Odds Outlook: Rory roars into Chicago as BMW Championship betting favorite

The top 50 players blow into the Windy City at Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) for the BMW Championship this week.

The second FedExCup Playoffs event will determine the final 30 players eligible to compete to win the TOUR Championship next week at East Lake in Atlanta.

Olympia Fields returns to the postseason rotation for the first time since Jon Rahm won in a playoff in 2020. Playing as a par-70 and reaching 7,366 yards, it was the fourth-hardest course used on TOUR (including majors) that season. Only five players broke par for the week.

Rory McIlroy (+750) rolls in as the favorite after coming close again last week in Memphis, Tennessee, for the FedExCup Playoffs opener. Finishing in a share for third after a closing birdie, his streak of top-10 paydays has reached seven consecutive events. The Genesis Scottish Open champion has produced on links, Bermuda, Bent, inland and in major championships across the last three months. With three FedExCup championships to his name, he knows what is required this time of year to outlast the best players in golf. Holding a share of the 36-hole lead here in 2020, McIlroy should know what it takes to get it done in the Chicago suburbs.

The previous BMW Championship held at Olympia Fields was the rookie season for Scottie Scheffler (+800). Picking up a paycheck for T20 kept him in the top 30 in 2020. Sitting at number two in the FedExCup standings since the Masters, he will have a week to tune up. Concerningly, his last two starts on TOUR, FedEx St. Jude Championship (T31) and The Open Championship (T23), are his two “worst” finishes this calendar year.

The man who leads the FedExCup standings and is the defending champion, Jon Rahm (+1000), is just a joint-third choice this week. Fresh off a runner-up payday at Royal Liverpool, the Spaniard dug an early hole last week with a 73 in round 1. Bouncing back with a trio of rounds in the 60s, he signed for T37 and has shaken off the rust. Returning to the scene where he sank a 66-foot putt in sudden death to win in 2020, Rahm played his final 40 holes here with just one bogey. With some of the most precise fairways and greens to hit on TOUR at Olympia Fields, he should be relishing the challenge of defending.

Closing with a 64 last Sunday for the round of the day, Patrick Cantlay (+1000) caught Lucas Glover and forced a playoff in Memphis. Falling short after his tee shot on the first extra hole found the water, the Californian shifts his attention to the BMW Championship, where he is the two-time reigning champion. Winning outside Baltimore and in Delaware on Bentgrass the last two seasons, Cantlay shared the 36-hole lead here with McIlroy in 2020. Scuttled by a third-round 75, he bounced back with a 69 on Sunday to cash T12, the last time he did not win this event. Winning The TOUR Championship in 2021, Cantlay has now lifted the trophy in three of the last six FedExCup Playoffs events.

Another rookie from the 2020 season, Viktor Hovland (+1600), has now bedded in comfortably on the world’s biggest stage. Flashing 64-65 in the middle two rounds last week in Memphis, the Norwegian couldn’t complete his return to the top 10 for the first time since winning the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday in late May. Sitting at 12 under, he played the back nine in two over par to slide to T13. Another demanding challenge this week, like Memorial, should be right up his alley.

Reminding Xander Schauffele (+1800) this course determined the U.S. Open champion in 2003 (congratulations again, Jim Furyk!) should shift his game into top gear. With a top-10 finish in June at LACC, Schauffele reinforced his complete game in the annual toughest test of golf. Olympia Fields will provide a complete examination throughout the bag, and this should suit the man with six top-10 paydays from seven career starts in U.S. Open championships. Signing for T25 in 2020, he posted rounds of 70 and 69 as highlights. In the 2002 edition, there were 15 players out of 69 entered, who did not post a round of par or better.

Collin Morikawa (+2200) pledged $1,000 per birdie to Maui relief efforts after the tragic, devasting fire wiped out parts of Lahaina last week. Pounding the fairways (sixth) and greens (T4) last week on a tough, ball-striking layout, he produced 15 birdies and one eagle in cashing T13. In 2020, 34 of the 69 entered made FEWER THAN 10 birdies for the week. After beginning 76-73 (9 over), the 2020 PGA Champion rallied to close 68-68 for T20. Currently number two in Driving Accuracy, Olympia Fields provided the hardest fairways to hit in the 2020 season at barely 48 percent.

Jordan Spieth (+2200) caught everyone’s attention, opening with a 63 last week before settling for a T6. His magic wand on the greens returned as he needed only 99 putts over four rounds at TPC Southwind. The result inside the top 10 was his first since the Memorial in late May (T5). With difficult driving and approach conditions this week, his exemplary short game is a wonderful insurance policy. Making his first start at Olympia Fields for a TOUR event, sitting at No. 27 in the FedExCup standings will not allow him just to show up and tune up.

Max Homa (+2200) has quietly rattled off four straight T21 or better. After T21 in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, each payday has improved. Playing golf in the U.K. over the summer, he picked up T12 at The Renaissance Club in Scotland before FINALLY breaking into the top 10 in a major championship with T10 at Royal Liverpool. His break after the final major of the season didn’t slow him down. Collecting T6 in Memphis last week, he produced T6, his first top 10 in seven starts at TPC Southwind. Making his second start at Olympia Fields, Homa will look to improve on T59 from 2020.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) didn’t let the heartbreak of The Open define his season. Fading to T10 after pushing for most of the week, the Englishman produced back-to-back top-10 paydays in the final two majors of the season. Adding a playoff loss in Canada, plus T3 last week in Memphis, his form hasn’t been the question. Getting it over the finishing line is the next step.

Grinding out rounds where par is a good score fits the mold of Tyrrell Hatton (+2500). His only TOUR victory was in 2020 at Bay Hill, where his four-under winning total was one of four rounds for the week under par. Ranking in the top 12 in every Strokes-Gained category, minus SG: Around the Green, the Englishman ran T16 here in 2020. Sitting No. 26 in the current standings, his orders are clear this week.

Others to consider:

(Current FedExCup standings)

+2800: Russell Henley (15)

+3000: Hideki Matsuyama (47)

+3300: Rickie Fowler (12), Lucas Glover (4), Tom Kim (18), Sungjae Im (28)

+4000: Cameron Young (46), Corey Conners (25), Tony Finau (13)

+4500: Brian Harman (9), Jason Day (21), Matt Fitzpatrick (40), Sam Burns (30), Wyndham Clark (8)

+5000: Justin Rose (32)

+5500: Cam Davis (45), JT Poston (43), Si Woo Kim (17)

+6000: Taylor Moore (14)

+6600: Ben An (38), Emiliano Grillo (23), Keegan Bradley (11), Sepp Straka (24)

+8000: Adam Hadwin (37), Brendon Todd (44), Sahith Theegala (31)

+9000: Harris English (49), Lee Hodges (36)

+10000: Adam Schenk (20), Adam Svensson (39), Andrew Putnam (41), Chris Kirk (29), Denny McCarthy (34), Eric Cole (42)

+12500: Nick Taylor (16)

+15000: Kurt Kitayama (33), Patrick Rodgers (50), Seamus Power (35)

+17500: Tom Hoge (48)

How it works:

• Field of 50 players. If a player withdraws, there will be no replacement.

• No cut, 72-hole event.

• Purse of $20 million with $3.6 million to the winner, along with 2,000 FedExCup points.

At the conclusion of the BMW Championship, the top 30 in the FedExCup standings will advance to the TOUR Championship next week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the chance to be crowned FedExCup champion.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

-Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-

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