DFS Dish: Time for Tony Finau to shine at challenging Royal Liverpool

Tournament Preview (David Barnett)

The final major championship of 2023 goes down in Hoylake at Royal Liverpool, as the best in the world look to win the 151st Open Championship. Typically, we see The Open provide the highest amount of variance given the unpredictable nature of the weather in links golf. Royal Liverpool could be described as a seaside links course, but the golf gods don’t look too keen on giving us the high winds this week as of Tuesday.

Given the rather mild (but subject to change quickly) weather forecast as well as what we’re already hearing from the course, it appears that swing speed will be a distinct advantage. We’re hearing the course is softer than even 2014’s edition. Plus, players will have to contend with the longest back nine in Open Championship history. It’s safe to assume that players will be especially tested in the long iron department. Toss in temperatures in the 50s and low 60s all week, and it certainly becomes difficult to roster some of the shorter, more precision players in your DFS lineups.

We’d still advise to wait until later on Wednesday before feeling too attached to your DFS player pool. You will need to have a firm understanding of any weather wave advantage for the first two rounds before locking in your players. The Open is notorious for sizable wave advantages in the first two rounds. Even if a clear wave doesn’t have an advantage as of late Wednesday, we know the weather in this area can change quickly. If you’re running out 10+ lineups, it may not be a bad idea to have a couple of lineups stacked with each wave just in case things get weird.

Finally, we’ll end on a few trends from the last two Open Championships when it comes to GPP winning lineups. Six of the top 10 DraftKings point scorers the last two years were priced at $9K or higher. There are too many good players up top to avoid them all. You shouldn’t play them all, but you need to land on a few to build lineups around. The perfect possible DFS lineup the last two Open Championships would have seen combined total ownership below 60%. Don’t be afraid to pivot and play names under the radar. Finally, do NOT feel obligated to use every dollar of your $50K salary cap on DraftKings. Neither of the last two possible perfect lineups for The Open would have used all its salary, and 2021 would’ve left $1,500 on the table!

Lineup Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)

When building your DFS lineups, it often feels like you should start at the top of the price ranges and work your way down from there. If there’s any week to start building in a cheaper price range and then fill in your favorite high-priced players, this year's Open Championship is a week to do just that. This strategy will allow you to nail down the lower-tier players you like and then backfill with the myriad of fantastic higher-end options we have available to choose from.

In that fashion, let’s start with a low-priced play we like. Robert MacIntyre has been playing some great golf recently, culminating in his second-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. His stellar play shouldn’t have come as a surprise, though, as he finished fourth the week prior and has five top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour this year. Plus, he’s finished top 10 in The Open two of the last three years. He may be high-owned at $6,800 on DraftKings, but we can find leverage elsewhere.

We often find in majors that we can sometimes get what we would call a “dead range” in the DraftKings pricing. It typically occurs because of the way the majority of players go about building their lineups. The dead range this week is around $8,000 on DraftKings. Other than maybe Wyndham Clark, who has been amazing all season, this entire group of players has a lot of question marks.

Enter Tony Finau. Finau ($8,200) has been inconsistent at best since his win in Mexico in April, but that can be almost entirely attributed to his cold putter. The Open isn’t likely to be a birdie fest, and the greens at Royal Liverpool don’t present a daunting challenge. This creates a nice opportunity for Finau to land his first major championship. Plus, Finau’s Open Championship record speaks for itself, having finished no worse than 28th in his last five starts.

Last week you found Ryan Fox ($7,400) in this spot, and we’re going back to the well again. Like MacIntyre, he’s just severely underpriced on DraftKings. He’s one of the best total drivers on any tour. And from numerous reports, Royal Liverpool (barring wind direction) is going to play long. Fox has missed one cut all year. He’s gained strokes on approach shots in 12 of his last 13 events. Historically, he’s been a terrible putter. However, he’s clearly done something to improve his putting in 2023. Based on 2023, you could argue he’s been an above average putter. Last week at the Scottish Open, he gained just over 4 strokes with the flat stick. Team TJ loves Ryan Fox in all formats this week.