With just two events remaining before the FedExCup Playoffs, the stakes are certainly high at the 3M Open this week.

Unlike previous seasons, the field for the opening Playoffs event – the FedEx St. Jude Championship – is just 70 players. And it’s not just the chance at the lucrative FedExCup they chase, but also exemptions into full-field events in 2024. And for those who make it to the BMW Championship as part of the top 50, eligibility for the designated events also is on the line.

Justin Thomas headlines some of the names outside the top 70 that might surprise you with just the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship left to play in the regular season. The two-time major winner and former FedExCup champion is in danger of missing the Playoffs altogether if he can’t find some form in the next fortnight.

At 75th in the FedExCup standings, Thomas heads to TPC Twin Cities this week to save his season and to remind U.S. Captain Zach Johnson of his capabilities. I can’t even fathom what the odds would have been earlier this year for Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman making the team and Thomas missing out… but that’s a distinct possibility.

K.H. Lee currently sits 70th on the points list with 567 points. He’ll be looking to add to his tally this week. There are 500 points available to the winner over the last two weeks, with a cascading points distribution for those making the weekend.

Generally speaking, making a cut will gain you at least somewhere between 2-5 points, a 40th place finish alone is worth 16 points, a top 25 comes in around the 30s, 10th alone is worth 75 points and an outright second would net 300 points.

So the chance is certainly there for players well down the list to make a late push. Let’s take a look at five competitors who could burst into the top 70 with a good week at TPC Twin Cities.

JUSTIN THOMAS (+2500 to win 3M Open)

FedExCup Rank: 75

Points: 546

Points behind 70th: 21

It’s been such a bizarre season for the 15-time PGA TOUR winner and 2017 FedExCup champ. A fourth-place finish back in February at the WM Phoenix Open is his only top five of the year and he’s missed four of his last six cuts, which included rounds of 81 and 82 at the U.S. Open and The Open.

We all know what JT is capable of at his best. He even gave us a glimmer of hope at the Travelers Championship with a 62 in the third round on his way to a T9 finish. But can we trust that he will rebound this week?

I have ZERO doubt Thomas will at some point return to the player capable of leading the world rankings. I just don’t know whether this week will be when he starts his ascent again.

Here is a quick look at some of his 2022 rankings versus where he has fallen this season.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 16th to 67th.

Driving Distance: 14th to 44th

Strokes Gained: Approach: Eighth to 41st.

Greens in Regulation: 34th to 132nd

Strokes Gained: Putting: 85th to 160th.

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: Third to 23rd.

Strokes Gained: Total: Fourth to 44th.

While I’m definitely not advocating an outright betting play this week, the good news for Thomas is at just 21 points behind 70th place in the standings he only needs to be solo 34th or better this week to have a chance to move inside the bubble.

On pure talent alone this should be an attainable goal. And we know he’s a gritty competitor.

Bottom Line: Avoid outright market, possible fade in matchups, but could grind out a top-40 finish at -190.

CAM DAVIS (+3300 to win)

FedExCup Rank: 77

Points: 535

Points behind 70th: 32

I’ll be honest: This is not the season I was expecting from the Aussie youngster after his breakout efforts at the Presidents Cup last year. But there were certainly mitigating circumstances as an early season illness saw him go on a run of five missed cuts in a row.

Davis finally got healthy and landed a T6 at THE PLAYERS. He added a quality T7 at RBC Heritage and a T4 at the PGA Championship and I figured… here he comes. But just as it was rolling, he’s missed four of his last six cuts and had to sit around Royal Liverpool last week as the first alternate without getting into the championship.

The 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic winner is a course fit for this week, with a T12 in 2020, T28 in 2021 and a T16 in 2022. Coincidentally, at 32 points behind 70th in the standings, Davis needs a minimum of a solo 27th-place finish this week to move inside the bubble.

He’s 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and 36th in SG: Tee to Green, two vital stats for TPC Twin Cities, and he ranks 20th in driving distance. Former winners here include Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ and Tony Finau.

Bottom Line: Davis is an outright option to win this week and the top five (+650) and top 10 (+300) markets are also targets.

JOEL DAHMEN (+15000 to win)

FedExCup Rank: 81

Points: 515

Points behind 70th: 52

A champion of the people, this “Full Swing” star finally broke a slide down the FedExCup rankings with a T10 at the Barracuda Championship after a run of five missed cuts. But while it was a welcome return to some form, his back nine on Sunday was also a killer of sorts.

Dahmen had three bogeys in his final six holes dropping from a potential tie for third into a tie for 10th. That’s a difference of 49.5 points… and he’s now 52 points behind 70th!

In his only previous appearance at the 3M Open he was T67 in 2021, and he’s chasing solo 16th or better this week to make a push inside the bubble.

Bottom Line: Hard to advocate as a longshot given recent form. Even a top 40 at +188 seems a stretch, but I’d love to see it to give him a shot at Wyndham.

GARY WOODLAND (+4000 to win)

FedExCup Rank: 90

Points: 436

Points behind 70th: 131

The former U.S. Open champion is a distant 131 points behind 70th spot in the FedExCup rankings, but it’s a timely course fit for Woodland, who needs a top-four finish to have a chance to move inside the bubble this week.

Woodland was T11 in his previous trip to TPC Twin Cities in 2021 and could replicate something similar again this week. At 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green, he has the firepower to contend, and Woodland also ranks 19th on TOUR in Birdies or Better percentage from 175-200 yards – an historically key distance in the event.

Bottom Line: The +175 price for a top 20 appears a nice, conservative slot for Woodland, who has win potential.

TAYLOR PENDRITH (+5500 to win 3M Open)

FedExCup Rank: 108

Points: 379

Points behind 70th: 188

Much like Davis above, bigger things were expected from Pendrith this season after his efforts in the Presidents Cup. Instead, he’s way back in 108th in the FedExCup and in need of at least one big week to make his move.

The bad news is, at 188 points adrift, a minimum of a top-three finish this week would be needed for a chance to move inside the bubble. The good news is… I think he can do it.

While he missed the cut at the Barracuda Championship last week, the big-hitting Canadian was T14 at the Rocket Mortgage and sixth at the Barbasol Championship in his prior starts. And his game trends to TPC Twin Cities.

At 41st in TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee, 27th in driving distance and 27th in Greens in Regulation, he has some pedigree where it counts. Pendrith also ranks third in proximity and 15th in Birdie or Better Percentage from 175-200 yards.

On the greens, Pendrith is money from inside 10 feet. He’s ranked eighth on TOUR. Unfortunately, it’s the 191st from 10-15 feet and 147th from 15-20 feet that has hurt.

Bottom Line: If Pendrith can make just a handful more of his 15-footers, he’s worth a small play as a sneaky outright winner option.