DFS Dish: Start with Si Woo Kim and look for balance with Wyndham lineups
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Tournament Preview (David Barnett)
What a PGA TOUR season it’s been! The field is set for the FedExCup Regular Season finale before the Playoffs, as Sedgefield Country Club plays host to the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, NC. As we referenced last week, the FedExCup standings are going to get a ton of air time as guys are trying to get into the top 70 to qualify for the Playoffs. Don’t forget about the game within the game as those finishing in the top 50 after next week (and qualifying for the BMW Championship) are guaranteed starts in designated events next year.
Sedgefield is one of those courses we all know quite well, as it’s hosted a PGA TOUR event every year since 2008. This Donald Ross design features Bermuda grass throughout with tight landing areas off the tee, penal rough, water in play, and deceptively tough green complexes. The majority of winners here over the last 10 years are known for precision ball-striking and hot putters. This is not the course if you like blasting driver everywhere. Players will likely club down off the tee to position themselves to attack these greens from the fairway.
The winning score at the Wyndham Championship has reached 20 under every year since 2016, with Kevin Kisner’s playoff win in 2021 being the exception at 15 under. We’re also seeing early signs of some summer showers, which will soften the greens up and make this place all the more gettable. Given the likelihood of the scores getting low, you need guys in your DFS lineups that can hit it close with their short and mid-irons, then convert the opportunities with the putter.
The strength of this field, the water in play and the penal rough offer some variance despite the low scores. In the last two years, among the top 10 DraftKings points scorers in DFS, only six of them were priced above $9,000. That’s just six of the top 20 total over the last two years. Additionally, just eight of the top 20 highest-owned players in DraftKings DFS contests over the last two Wyndham Championships paid off their price. In other words, there’s no reason to devour too much chalk. Tom Kim was the good chalk you needed in your DFS lineups last year as he went on to win, and that could play out again this year. There’s plenty of volatility and uncertainty among the names priced $9,000 or higher. Don’t overlook a balanced lineup approach.
Lineup Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)
Anyone that listens to the Tour Junkies Podcast will know that we have a deep affection towards Si Woo Kim. He’s THE electric personality of the PGA TOUR. Selecting Si Woo Kim in your lineups requires quite the dance between data and sheer love for the South Korean superstar as he can be rather volatile.
The Wyndham Championship is a spot to take Si Woo Kim. Kim’s last two starts at the Travelers Championship and The Open Championship have not gone well. As experienced Si Woo Kim prognosticators, we know he can be tilting at times, but Sedgefield Country Club has been a place where we’ve seen consistency. Kim has top-five finishes in three of his last four starts, with a withdrawal last year due to a minor illness. With the precision ball-striking and accuracy off the tee needed on this course, you can’t get much better than Kim who ranks in the top 10 in the field in both Driving Accuracy and Ball Striking. Let’s get voltaic this week and fire up some Si Woo Kim in our lineups.
Chris Kirk has put together a very solid season on the PGA TOUR. We see that continuing this week at the Wyndham Championship. He notched a win at The Honda Classic earlier this year, and recently had nice finishes at the John Deere Classic and the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Kirk’s precision accuracy off the tee as well as with his short to mid-irons will serve him well at Sedgefield Country Club. Plus, given the likely birdie-fest, Kirk being one of the best long-term putters in this field will certainly come in handy. At $8,200 on DraftKings, he also lands just above Alex Smalley in the pricing. Smalley should be quite chalky playing on his home course, and Kirk could be an ideal pivot play in your tournament or cash lineups.
For our final DFS selection, let’s push the limits of your tolerance to a player really struggling this season, but has the pedigree to win on any course. Billy Horschel sits at $7,600 on DraftKings coming off a T13 finish at the 3M Open. He gained over four strokes tee to green at the 3M Open. It was the second time in the last 12 months he’s gained four or more strokes tee to green. He’s been dealing quite well with the questions from the media and the heat on Twitter around his poor play. Could Horschel finally be coming back around to the play we’re used to seeing from the five-time PGA TOUR winner?
Given Horschel’s ability to close a tournament and win late on a Sunday, his usual precision ball-striking, his love for Bermuda-covered golf courses, and likely low DFS ownership – we think he’s worth considering in your DFS lineups. The upside for Horschel is just too juicy if he’s finally rounding back into form. Plus, he’s likely to be around 5-8% owned in every contest, so you can go slightly overweight on him and not tank your entire week if he struggles.
For the cherry on top of the Billy Horschel play, let’s look at how he’s played Sedgefield in the past. He’s made nine of 10 cuts with six top 30s and three top 10s. He’s never lost strokes tee to green or off the tee, and he’s gained over 34 strokes total in his last four attempts. He needs to win to have any chance of making the FedExCup Playoffs next week. We believe. Do you?