FRL: Factor in the FedExCup race with caution

While the major championship season of 2023 may be complete, the betting season remains in full swing as the golf spotlight returns stateside to Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open. The impact of trimming the postseason qualifiers from 125 to 70 has had a positive effect on the field in Minnesota as more top players in the game find themselves needing to tee it up this week – either to maintain their position in the FedExCup standings or to make a push to get inside the top 70. Although, I’m not sure that at all changes our job of trying to find a First Round Leader.

Players will have this week and next at the Wyndham Championship to get into the postseason field. Handicapping motivation is a difficult thing and is it quantifiable? Because Player X is sitting on that top 70 bubble, are they able to “flip a switch” and play better golf this particular week – because of what’s on the line or the urgency of time left to do so? It is also not uncommon, especially late in the season as it is, to look to the Ryder Cup and what motivation is present there to earn a spot on the team. All of these questions exist and will for at least a couple more weeks on TOUR.

I do believe the motivational notion can be applied to some players and no, I don’t think it is something to be leaned on too heavily but as with anything any of us do, I don’t believe it hurts to have a goal in mind – or to have that awareness of what is at stake when preparing for the task at hand. At the same time, the pressure of this type of situation could hinder a player too.

My approach remains the same as any other week but if I happen to land on a player who also has a heightened reason to have a successful week, I feel like that can positively bump a player on the list of who ultimately makes my card. Sure, this week is important for every player in the field but we are always looking for any edge we can find. Maybe we can classify this as the “intangibles” as one of the categories of our handicap.

I came up with three selections for First Round Leader and I ended up with these selections before looking at their FedExCup standings or any possible Ryder Cup implications. As I noted, if it looks like a positive motivational situation stands for one of these selections in addition to our standard handicapping process, then that can probably be looked at as simply a bonus.

Adam Hadwin (+4100)

As is often the case, players that look good for a First Round Leader play, look like a possible outright tournament winner play too – and I do feel that way about Hadwin. It was not long ago that he finished 12th in the RBC Canadian Open and even more recent when he suffered a near miss at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, losing in a playoff to Rickie Fowler. Hadwin has finished fourth and sixth here at the 3M Open in past editions. Over the last 36 rounds, he is third in this field for Bogey Avoidance and fourth for Strokes Gained: Approach. As far as the first round goes, he’s posted Thursday scores of 64-67-and-68 here in Minnesota and ranks 32nd on TOUR in First Round Scoring average. Hadwin is currently 37th in the FedExCup Standings. His position in the postseason is safe but getting into the top 30 and a trip to the TOUR Championship is a possible point of motivation.

Mark Hubbard (+5600)

Hubbard is 55th in the FedExCup standings and that is a position that has to have his attention, one would think. Hubbard is obviously not chasing the top 70 at this point but is looking to maintain his spot in what would currently be a postseason berth. He ranks third in this field for SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds, 25th for SG: Putting (Bent grass), and 13th for Birdies or Better Gained. He has only played this event once before, in 2021. He finished 16th and shot an opening round 68. Hubbard is fresh off of a sixth-place finish in the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, which I believe, can be a pointer or comparable course to TPC Twin Cities. He ranks 46th on TOUR in First Round Scoring average.

Adam Svensson (+7600)

I also feel that Sea Island can be a comparable course to TPC Twin Cities and it was last fall at Sea Island where Svensson won the RSM Classic as a 150-1 long shot. This will be his third time playing the 3M Open. In 2019, he finished 15th. He opened with a round of 70 that year but followed it up with a round of 64 on Friday. Svensson, like Hadwin, is 36th in the FedExCup standings – so a trip back to Georgia is likely on his radar as well. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 18th in this field for SG: Putting (Bent grass) and 54th for SG: Approach. Svensson is also 59th on TOUR in Driving Accuracy which is another area of importance I believe at this golf course.