FRL: Expect another (major) fast start from Xander Schauffele at Royal Liverpool

"I was the first-round leader of the last major championship of 2023," might be a story a great golfer would want to tell their grandchildren. But here in this column, we are more focused on a story that begins with, "I nailed the First Round Leader in the final major of the season at +3500."

It is very fitting that the winner of the claret jug is anointed the "Champion Golfer of the Year,” with the Open Championship now being the final major of the season - and this championship does truly feel so global. The finality of it justifies the magnification. At the same time, I believe one can argue that this is the most competitive field in major championship history. There will be some stories told about the 151st Open Championship, for sure - for a long time. Let's see if we can write one before they begin Round 2.

For The Open in particular, we are going to be looking for a class player in the field to be our First Round Leader. The last 10 outright winners of the championship have all been ranked inside the Top 40 in the OWGR and six of those 10 have been ranked in the Top 10. Furthermore, only two Open winners in the last 18 editions have been outside of the Top 10 on the leaderboard after Day 1. Of course, our two most recent winners at Open Championships at Royal Liverpool are Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy – not only class players but a couple of the best ever – so if history is any indicator, it ought to be a top-notch player in the lead heading into Friday.

As we have pointed out before, the typical method of First Round Leader success is players separating themselves from the field by excelling early in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting. I am also going to narrow down our choices by sticking with players teeing off earlier in the morning rather than in the afternoon.

Finally, I am also going to look to performance on some of the correlated courses I used this week. I felt some parallels could be drawn to Royal Liverpool with The Renaissance Club, where they play the Scottish Open last week, Muirfield, Troon, and Royal Portrush – which was also a golf course renovated by Martin Ebert, who did the same at Hoylake, beginning in 2020. Stateside, I figured there were some connections to TPC Sawgrass, home to THE PLAYERS Championship, and PGA National, where they play the Honda Classic.

Given those search confines, here’s a look at some of the players that will make my FRL card – and will hopefully be topping the leaderboard by Thursday evening (odds via BetMGM Sportsbook):

Xander Schauffele (+3500)

Schauffele hauled in First Round Leader honors at our last major, the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club in June by shooting a 62 and tying Rickie Fowler. Since 2017, Schauffele has fired six rounds in The Open that have gained three or more strokes on the field. In three of those instances, he gained five or more shots on the field. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks fifth in this field for SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Putting on slow greens. He has also finished as high as runner-up at TPC Sawgrass and was the winner at The Renaissance Club in 2022. Schauffele ranks fifth on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average.

Jordan Spieth (+4000)

Spieth has never missed a cut in his career at an Open Championship, and of course he also has a claret jug that he captured at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – where he was also your First Round Leader, shooting an opening-round 65. Spieth finished runner-up to Collin Morikawa in 2021 and sat tied for second place after Round 1, shooting yet another opening round 65. Spieth ranks ninth in this field for SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds and 10th for SG: Putting on slow greens. Ten times in his Open Championship career has Spieth played rounds in which he gained three or more strokes on the field. On five of those occasions, he gained five or more shots on the field.

Hideki Matsuyama (+6600)

Before the 2020 PLAYERS Championship was cancelled due to COVID-19, Hideki Matsuyama was your First Round Leader, shooting a course-record 63 on that Thursday. He’s recorded three top-10 finishes in his career at TPC Sawgrass. He also took sixth at Muirfield in 2013. He ranks 73rd in this field for SG: Putting on slow greens over the last 36 rounds, which is not tremendous but that does make him better than half of the field, too. He ranks seventh for SG: Approach. Matsuyama is also 15th in the field for SG: Around the Green – and another First Round Leader stat we like, he ranks fourth in this field over the last 36 rounds for Bogey Avoidance.

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