Major breakthrough: Top 10 players most likely to win their first major in 2024
9 Min Read
History says at least one player will win their first major championship in 2024, and oddsmakers are giving you the chance to pinpoint who that will be – some six months in advance of the opening shot of the 2024 Masters.
Since 1946, the year after the conclusion of World War II, at least one of golf’s four major winners at the Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open or The Open Championship featured a first-time major winner in all but four years.
The four outliers: 1972, when legends Jack Nicklaus (x2), Gary Player and Lee Trevino scooped the major hardware; 1980, when it was Nicklaus (x2), Tom Watson and Seve Ballesteros; 2000, when Tiger Woods won three and Vijay Singh the other; and most recently 2014, when Rory McIlroy claimed two majors and Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer each won their second.
In fact, in those 78 years of major championship golf, we have had exactly 156 first-time major winners – averaging out to exactly two a year.
This was shown in 2023 with Wyndham Clark winning the U.S. Open and Brian Harman claiming The Open – maintaining an average of two per season.
Oddsmakers over at BetMGM Sportsbook have already framed a market for winning any of the four majors in 2024, and it comes as little surprise that Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the way at +150 with Jon Rahm slightly behind at +165.
You can even get on Tiger Woods at +1100 if you fancy a comeback is on the cards. But that’s not where I’m throwing my focus. I’m looking to all the players in the market who have yet to win one. Those players are on the dreaded – ‘Best player who hasn’t won a major’ list.
As we look ahead to the Masters at Augusta National April 11-14, the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club May 16-19, the U.S. Open at Pinehurst June 13-16 and The Open Championship at Royal Troon July 18-21, who are the most likely to fill the spots as breakthrough major winners?
Let’s find out.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +1100)
The 23-year-old Swede has burst onto the professional golf scene this year after being a dominant amateur who forged his way to the PGA TOUR via the PGA TOUR University Ranking. Åberg notched up nine top-25 finishes on TOUR in 2023, including his season-capping win at The RSM Classic. He was also a winner on the DP World Tour and found himself on a winning European Ryder Cup team, announcing himself as a legitimate threat to the top level of golf in the coming years. While 2024 might be a little early for a major win, given he’s yet to even play in one, we’ve seen other amateur standouts win at a young age in recent years.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +800)
When I left Finau off this list last year there were a few raised eyebrows and barbs thrown my way. The reality was, that despite the fact he had finally broken his win drought on the PGA TOUR, I wasn’t convinced he could take it to the next level in majors. But even though his best performance in the big ones in 2023 was a T26 at the Masters, I am prepared to bring him back onto the list this year. Finau has three top-10s at the Masters on his resume and a further seven top-10s in majors across the other three. If he fails to contend in 2024, I can’t see him staying on the list.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +1400)
Sahith Theegala's best escape shots of his career
Even before the Californian won the Fortinet Championship to kick off the FedExCup Fall he was on the radar for this list. Now he’s solidified his place here as another young buck looking to take things to the next level. Having finished 28th in the FedExCup in his rookie season and 31st this season he’d already shown the capacity to be a consistent performer. Now he’s proven himself a winner. He was ninth on debut at Augusta National this year and made the cut at the PGA and U.S. Open.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +900)
A year ago, I had Tom Kim at ninth on this list after he surged to a comeback win at the 2022 Wyndham Championship and performed brilliantly at the Presidents Cup. He also added another PGA TOUR win soon after in Las Vegas, a title he then defended this year. Kim finished inside the top 16 of three of the four majors in 2023, including a runner-up result at The Open. While he’s not a bomber, he becomes a major contender based on his accuracy. He rarely misses fairways or greens, and if he has a good week with the putter he finds himself high on leaderboards. As major venues ratchet up the rough and difficulty, his skill set can come in handy.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +700)
