Four betting lessons to learn from the 2023 Ryder Cup

GUIDONIA MONTECELIO, Italy – If you come back Monday morning, you’ll likely still find some champagne residue on the 18th green at Marco Simone Golf & Country Club.

It was a wild scene Sunday, as the Europeans reclaimed the Ryder Cup in emphatic fashion – although the Americans certainly made it interesting for a while. The final tally read 16.5-11.5, an exact score prediction that would have paid +2200 at the start of the week, and it means that the trophy will reside in European possession for the next two years.

There’s a temptation to make sweeping generalizations after an emphatic victory, even if it falls short of task force development. But for the betting audience, lessons can be learned that offer value for similar situations down the road.

The Presidents Cup at The Royal Montreal Golf Club next September will put several of these Americans back in the crucible of team match play, while the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black looms just two years away. So here are some lessons that I’m taking with me from Rome that could prove instructive the next time this pint-sized trophy is up for grabs:

Home field matters

"The Miracle at Medinah" from 2012 doesn’t come around every year. That stirring European comeback is the only instance in the last 17 years where the road team won the Ryder Cup. In the last four instances, it has become increasingly decisive: This year’s edition was actually the closest a road team had come, and two years ago we had a 19-9 whitewash at Whistling Straits.

“I’ve said this for probably the last six or seven years to anyone that will listen: I think one of the biggest accomplishments in golf right now is winning an away Ryder Cup,” said Rory McIlroy.

The Ulsterman also wasted no time in throwing down the gauntlet, by saying, “And that’s what we’re going to do at Bethpage.”

McIlroy was in tears two years ago at Wisconsin, and he and the Europeans will face a tall task to win what has become an increasingly partisan exhibition. One thing seems certain: They’ll look to do so as betting underdogs, as the Americans – who were clear favorites to win the Ryder Cup until event week, when money started crashing in on the Europeans – will surely be favored to win back the trophy in two years on Long Island. And don’t be afraid to look at alternate spread markets once they’re live, as this tournament now has an official trend of producing lopsided results.

Foursomes are critical

There’s no shying away from the fact that Foursomes proved pivotal to Team Europe’s success, as they won seven of eight possible points and continue to dominate the more difficult format at home. But when the script is flipped, the advantage lies with the Americans who cruised in Foursomes at both Hazeltine in 2016 and Whistling Straits in 2021.

A huge element of the recent dominance by home teams in the Ryder Cup is tied to Foursomes. Match records show that Four-ball and Singles play are basically a wash – this week, the U.S. actually led across those formats by a 10.5 to 9.5 margin. But Foursomes, more often than not, proves the difference maker.

“The fans and the people of the home team or whatever are a big part of this,” said U.S. Captain Zach Johnson. “It’s kind of like the fuel to the engine, if you will. Four years from now, hopefully we’ll implement a better process certainly than I did and we can show up in Ireland and get it back.”

This week also showed that it’s often wise to back the early momentum: The five-point margin the Europeans built after the opening day was all they needed, as the teams played to a 10-10 draw over the final two days of the competition. Expecting sizeable shifts in momentum can be tantalizing given the lofty prices that are often attached, but in this tournament the team that gets hot usually stays hot – particularly if they are able to flex a little Foursomes muscle at home.

Max Homa might be made for this

In a disappointing week for Johnson’s squad, one shining light was rookie Max Homa, who delivered in a big way. Homa went 3-1-1 this week in Rome, winning each of his last three matches including a hard-fought Singles victory over Matthew Fitzpatrick where he got up and down after taking an unplayable lie on No. 18. Listed at +800 at the start of the week to lead the Americans in scoring, he was the only American to earn more than two points at Marco Simone.

Combine that with his 4-0 Presidents Cup debut last year at Quail Hollow Club and Homa is now 7-1-1 when representing the United States as a professional. In projecting future American teams, it’s clear that Homa is going to be a factor – and rightfully should, assuming his game continues on its current upward ascent. But even if he should struggle in coming months, the match-play pedigree he has displayed over the last two years makes clear that he should be a part of future U.S. squads – and that bettors should look to pounce on match lines featuring Homa.

At the very least, expect him to be a shorter price to lead the Americans in scoring next time around.

Don’t overthink Singles

Twelve of 28 points were up for grabs Sunday, where the chalk reigned supreme. Looking at the pre-match prices, the only significant upset came in the anchor match: Robert MacIntyre (+145) over Wyndham Clark, a result that came after Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry had helped clinch the cup ahead of the Scotsman.

By and large, the players that were supposed to win did just that: McIlroy and Viktor Hovland both scored critical points, while Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele all notched wins as hefty favorites that helped keep alive dreams of an American comeback.

While Singles can sometimes prove to be high variance, this was an example where by and large the better player (on paper) won nearly every match. There’s often a temptation to lean toward the high rate of return on an underdog, especially when the prices drift close to +200, but in this case the favorites were priced that way for a reason.

This week in Rome we saw plenty of plus-money upsets in the team formats, but once it got to one-on-one, the players largely produced predictable outcomes.

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