Five betting options for FedExCup bubble bursters

During any given season the music playing through the headphones of PGA TOUR stars on the range runs the gambit of genres from rock to country, to pop (yes there are some Swifties hiding out there!) and of course rap. But one 20-year-old song is getting more playtime than usual on the Sedgefield Country Club practice facility this week.

“If you had one shot, or one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment,
would you capture it, or just let it slip?” – Lose Yourself, Eminem.

The Wyndham Championship is the last chance for players to move themselves into the FedExCup Playoffs for the season, keeping alive their chances to win the coveted Cup and the $18 million that goes with it.

And so, like Eminem first delivered so eloquently two decades ago, there are plenty of sweaty palms, weak knees and heavy arms out there this week but it is the players who lose themselves in the moment and own their destiny who will ultimately prevail.

This presents a unique scenario to consider for the golf betting public. Certain players are born for these moments while others can find them tough. Finding the highly motivated performer immune to pressure could bring joy to the bettors.

Last week we saw Lee Hodges and Cam Davis play their way inside the top 70 on the points list with good play at the 3M Open. Hodges secured his postseason with a stunning victory while Davis needed a blitz on Sunday to temporarily bring hope as he sits 69th on the list.

Since 2009 an average of 2.4 players have burst the Playoffs bubble at the Wyndham Championship with high points of five players in 2009 and 2015 but the low of 2013 when no one was able to muscle in.

Move into the FedExCup Playoffs
Wyndham Championship Since 2009

*Avg: 2.4

As he did last week at the 3M Open where he missed the cut, Justin Thomas headlines some of the names outside the top 70 that might surprise you. The 2017 FedExCup champion has dropped to 79th in the standings and faces a do-or-die scenario of being at least inside the top 18 this week to have a chance.

Austin Eckroat currently sits 70th on the points list with 594 points knowing he’s likely far from safe. With 500 points available to the winner, 300 for the runner up and a cascading points distribution down the leaderboard every point, or even fraction of a point counts.

Let’s take a look at five players who could burst into the top 70 with a good week at Sedgefield Country Club.

JUSTIN THOMAS (+3300 to win Wyndham Championship)
FedExCup Rank: 79
Points: 546
Points behind 70th: 48
Scenario: Minimum Finish to advance – Solo 18th

Just saying this out loud sounds wrong… but Thomas has missed five of his last seven cuts. Throw in an 81 at the U.S. Open and 82 at the Open Championship and the 2017 FedExCup champion remains in a slump.

There was hope he might start his resurgence last week at the 3M Open but some costly errors led to big numbers and another weekend was missed.

Not all is lost as Thomas chases a minimum top 18 finish to have a chance. Stats guru Justin Ray from Twenty First Group gives JT an 11.5% chance to make the postseason based on 20,000 simulations.

But it appears a big ask for one specific reason… putting. Thomas has dipped to 159th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and the last six winners at Sedgefield all ranked inside the top 25 of the metric the week they prevailed.

Bottom Line: Thomas is +138 for a Top 20 finish with BetMGM, but as seen above, ranked only an 11.5% chance of likely doing so. Cheer him on with your heart if you desire but leave the wallet out of it.

SHANE LOWRY (+3300 to win Wyndham Championship)
FedExCup Rank: 76
Points: 556
Points behind 70th: 38
Scenario: Minimum Finish to advance – 2-way tie for 23rd

It’s interesting to put Lowry’s season up against Thomas, a fellow former major winner. While Thomas is in a slump to be outside the bubble, Lowry has just been unable to get from fourth to fifth gear.

Just one top 10 came via a T5 at The Honda Classic in February but between missing cuts at the Wells Fargo Championship and The Open Championship Lowry had a respectable five top 20s.

Coincidentally, it is around a top 20 finish Lowry will likely need this week if he is to advance. As a likely candidate for the European Ryder Cup team, he will want to keep his season alive to continue to remain in good touch.

Lowry has two previous top 25s at the Wyndham Championship and ranks 25th this season in SG: Approach.

Bottom Line: This +138 Top 20 option looks more enticing than the same for Thomas.

JUSTIN SUH (+8000 to win Wyndham Championship)
FedExCup Rank: 77
Points: 548
Points behind 70th: 46
Scenario: Minimum Finish to advance – 2-way tie for 19th

Another player targeting a minimum top-20 finish, inside the top 19 to more exact, Suh has the benefit of being one of the TOUR’s better putters this season.

At 12th in SG: Putting Suh has the ability to rack up the birdies, a trait needed at Sedgefield where 20 under through four rounds is a solid target for a winner.

Suh opened the 3M Open last week with a tidy 65 only to regress into a tie for 43rd.

Bottom Line: I really like Suh as a player in general but feel he slots in on the points list right where his game this season belongs. Not quite good enough. He’s +320 for the Top 20 required but hasn’t had a top 20 in his last six starts.

ADAM SCOTT (+3300 to win Wyndham Championship)
FedExCup Rank: 81
Points: 517
Points behind 70th: 77
Scenario: Minimum Finish to advance – 2-way tie for 9th

The Australian fights to keep his 100% FedExCup Playoff run alive and according to Twenty First Group is just a 5.2% chance to do so.

But the former Masters champ will be quietly confident given his T2 effort two years ago where he – quite frankly – should have closed out victory early in the six-man playoff only to miss a short putt.

At 77 points behind the current No. 70 Scott needs, at bare minimum, a top-9 finish this week. He ranks a decent 31st in SG: Putting this season and despite some poor weeks with his irons, still has one of the silkiest swings on TOUR.

Bottom Line: One must always factor my Aussie bias but I legitimately think Scott can not only collect on the +320 for a Top 10 but could indeed push for the title at +3300.

BEN TAYLOR (+50000 to win Wyndham Championship)
FedExCup Rank: 71
Points: 592
Points behind 70th: 2
Scenario: Minimum Finish to advance – 2-way tie for 75th

At just two points behind 70th on the standings Ben Taylor is the closest player outside the bubble looking to break through.

Working in his favor is his putting. He’s 28th on TOUR and in three of his four top 10s this season he was inside the top three in SG: Putting.

But working against him is his freefall down the standings since sitting 27th post a T5 at The Honda Classic. Taylor has missed 10 of 15 cuts since, including six of the last nine. Those three made cuts yielded a T69, a 73rd and 71st finish for just nine total FedExCup points.

Bottom Line: What makes Ben Taylor tick? We are about to find out. Recent form scares me here making a miss cut prop one to look out for.