FRL: Rickie Fowler looking to build on hot summer stretch in steamy Memphis

The Wyndham Championship was thrilling last week, with every birdie and bogey shuffling the FedExCup standings and determining who makes the Playoffs. For Justin Thomas, it came all the way down to his final shot on Sunday - a chip from off the green that hit the flagstick and lipped out. He was inches away from making birdie and vaulting into this week's top 70 but it was not to be. Fans could have not asked for a more dramatic conclusion to the race for the postseason.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind has been featured on the PGA TOUR schedule since 1989. For the second straight season, the FedExCup Playoffs will begin in Memphis, Tennessee. This year the format has a slight change, as the top 70 in FedExCup standings make the Playoffs, instead of the top 125.

For the last four years, the first-round leader at TPC Southwind, has opened with an 8-under par round of 62. Three of those four rounds came from the late wave of start times. Chances of thunderstorms are in the forecast for the Memphis area on each day of the tournament, except for Friday, with the highest possible chance being forecasted for Wednesday, before Thursday's start. Even with this field being trimmed by 55 players, if the storms soften up this golf course, we could very easily see a 62 posted again on Thursday.

Many players have commented over the years about what an excellent and fair test of golf TPC Southwind presents. The Zoysia grass fairways are narrow and bordered by some nasty Bermuda grass rough. It is a par 70, so 12 of the holes will be par 4s, most of which measure between 450-500 yards. The majority of approach shots will come from a window of 125-200 yards out. Finding fairways, being accurate on approach, scoring on the par 4s, and scrambling have proven to be key ingredients to success at this course.

We are always looking for that combination of Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting when it comes to finding a First Round Leader. It’s these two skill sets that most commonly separate a player from the pack on Thursdays. We'll focus on these two areas once again, along with a nod to some of the specific areas we noted earlier.

As far as similar layouts or correlated golf courses I used this week, I settled on Port Royal Golf Club (Butterfield Bermuda Championship), The Concession (2021 World Golf Championships-Workday Championship at The Concession), Sea Island (The RSM Classic), Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic).

In each of the Designated events and major championships so far this season, the winners have been overwhelmingly elite. Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rahm, Kurt Kitayama, Scheffler, Sam Burns, Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Clark, Keegan Bradley, and Brian Harman respectively make up the list of winners for the 14 tournaments. The average Official World Golf Ranking among this group is currently 9.5. I believe it is likely we see another top player in the field this week get their postseason started with a win. With that, I think an elite player will also be our speed horse on Thursday (odds via BetMGM Sportsbook).

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)

Fleetwood has been on a roll as of late, finishing in the top 10 in four of his last five starts. That included a loss in a playoff to Nick Taylor at the RBC Canadian Open. He finished fourth here at TPC Southwind in 2019 and 2020. He also shot three rounds of 67 at The RSM Classic (a correlating course). Over the last 36 rounds, Fleetwood ranks top 25 in this field for SG: Putting on firm and fast Bermuda greens and eighth for SG: Tee-to-Green. In fact, he doesn't sit lower than 28th in this field for any stat I looked at this week over the past 36 rounds. Since the Masters, Fleetwood has had two opening rounds in which he gained five or more strokes on the field and has played four rounds at this course in which he's gained three or more strokes on the field.

Rickie Fowler (+3300)

Like Fleetwood, Fowler is another player that has been hot this summer. After missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Fowler finished sixth, ninth, fifth, 13th, and first in his next five starts - with that win coming at Detroit Golf Club (correlating course). Over the last 36 rounds, he is 24th in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda grass and 10th in SG: Approach. Fowler finished 15th here in 2020, opening with a round of 64. Since 2018, he has had three rounds at TPC Southwind that have gained three or more strokes on the field. Fowler also ranks 11th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average.

Wyndham Clark (+4000)

Winning against two Designated fields this season, at the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open, Clark has proven that he clearly belongs in elite company on TOUR. At the correlated courses, he's finished runner-up at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, has top-10s at both The RSM Classic and the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has finished as high as 18th at Pebble Beach. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 24th in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda grass, 20th for SG: Approach, seventh in Scrambling and eighth for Strokes Gained on the par 4 measuring between 450-500 yards. Since the Masters, Clark has opened a tournament with a round that gained three or more strokes on the field five times. He is tied with Fowler for 11th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average.