Bombs away for First Round Leader at the BMW Championship

Circumstances are changing for us First Round Leader bettors in week two of the FedExCup Playoffs. The field is now only 50 players, but the prices have been chopped accordingly as well. The favorites this week are around +1000 or +1200, nearly half of what they might be in a regular sized field. The mid-range guys are +2000 instead of +3300; but that's okay. Having less options to choose from increases our chances of being correct - and as they say, no matter the price, cashing tickets is what it's all about.

My handicap of the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club has been geared toward the bombers from the start, even a few weeks ago, looking ahead to this event. If you look at the leaderboard from when we were here in 2020 it was littered with big hitters at the top.

As always, the weather plays a factor in what we are betting and what how our handicap adjusts. It rained in the Olympia Fields area on Monday and Tuesday and is expected to do so again on Thursday morning. The course may dry out some and become firmer and faster over the weekend. However, that is not of our concern in trying to isolate a Thursday "champion."

A soft golf course can translate into a number of things. More fairways will be hit as less balls will run out into the rough. More aggressive shots can be made into the greens, knowing the greens are going to hold. At the same time, shorter hitters could be at a disadvantage without the run-out of firm and fast fairways, as and the bombers gain an edge, being able to carry the ball further.

Olympia Fields has hosted both a Senior U.S. Open and a U.S. Open and sure enough, last time we were here, we saw a U.S. Open winner capture the trophy in Jon Rahm. Losing to Rahm in a playoff that year was another U.S. Open winner in Dustin Johnson. Much like the U.S. Open, only five players finished under par in 2020 and the winning score was 4 under. I will use all my typical First Round Leader pointers to try to nail down this week’s honoree, but I am also going to consider U.S. Open success in my selections.

Finally, I believe Olympia Fields compares to other big-boy golf courses that have hosted major championships in some cases. I believe there is crossover or correlated success with Torrey Pines, Winged Foot, Liberty National, Quail Hollow, Caves Valley, Memorial Park, and TPC Boston.

We’ve set the table. Now let’s see if we can find a one in 50 shot that is going to feed us on Thursday.

Xander Schauffele (+2000)

Schauffele has thrived throughout his career in no-cut, limited-field events like we will see this week. He also has more success (as far as top-10 finishes) at U.S. Opens, more so than anyone else in this field. In fact, he shared First Round Leader honors earlier this summer at the U.S. Open in Los Angeles. A key ingredient in that is avoiding bogeys. Over the last 36 rounds, Schauffele ranks 11th in this field for Bogey Avoidance. And yes, he can get it out there, ranking 24th in the field for Driving Distance. Since the Masters, Schauffele has opened with rounds on Thursday that gained three or more strokes on the field five times, twice in which he gained five or more strokes on the field. That, of course, contributes heavily to the fact that he ranks sixth on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average.

Brian Harman (+3300)

About the only box that Harman doesn’t check in our handicap is Driving Distance. No, he’s not a bomber, ranking 44th in this field for such over the last 36 rounds. Yet, we saw him dissect Royal Liverpool off the tee with precision, accuracy, avoiding the rough and setting up favorable approach shots. We also saw his tremendous short game at work, something that certainly ought to come in handy in our First Round Leader effort here. Going back to the spring, Harman has opened on Thursday three times with rounds that gained five or more strokes on the field. He ranks second on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance and is 22nd in First Round Scoring Average. Harman has made the cut in six straight U.S. Opens. He opened this year with a 65, good enough for fifth place after round one. He opened with a 68 last year at The Country Club, putting him in seventh place after round one, and back in 2017 when he finished runner-up at Erin Hills, Harman was in fourth place at the end of Thursday’s round, after shooting a 67.

Byeong Hun An (+4000)

Back to the bomber mold here with An, who ranks second in this field in Driving Distance over the past 36 rounds. During that span, he is also ninth in Bogey Avoidance. An finished 12th at this golf course back in 2020 and he’s never missed a cut at The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. On four occasions recently, he has opened with a round on Thursday that gained three or more strokes on the field and twice gaining five or more shots. He’s also in very good form with a third-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open and a runner-up finish two weeks ago at the Wyndham Championship. An ranks ninth on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average.

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