Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler, not points leader Jon Rahm, favored for Playoffs opener in Memphis

Walking 72 holes in Memphis, Tennessee, kicks off the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The three-event series begins three weeks of play to determine the FedExCup champion starting this week at TPC Southwind.

Last week’s Wyndham Championship established the final field of competitors for the FedExCup Playoffs. The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings will have four rounds (no cut) to qualify among the top 50 for the BMW Championship next week in Chicago at Olympia Fields Country Club.

But while Jon Rahm just took home a $4 million bonus for topping the regular season FedExCup standings, he’s not the betting favorite for the Playoffs opener in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook.

That honor belongs to Scottie Scheffler (+700; second in FedExCup), who enters the week at the top of the board and No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Breaking a streak of seven consecutive top-five finishes with T23 at Royal Liverpool, the Texan hasn’t picked up a club in tournament action since. Rested and ready, he arrives at TPC Southwind with five previous starts under his belt. Missing the cut last year to open the FedExCup Playoffs (71-68), he will try and regain the course form that saw him sign for back-to-back top-15 paydays in the final two editions of the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational on this track.

After his debut in 2010 at TPC Southwind, Rory McIlroy (+800; third in points) returns for the seventh time and fifth consecutive season. The three-time FedExCup champion, similarly to Scheffler, wasn’t around for the weekend last year after posting 70-69 to miss the cut. Posting 62 in Round 3 in 2019 led to his best payday, T4, and second top-10 result. After winning the Genesis Scottish Open and cashing T6 at The Open Championship, McIlroy has run his streak of top-10 paydays to seven events on TOUR.

Making his fourth visit to TPC Southwind, Spaniard Jon Rahm (+850; first in points) will look to improve on his T5 finish from last season as third on the odds board. One of eight players to share fifth last year, Rahm picked up his second top-10 payday at the Par-70, 7,243-yard layout. On his first visit in August 2019, he posted 62 to open before posting 10-under and cashing solo seventh. Rahm will be playing only his fourth event this summer and second since cashing T2 at Royal Liverpool.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600) will try to break into the top 10 at TPC Southwind for the first time in the last five seasons. Picking up T12 on debut, the player currently No. 13 in the FedExCup standings has not cashed inside the top 22 in his previous three visits. After missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and signing for T33 at Royal Liverpool, the back-to-back BMW Championship winner from the last two seasons will look to tune-up his game before attempting the three-peat next week in Chicago.

Xander Schauffele (+1800) has made a living raking cash in limited field, no-cut events during his young career. From the Olympic Games in Brazil to The Sentry and winning at East Lake twice, the Californian gears up for the challenge. The summertime heat from the Mississippi River has not provided much inspiration, and only one top-10 paycheck, T6 in 2020. Of his last 11 starts worldwide, only T42 at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he was the reigning champion, has cashed outside T24. Sits No. 16 in the FedExCup standings.

April and May included a pair of top-10 paydays in major championship events and led to a victory at the Memorial Tournament for Viktor Hovland (+2000). The Norwegian has cashed T29 or better in his last four worldwide starts, but T13 at The Open last month is the best. Returning to TPC Southwind for the fourth consecutive season, he will look to continue his run of improving on each visit. Signing for T20 last year with four rounds at par or better now gives him 12 rounds of previous experience to work with this time. Sits at No. 7 in the FedExCup standings.

A winner here last year in a playoff, Will Zalatoris (back) will not defend his title as he has missed most of the season while recovering from surgery. Here's a look at the outright odds on the rest of the field, via BetMGM, with current FedExCup standing noted in parentheses:

+2500: Collin Morikawa (22), Tyrrell Hatton (17)

+2800: Jordan Spieth (31), Rickie Fowler (9), Tommy Fleetwood (26)

+3000: Tony Finau (10)

+3300: Matt Fitzpatrick (36), Max Homa (4), Tom Kim (14), Wyndham Clark (5)

+4000: Cameron Young (48), Hideki Matsuyama (57), Jason Day (11), Russell Henley (20), Sam Burns (19), Sungjae Im (32)

+4500: Brian Harman (6), JT Poston (45)

+5000: Sepp Straka (15)

+6000: Byeong Hun An (37)

+6600: Cam Davis (62), Corey Conners (30), Denny McCarthy (27), Justin Rose (33), Keegan Bradley (8), Lucas Glover (49), Si Woo Kim (18)

+8000: Emiliano Grillo (21), Harris English (42), Lee Hodges (35), Stephan Jaeger (61)

+9000: Brendon Todd (39), Keith Mitchell (58), Taylor Moore (25), Thomas Detry (52)

+10000: Aaron Rai (65), Andrew Putnam (41),

+12500: Adam Svensson (38), Chris Kirk (28), Eric Cole (40), J.J. Spaun (69), Sahith Theegala (34), Seamus Power (29)

+15000: Adam Hadwin (44), Adam Schenk (24), Alex Smalley (51), Beau Hossler (66), Mark Hubbard (59), Matt Kuchar (60), Nick Hardy (50), Patrick Rodgers (43), Tom Hoge (46)

+17500: Nick Taylor (12), Vincent Norrman (68)

+20000: Davis Riley (54), Kurt Kitayama (23), Sam Ryder (63), Sam Stevens (64)

+25000: Ben Griffin (70), Hayden Buckley (56), Mackenzie Hughes (47)

+30000: Brandon Wu (55), Matt NeSmith (67), Taylor Montgomery (53),

How it works:

· Field of 70 players. If a player withdraws, there will be no replacement.

· No cut, 72-hole event.

· Purse of $20 million with $3.6 million to the winner, along with 2,000 FedExCup points.

At the conclusion of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the top 50 in the FedExCup standings will advance to the BMW Championship next week at Olympia Field Country Club.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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