Ryder Cup reaction: Europe leads with strength in opening Foursomes lineup

GUIDONIA MONTECELIO, Italy – After months of anticipation and four days of waiting on the outskirts of Rome, we finally have matches (and prices) to analyze ahead of the start of the 44th Ryder Cup.

Two key takeaways upon first glance: the absence of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas from the American roster and the show of strength from Team Europe. While expected, it still hits a little different seeing it all on paper. European Captain Luke Donald has stated that his switch to morning Foursomes is an attempt to gain an early upper hand, and this lineup is designed to do just that. Should the Americans capitalize as underdogs, though, it could magnify their advantage heading into the afternoon.

Here’s a look at the tandems that will square off in front of frenzied crowds to begin the Ryder Cup, with two of the four matches viewed essentially as coin flips by oddsmakers (odds via BetMGM Sportsbook):

1. Scheffler/Burns vs. Rahm/Hatton

1:35 a.m. ET: Scottie Scheffler/Sam Burns (U.S.) (-105) vs. Jon Rahm/Tyrrell Hatton (Europe) (-115)

Welcome to the Ryder Cup, Sam Burns! The last man on the squad (in my view) is now in line to potentially hit the very first tee shot. It’s a considerable gamble from U.S. Captain Zach Johnson, knowing that the Europeans would lead with strength as Rahm plays in the opening match on Friday for the third straight Ryder Cup. Oddsmakers favor the fiery European duo, and with good reason: Scheffler’s putting has been in the crucible all week, and he’ll now be hitting his approach shots from wherever Burns puts him off the tee.

2. Homa/Harman vs. Hovland/Åberg

1:50 a.m. ET: Max Homa/Brian Harman (U.S.) (+105) vs. Viktor Hovland/Ludvig Åberg (Europe) (-130)

I am bullish on Harman this week, and although I expected him to pair with Brooks Koepka (and Homa to team with Morikawa) I think this American duo has some potential. But they will have to bring it against the Scandinavian sensations, as Åberg makes his debut alongside one of Europe’s biggest pillars. Hovland can do no wrong over the last six weeks, including his par-4 (mulligan) ace in practice on Thursday. Of all the matches in the morning slate, I think this one will be the most difficult for the Americans to win – but should the two rookies pull off the upset it would provide a monstrous bit of momentum.

3. Fowler/Morikawa vs. Lowry/Straka

2:05 a.m. ET: Rickie Fowler/Collin Morikawa (U.S.) (-130) vs. Shane Lowry/Sepp Straka (Europe) (+105)

In the eyes of oddsmakers, this is the only morning match where the Americans have a considerable advantage – and it’s one where it will be critical to put a red point on the board if they want to get out of the morning with at least a split. Fowler is one of only four U.S. members who have played a previous Ryder Cup in Europe, and he’ll pair with Morikawa who has been strong in both the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup over the last two years. Straka has all the makings of a player who could surprise with a strong performance, although his high-variance game always felt better suited for Four-ball. He’ll join a veteran presence in Lowry as he makes his Ryder Cup debut in a match where the Euros can legitimately play the underdog card.

4. Schauffele/Cantlay vs. McIlroy/Fleetwood

2:20 a.m. ET: Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (U.S.) (+100) vs. Rory McIlroy/Tommy Fleetwood (Europe) (-125)

We end the opening session with a monster. Schauffele and Cantlay might have been the most predictable pairing for the Americans, having played together so successfully in both team matches and at the Zurich Classic – where this year they notably scored better in Foursomes than Four-ball. They’ll face the emotional leader of the Euros in McIlroy, who will now team with the man who was nearly untouchable five years ago in Paris. This is a close one in the eyes of the oddsmakers, and it could prove pivotal in deciding who will take a lead into the afternoon Four-ball session. If the Americans are able to take down McIlroy, it will provide heaps of momentum heading into the late session where Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are expected to make their Marco Simone debut. On the flip side, if the Euros score a point over the most reliable U.S. tandem, this place will be buzzing over lunch.

My overall analysis? I think the Europeans are in good position to take at least 2.5 of the four points available. It’s critical for Donald & Co. to make the most of their strongest format, having taken 22.5 of the last 32 Foursomes points in Europe. The middle matches feel like a wash, and the session will likely swing on the bookend matches – which feature Rahm and McIlroy. I doubt the Europeans would want it any other way. So the Americans have their work cut out for them, but even eking out a 2-2 tie heading into the more favorable Four-ball format would feel like a win for the visitors.

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