FRL: Fast start could help Rory McIlroy write more East Lake history

When looking at the FedExCup Starting Strokes market for an outright winner this week, one can likely make a case for at least a handful of players that could come from off the pace and win – a pace that has been predetermined and is led by FedExCup points leader Scottie Scheffler. A lot can happen over the course of four days. There isn't a cut at the TOUR Championship, and it was just last year that Rory McIlroy won the FedExCup after starting six shots back of the leader when play began on Thursday.

A First Round Leader market, however, only gives us one day to work with as opposed to all four. This lessens our chances substantially in finding someone further down the strokes-added board who could have a chance to come out on top after Round 1. Obviously it is much bigger ask for the leaderboard to display a great deal of flux over just 18 holes versus 72. The point is, Scheffler, starting with a two-shot advantage, is a huge favorite to still be holding onto that lead at the conclusion of play on Thursday. As one makes their way down the board just two or three more places, pretty soon you are headed into territory where it may be nearly impossible to surpass Scheffler – or Viktor Hovland, or Rory McIlroy – over the course of just 18 holes.

Since 2018, the First Round Leader score here at East Lake Golf Club in the FedExCup finale has been either 64 or 65. A round of 64 is 6-under par. If Scheffler shoots even par on Thursday, one of the five players beginning this tournament at 4 under could tie him with a 64. Those players are Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark and Matt Fitzpatrick. Certainly any of these players are capable of shooting 64, but is Scheffler – at the same time –going to fire an even par 70? It seems very unlikely. And will no other player in between get to 10 under on Day 1?

Again, I go back to what I was pointing out earlier: Homa, Cantlay, Harman, Clark and Fitzpatrick might all threaten to win outright this week, but winning on Thursday is so condensed – and so too are our possible First Round Leader candidates.

Here’s a look at the FRL market, inclusive of FedExCup Starting Strokes, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

-150: Scottie Scheffler (-10)

+350: Viktor Hovland (-8)

+500: Rory McIlroy (-7)

+1200: Jon Rahm (-6)

+5000: Lucas Glover (-5), Patrick Cantlay (-4)

+6600: Max Homa (-4)

+10000: Matt Fitzpatrick (-4), Brian Harman (-4), Wyndham Clark (-4)

I can't play Scheffler at -150. Some might say that's a bargain, and it is not necessarily against my betting practice to lay a price if need be – but I'm going to stay away in this case. The putting woes still have me holding back on Scheffler. I don't think Jon Rahm or Lucas Glover are bad bets to win it all, but I do feel they are probably too far back to be worthy of a play on Thursday. I'm not going to play on Viktor Hovland either. Coming off of the best round of his career to win the BMW Championship and vault himself into the No. 2 spot on the points list, Thursday could be the day for him to cool off for just a minute. Instead, I'll go with...

Rory McIlroy (+500)

We've got a proven commodity here who has won the FedExCup at East Lake three times. He shared First Round Leader honors last week at Olympia Fields, kicking off his week with a 65. In fact, he's 14th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average and 15th in Bogey Avoidance. I also believe that being only three shots off the lead coming in, is doable. Much more than that feels like a stretch, but I do believe McIlroy has a real shot even though +500 might be a tad short. Over the last 36 rounds, McIlroy is tops in this field for Strokes Gained on the par 4s – and remember, we have 12 of those here. He's also third in this field for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. Finally, in nine prior trips to the TOUR Championship, McIlroy has opened on every occasion with a round in the 60s. Three times he's opened with 66 or better and overall, McIlroy has fired a round of 66 or better, 11 times. No question, Scheffler deserves to be favored, but if the history of 65s or 64s here holds up as far as the First Round Leader score, McIlroy's got a shot.