After making the cut in all four majors including a T5 at the U.S. Open and a T10 at The Open in 2023, I’ve decided Fleetwood has earned his place back on the list. In his last 28 major starts, Fleetwood has six top-5 finishes so getting into contention is not his issue. It’s getting across the line that becomes hard. But with every near-miss is another bank of experience to add to his kit bag. He has a 63 in a U.S. Open on his resume and will be a serious contender at Royal Troon, having finished top 10 in three of the last four Opens.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +1100)
His performance in the Majors in 2023, (two missed cuts, a T16 and T20) wasn’t exactly exciting so he slides from fourth to fifth on the list this time around. I am still a firm believer in Im’s ceiling as a major champion despite less-than-stellar results at the U.S. Open, The Open and PGA. But three of his four Masters starts are inside the top 16, including a runner-up on debut. He finished 24th in the FedExCup in 2023 despite not winning, his fifth season in a row since he has made it to East Lake. That consistency is key as his experience level builds.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +800)
Timeline | Rickie Fowler’s emotional journey to first win since 2019
It was a year of the comeback for a couple of veterans, one of which was Fowler as he claimed the Rocket Mortgage Classic for his first win since 2019. It was just a reward for Fowler who finished inside the top 25 in 18 of his 25 TOUR starts in the season, including eight top-10s. But why does one good season send him all the way to fourth on this list? The major venues. At Augusta, Fowler has five finishes inside the top 12 five times. Fowler’s career-best PGA Championship result was a T3 in 2014, the last time we played at Valhalla and his best U.S. Open result is runner-up at Pinehurst. Fowler also had a great chance at Los Angeles Country Club this past season before settling for T5.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +600)
Had Cantlay had a rough year in the majors in 2023 he might have been a controversial omission from this list but top 15 results at the Masters, PGA and U.S. Open give him another stint near the top. In the past Cantlay’s bugbear has been the majors with just four top 10s from 27 starts but perhaps he unlocked something in 2023 he can use in 2024. An eight-time PGA TOUR winner who also claimed the 2021 FedExCup, the talent level is clearly high. It’s time for him to stand and deliver.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +550)
Knock… knock… KNOCK! Schauffele drops a spot on this list from a year ago but is still clearly a player to watch in major championship golf as he smashes his fist against the door. In 26 major starts, he now has 11 top 10s and his worst result in the majors in 2023 was a T18. Schauffele is also a runner-up at THE PLAYERS and won an Olympic Gold Medal. He has twice been top 3 at the Masters, has four finishes inside the top 18 at the PGA Championship and a runner-up at The Open Championship. But the U.S. Open remains his best chance where he opened with a 62 at LACC last season. He will head to Pinehurst with this run of results since his debut in the championship. T5-T6-T3-5-T7-T14-T10.
(Odds to win a Major in 2024: +275)
Viktor Hovland's dominant victory at the TOUR Championship
It should come as no surprise that the newly minted FedExCup champion in Hovland tops this list. The Norwegian sensation finished inside the top 20 of all four majors in 2023, including an agonizingly close runner-up finish at the PGA Championship. In 16 major starts, Hovland has 14 made cuts with eight top 20s. He has also finished inside the top nine of the last two PLAYERS Championships. Clearly, he has the ball-striking prowess to contend anywhere and his improvements in the short game should have his competitors taking huge notice. With his now mature approach to his game plans, it would be a shock if Hovland isn’t removed from this list via a victory in 2024.
FIVE LONG SHOTS
Given Clark and Harman came from well outside these types of lists in 2023 let’s throw up a few longshots who could surprise.
Cam Davis +1800: The young Aussie put up a T4 at the 2023 PGA Championship.
Sepp Straka +2000: Found his way onto the European Ryder Cup Team with a second TOUR win and a T7 at the PGA Championship and T2 at The Open.
Adrian Meronk +2500: The unlucky first man left off the European Ryder Cup Team the best golfer from Poland has three DP World Tour wins.
Nicolai Hojgaard +2500: The 22-year-old Dane already has three DP World Tour wins and now will be coming off making a Ryder Cup team.
Ryan Fox +2500: The winner of the DP World Tour’s flagship BMW Championship has four top 30 results in Majors.
OTHERS OF NOTE
Here are others in the market who might pique your interest.
Will Zalatoris +650
Max Homa +700
Tyrrell Hatton +700
Cameron Young +900
Sam Burns +1000
Corey Conners +1200
Si Woo Kim +1400
Min Woo Lee +1400
Russell Henley +1600
Denny McCarthy +2000
Emiliano Grillo +2000
J.T. Poston +2200
Harris English +2500
Kurt Kitayama +2500
Billy Horschel +2500
Adam Schenk +2800
Adam Hadwin +3000
Keith Mitchell +3300
*All odds are to win a major and sourced on Tuesday, September 19*
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