Lucas Glover’s time to end as chalk will rise at BMW Championship

OLYMPIA FIELDS, Ill. – Lucas Glover’s back-to-back wins at high odds on the PGA TOUR have been exciting to watch and awesome for those lucky enough to get on the veteran but all good things must come to an end, and it’s time the cream rises to the top at the BMW Championship.

With all due respect to Glover – who was phenomenal through three rounds at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and then held on in the final round – it was clear the high-level stress of contending on TOUR was finally hitting his energy stores on Sunday.

And while I’m not suggesting his form will take a complete nosedive at the BMW Championship this week at Olympia Fields Country Club, I am saying he won’t be challenging for a third straight title on Sunday.

That, I believe, will fall to the chalk on the betting boards. And there is a clear delineation at the top of those this week. At the very top with BetMGM we see Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler at +700 before a slight drop to Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay at +1000. No other player in the 50-man field has lower odds than +1600.

A huge deluge on Monday at Olympia Fields has ensured a much softer test than we had at the venue in 2020 where Rahm would win in an epic playoff. Back then the course was a true hard and fast test, whereas this time around – at least early in the week – players will be able to take dead aim at pins.

In 2020 the top four players on the leaderboard ranked inside the top six in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and the top 10 in SG: Off-the-Tee. The top two players added SG: Putting and SG: Approach also inside the top 10. In other words, you need every aspect of your game here.

Given Scheffler leads and McIlroy is second on the season in SG: Total, it makes sense they are co-favorites. But while McIlroy comes into the week off a T3 in Memphis, Tennessee, and Scheffler’s ball-striking prowess should put him in good stead, I am not excited by the +700.

Scheffler’s putting remains a serious concern as he ranks 141st on TOUR, and McIlroy is just hard to trust at low numbers. You know he’s likely to contend, but winning is another story.

With that in mind, consider an alternative methodology should you be a fan of either player this week. Perhaps look to them as first-round leader options at +1200, and if they do start well you could collect. Yet if they find themselves a little off the pace through 18 holes, you may find their odds a little higher than the start point. Then you can decide to jump on if you expect them to fight their way forward.

So, given I’m expecting a chalk week, that leaves the two obvious choices for my outright selections…

OUTRIGHTS

PATRICK CANTLAY, +1000

Cantlay is a FedExCup Playoffs performer and is the two-time defending BMW Championship winner. He was first in SG: Tee-to-Green last week in Memphis, where one bad swing to start the playoff ultimately cost him the title. He ranks fifth on the season in SG: Tee-to-Green and fourth in SG: Total this season. Impressively, he won two years ago at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland off the strength of his putter and last year in Wilmington, Delaware, off the strength of his ball striking. Prior to play in Memphis, he drew a line in the sand with his team about turning the corner, working harder and bringing in a sharper focus. It worked.

JON RAHM, +1000

Rahm is the defending champ at this venue, and his only bogey on the weekend last time was via a penalty when he bizarrely picked up his ball without marking it. He ranks third in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total, and he enters the week slightly “rested” after not contending in the oppressive heat last week in Memphis. His ultimate goal is the TOUR Championship, but I see him starting his peak performance here.

PLACE

When it comes to players outside the chalk, I’ve got my eye on two players – one who played well in Memphis and another who did not but is due a form boost. Look to these two in the top-five and or top-10 markets.

SUNGJAE IM (+500 Top 5, +225 Top 10)

Off the back of a T6 last week in Memphis where he was sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green and importantly second in Scrambling, I can see the deadly accurate version of Sungjae Im returning. The Korean star ranks 16th on the season in SG: Total and should be able to keep the ball out of the juicy rough more often than not at Olympia Fields.

TONY FINAU (+600 Top 5, +275 Top 10)

Finau’s form has been slightly disappointing of late, but this venue should suit the big hitter. He ranks sixth this season in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in SG: Approach and 12th in SG: Total. He was also fifth at Olympia Fields three years ago with a scintillating 30 on the back nine on Sunday.

BUBBLE BOYS

Finally, it is important to once again be mindful of the Playoffs bubble ahead of the TOUR Championship. While 50 start this week, only 30 make it to East Lake, and there are a number of players who have to play their way in or protect their place. As such, they might be more likely to fight tooth and nail to the last moment Sunday.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (+3300 to win, +500 for Top 5)

Matsuyama needed a huge finish last week, going five under in his last six holes just to make it to Chicago. He will need another huge week, likely inside the top four or better, to have a chance at a record 10th straight TOUR Championship. But he was T3 here three years ago and ranks 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Around the Green.

COREY CONNERS (+105 for a Top 20)

The Canadian sits 25th in the FedExCup which “should” be relatively safe, but he can’t afford to find himself at the back end of the leaderboard. He finished T6 in Memphis despite losing strokes on Approach – usually his bread and butter. If he can return to his ball striking best, he should find himself in the top half of the field and with his need to secure East Lake is unlikely to take his foot off the gas.

BYEONG HUN AN (+333 for a Top 10)

At 38th in the FedExCup, An needs a top 10 at minimum to have a chance to advance. I can see him going after it. He was hitting the ball beautifully in practice on Tuesday in Chicago and was talking confidently when it came to course fit. In Memphis, he struggled to a T37 however ranked third in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee. With extra effort on his iron play in the lead-up to Olympia Fields and a boom-or-bust mentality, he becomes a potentially dangerous prospect.

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