Odds Outlook: Defending champion Tony Finau tops the betting favorites at the 3M Open

The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, will be the first of two final chances to book a spot in the season-ending FedExCup Playoffs. The PGA TOUR regular season wraps up next week at the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina. New this season, only the top 70 players will be eligible for the Playoffs.

The focus for Tony Finau (+1200) this week will center on defending his 3M title. Sitting at No. 10 in the FedExCup standings, another big week in the Twin Cities will push him up the board and he’s the outright betting favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook to go back-to-back. Finau has never missed the cut in four previous visits and also has a podium (T3) finish from 2020. The par-71 layout playing 7,431 yards has been one of Finau’s favorites. Posting red figures in 15 of 16 rounds, all of his paydays have resulted in T28 or better. Although he has two wins this season, including a late April showdown over Jon Rahm, Finau has not posted a top-25 finish in his last six events on TOUR.

Cameron Young (+1600) and his love for The Open were affirmed last week. After cashing T2 at The Open at St Andrews last year, he backed up his podium finish with T8 at Royal Liverpool. Coming off back-to-back top-10 paydays, the premium power player is still looking for his first win on TOUR. TPC Twin Cities has produced big-hitting champions in three of its four editions.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) posted three rounds of 70 or better last week at Royal Liverpool to cash T13. His work rate in the final major championship of the season matched his result at the Travelers Championship for the best paycheck in 10 events after signing for T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship. The Japanese star will be looking for his first win since The Sony Open in Hawaii in January 2022. Making his third visit to Minnesota, his first round in the inaugural event in 2019 produced his best score, 64, and led to his only finish, T7. Matsuyama withdrew last year after 77 in Round 1.

Sungjae Im (+1800) should be excited again this week to see the 15 water penalty areas in The Land of 10,000 Lakes. Driving the golf ball is one of his strengths, as he sits in the top 35 of SG: Off the Tee and Driving Accuracy. The 2022 co-runner-up has posted eight rounds of 70 or better and is 28-under total. Without a top 10 paycheck since the first week of May at Wells Fargo, the South Korean has cashed three of his last four inside the top 30, including T20 last week, the best of the bunch.

Justin Thomas (+2200) is the only player listed better than +3000 who is NOT currently in the top 70 (No. 75) of the FedExCup standings. Missing the weekend from four of his last six starts, including 82-71 last week at Hoylake, the two-time major champion is facing major pressure to add his name to the three-week stretch of postseason field lists. Signs of the “old” JT appeared briefly, with a stretch of 64-62-67 to close for T9 at TPC River Highlands in June. The momentum was short-lived as he followed that stretch with MC-T60-MC. Looking to play his way into the FEC Playoffs, this will be his second new venue (Detroit Golf Club) in the last four weeks.

Emiliano Grillo (+2500) has warmed up as spring rolled into summer. In his last 10 events, he’s won a playoff at Colonial and added three more top-10 paydays, including T6 last week. The Argentine loves his golf in Minnesota as he joined Im as co-runner-up last season and was T3 in 2020, closing 64-65.

The winner from the John Deere Classic three weeks ago, Sepp Straka (+2800), tried to run down his fellow Georgia alum Brian Harman at Royal Liverpool. The Austrian, playing for the first time since his victory at TPC Deere Run, shared second, picking up his second top-10 paycheck in four major championships (T7, PGA Championship) this season. Making his fourth appearance at the 3M Open, he closed with 63 in 2020 for T18, his only result from three trips.

Here's a look at some of the other notable odds this week in Minnesota, via BetMGM, including Akshay Bhatia who heads to TPC Twin Cities after earning his first career PGA TOUR victory Sunday at the Barracuda Championship:

+3300: Ludvig Aberg

+3500: Sahith Theegala

+4000: Adam Hadwin, Cam Davis, Gary Woodland, Keith Mitchell, Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger

+4500: J.J. Spaun, J.T. Poston, Mark Hubbard, Patrick Rodgers

+5000: Aaron Rai

+5500: Akshay Bhatia, Beau Hossler, Eric Cole, Lucas Glover, Ryan Fox, Taylor Pendrith, Vincent Norrman

+6600: Alex Noren, Tom Hoge, Austin Eckroat,

+8000: 2021 winner Cameron Champ, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Doug Ghim, Garrick Higgo, Justin Suh, K.H. Lee, Lee Hodges, Matt Kuchar,

+9000: Adam Svensson, Brandon Wu, Peter Kuest, Taylor Montgomery

+10000: Billy Horschel, Kevin Yu, Ryan Palmer, Sam Stevens, Ben Griffin, Chez Reavie, Grayson Sigg, Michael Kim, Nate Lashley, Nick Hardy, Sam Bennett, Stewart Cink

How it works:

· Field of 156 players.

· The top 65 players and ties will play the final two rounds.

· Cameron Young, No. 15, is the highest-ranked player in the field and leads the group of 11 of the top 50 OWGR.

· Prize purse of $7.8 million, including $1.404 million and 500 FedExCup points to the winner.

Please circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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