Golfbet Insider: 3M Open

With nothing but 72 holes of traditional stroke play serving as the platforms for measuring performance in each of the last five tournaments of the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season, it’s the ideal time to review the most important factors that should influence how you build your rosters in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

Aside from the usual real-time variables, this week’s 3M Open and next week’s Wyndham Championship present zero tricks. TPC Twin Cities is the only host in all four previous editions of the 3M Open, while Sedgefield Country Club has served as the stage for the Wyndham since 2008. So, when you review course history, don’t sweat the small stuff. You’re good.

The biggest change this season is that the field for the FedExCup Playoffs has been reduced to the top 70 in points at the conclusion of the Wyndham. This is outstanding for gamers because many charges in Minnesota won’t qualify or might snare but one appearance in the series in which the top 50 after the first leg will advance. Be and stay aggressive, gang.

Countering the paring of qualifiers in the Playoffs is the fact that the last cut of the season will be at Sedgefield. For the first time, the FedEx St. Jude Championship will be a no-cut contest. (The BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship also will not include a cut, but that’s customary.) This isn’t outstanding for gamers in pursuit who used to rely on zeroes from front-runners in the first leg of the Playoffs, so now is your time to go for the slingshot. Once the Playoffs commence, you’ll probably need to be luckier than good.

Meanwhile, a new tool has launched on the website.

“Compare Players” gives you the power to choose up to four golfers in the database and generate the circular grid that has become a familiar visual in spots in our world over the years. Select from any of four statistical categories to populate the “Comparative Analysis.” Golfers are color-coded and previous seasons can be compared. The further a data point is from the center (or the closer to the perimeter), the better the value and his ranking.

Data is generated for all golfers with enough rounds to qualify for statistical rankings. Have fun noodling!

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Justin Thomas (+225 = Top 10) … You can’t win if you don’t play. That’s his reality for his debut in the penultimate stop of the regular season. At 75th in the FedExCup, he’s in danger of failing to qualify for the Playoffs for the first time in his career (2015-present). By most measures, it’s been a forgettable one for the 30-year-old, and while salary leaguers are holding their collective breath that the struggles continue – he’s worth only $3.052M right now – ya still gotta love his commitment this week. You also have to appreciate that he’s sixth-shortest to prevail (at +2500) at last check of BetMGM’s board. This endorsement is all about believing in a reset and his permanent class in a different mindset and physical state than everything that has preceded it. We knew that a handful of the household names would scuffle with the new cadence of Designated events, and he took his allotted break at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play, so once his season started snowballing in the wrong direction, uncharacteristic pressure mounted under the brightest lights and he couldn’t adjust. Because of his situation, he’s an automatic in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, especially for pacers who had planned on saving at least two starts on the 2017 FedExCup champion for the Playoffs. The rub now is that it’d take a valuable performance to return, so hop aboard. Cross your fingers that he gets off to an inspiring start.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, July 26, at 5:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Cameron Champ(+275 = Top 20) … Loyal readers know that I’m sucker for when he’s feelin’ it, but objectively, there are reasons not to abstain for a change. Here he is at the site of his victory in 2021 and a T16 in the title defense where he opened with 4-over 75. Oh, and he’s also on the bounce of a T17 at the Barracuda Championship, which is just his third top 20 of the season. So, if you’re going to invest a fraction of a unit, or 100 percent of it, lean into the heftier kickback because of the converging trends.

Sahith Theegala (-150 = Top 40) … I know it’s not sexy but neither has been his recent form and I promised that he’d be included in the column. On name alone, he’s going to flatten value, but he’s 0-for-2 at TPC Twin Cities (all four rounds are over par) and he’s without a top 25 in three months. He’s also fresh off a fortnight in Great Britain and opted against a breather despite his position at 32nd in the FedExCup. I’ve never shied away from the “what else is he going to do?” angle, but he’s earned the rest despite the negative trajectory. If you were interested in the Miss-the-Cut prop, that’s at +175.

Alex Noren (+260 = Top Swedish) … Ludvig Åberg occupies a spot in my Power Rankings, but it’s impossible to look away from his 41-year-old fellow countryman. With a pair of top 10s and a T23 worldwide in his last five starts, and a T3 in his only previous try at TPC Twin Cities (in 2020), this prop is worth a whirl. Åberg is +138 and Vincent Norrman is +225 for the same, but it’s fair to wonder how much gas remains in Norrman’s tank (even though he delivered in response to his breakthrough title – see the recap for the Barracuda below).

