley
+10000: David Lipsky, Harry Hall, Henrik Norlander, Joel Dahmen, Lanto Griffin, M.J. Daffue, Michael Kim, Tyler Duncan, Vince Whaley, Zecheng Dou

How it works:

• Field of 132 players.
• Field cut after 36 holes to top 65 and ties.
• Purse of $8.4 million with the winner taking home $1.512 million, plus 500 FedExCup points.
• The winner is also eligible for The Sentry, the Masters and PGA Championship in 2024.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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