Cam Davis (+170 = Top 20) … The Aussie is 3-for-4 with a pair of top 20s at TPC Twin Cities, so the fit plays, physically and otherwise. He’s scattered five top 20s since mid-March, so the form isn’t a turnoff, either. He’s also +150 to be Top Australasian, but I’m digging Ryan Fox (at +210) for that. The Kiwi is in my Power Rankings.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Ryan Fox, Mark Hubbard and Patrick Rodgers (+240 = All to Make the Cut)

Ryan Gerard (+188 = Top 40)

Doug Ghim (+125 = Top 40)

Adam Hadwin (+165 = Top Canadian)

Grayson Murray (+180 = Top 40)

Justin Suh (+100 = Top 40)

Erik van Rooyen (+220 = Top 40)

Jimmy Walker (+260 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

None.

NOTABLE WDs

Akshay Bhatia … The latest of the 10 breakthrough champions on the PGA TOUR this season debuts at 92nd in the FedExCup. As detailed in this space two weeks ago, FedExCup points collected by non-members in either of the last two opposite events would not contribute to an official total if a non-member won. Well, Bhatia won the Barracuda, so the 38 points he earned for a T9 at the Barbasol Championship and the 300 for the playoff victory on Sunday cannot count for his official sum now that he’s a member. Unless he tosses up one more noisemaker at the Wyndham, he will not qualify for the Playoffs just as Shane Lowry didn’t in 2015. (The Irishman was my example in the explanation linked above.)

David Lingmerth … Because he’s 71st in the FedExCup, he’s leaving his chance to qualify for the Playoffs to the Wyndham where he’s just 2-for-5 and without a top-35 finish. So, this presents as an interesting time to break even though he’s been on the road for five consecutive weeks. Then again, it’s not like he’s shut out, and sometimes perspective on a career arc can be overlooked and undervalued by us. Consider that one year ago, he was clinging to a spot inside the top 200 of the FedExCup while navigating the season on Past Champion status. Today, he’s a shoo-in to retain his 2024 card with the bonus of a berth in the Playoffs directly in front of him at Sedgefield.

Luke List … Second consecutive early withdrawal and fourth since the RBC Canadian Open. He was dealing with an injured foot but the latest malady is a sore thumb that knocked him out at the 11th hour before last week’s Barracuda. (It has not been specified which thumb is injured.) At 115th in the FedExCup, the timer has just about reached triple-zeroes to get into the Playoffs, but the 38-year-old is fully exempt next season by virtue of his breakthrough win at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2022. At this point, even dynasty leaguers wouldn’t miss him if he’s out all fall, while salary leaguers likely would bite at $1.117M … as long as he’s healthy.

RECAP – The Open Championship

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer = Result

1 Rory McIlroy = T6

2 Scottie Scheffler = T23

3 Cameron Smith = T33

4 Tyrrell Hatton = T20

5 Rickie Fowler = T23

6 Brooks Koepka = T64

7 Jon Rahm = T2

8 Tommy Fleetwood = T10

9 Viktor Hovland = T13

10 Dustin Johnson = MC

11 Xander Schauffele = T17

12 Jordan Spieth = T23

13 Patrick Cantlay = T33

14 Shane Lowry = MC

15 Robert MacIntyre = T71

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet) = Result

Alexander Björk (+220 = Top Swedish) = T41 (Henrik Stenson = T13)

Thorbjørn Olesen (+200 = Top Dane) = MC

Yannik Paul (+1600 = Top Debutant) = MC

Jordan Smith (+500 = Top 20) = T41

Brendon Todd (+700 = Top 20) = T49

GOLFBET INSIDER

Team (recommended bet) = Result

Wild Card: Collin Morikawa (+115 = Top 20) = MC

*Also Starring: Justin Thomas (+188 = Miss the Cut) = MC

Also Starring: Matt Fitzpatrick (-150 = Top 40) = T41

*Also Starring: Matthew Jordan (+188 = Top 40) = T10

Tap-in: PARLAY: Scottie Scheffler & Cameron Smith (+333 = Both Top 10) = T23/T33

Tap-in: PARLAY: Thorbjørn Olesen & Victor Perez (+950 = Both Top 40) = MC/T41

Tap-in: Jason Day (+150 = Miss the Cut) = T2

Tap-in: Ewen Ferguson (+200 = Top 40) = MC

Tap-in: Zach Johnson (+400 = Top 40) = T55

Tap-in: Robert MacIntyre (+130 = Top Scot) = T71 (Michael Stewart = T52)

Tap-in: Ryan Fox (+100 = Top 40) = T52

Returning: Seamus Power (+188 = Top 40) = MC

RECAP – Barracuda Championship

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer = Result

1 Mark Hubbard = T10

2 Grayson Murray = MC

3 Taylor Pendrith = MC

4 Stephan Jaeger = T34

5 Patrick Rodgers = P2

6 Justin Suh = T34

7 Vincent Norrman = T25

8 Chez Reavie = T55

9 Akshay Bhatia = P1

10 Nathan Kimsey = T25

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Golfer = Result

Sean Crocker = T10

Rico Hoey = T20

Maximilian Kieffer = T60

Keith Mitchell = MC

Kyle Reifers = MC

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