DFS Dish: Watch the Euros (and the weather) for lineups at Genesis Scottish Open
5 Min Read
![DFS Dish: Watch the Euros (and the weather) for lineups at Genesis Scottish Open](https://res.cloudinary.com/pgatour-prod/w_854,h_480,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto/pgatour/news/editorial/2023/07/11/adrian-meronk-new-dfs-dish-genesis.jpg)
Tournament Preview (David Barnett)
We’ve got coffee golf and featured groups coming for the next two weeks, as the best on the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour show up to The Renaissance Club in Scotland for the Genesis Scottish Open. There’s not much better for us American golf addicts than waking up to our favorite golfers playing links golf overseas.
This is the second renewal of the Genesis Scottish Open operating under the strategic alliance between the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour. However, The Renaissance Club did play host to the Scottish Open from 2019-21. The winning score of 7 under last year from Xander Schauffele in windy conditions allowed this course to show its teeth after winning scores at in previous years ranged from 11 under to 22 under.
![Flyover: The Renaissance Club | 2023](https://res.cloudinary.com/pgatour-prod/image/fetch/h_900,w_1600,c_fit/https://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/6082840763001/f4be727d-939b-4ce8-9431-8621b316290c/382584fc-51c2-42ae-9176-c5df44358d93/1600x900/match/image.jpg)
Flyover: The Renaissance Club | 2023
If you read nothing else in this article, read the following: don’t make your final DFS lineups until you’ve got a firm grasp on the weather projections. In 2022, the AM/PM wave had more than a two-shot advantage, with wind conditions playing a major factor. The weather in Scotland changes frequently. With razor-thin margins inherent in golf, having your selections already playing from behind due to a bad weather draw is not ideal. However, due to the unpredictable nature of weather in Scotland, we do recommend wave stacking both sides of the draw to some extent even if you favor one over another. You can certainly favor a wave, but if the weather flips, or we get delays, then you’ve protected yourself against drawing totally dead if you’ve got a handful of lineups stacked on the opposite side.
Let’s go back in time to this event in 2022 and observe how things worked out in the DFS streets. Half of the top 10 DraftKings points scorers last year were in the $6K range! HALF in the $6K! And, only three of the top 10 most popular players last year paid off their price, including ONLY Xander Schauffele in the entire $9K and $10K range.
Links golf, Scottish weather, and the small sample size of golf at The Renaissance Club all add up to a ton of possible variance. Had you faded most of the pre-tournament chalk in DFS in 2022, you likely had a profitable DFS week. Don’t get too married to your picks prior to weather and ownership evaluations late on Wednesday. Overall, the chalk has done quite well this PGA TOUR season. But if there’s ever a two-week stretch for the chalk to bomb, it would be here and next week at The Open. Tread lightly and don’t be afraid to pivot to less popular players with similar upside.
Lineup Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)
As golf fans and DFS players, we often like to talk about a player being “due”. Well, is there any player who is more due than Tommy Fleetwood right now? After a year or so of some mediocre play by Fleetwood’s standards, he has pretty much done everything but win in 2023. That may not change this week, but he certainly looks like someone who we need some exposure to regardless of ownership and variance. Fleetwood checks all the boxes in terms of pertinent stats. In addition to his recent form, the T4 here in 2022 and his extensive links record all add up to a compelling case for Tommy Fleetwood being chalk worth taking on in DFS.
It’s always exciting and a welcome change this time of year when we hop across the pond. One main reason for that is getting exposure to the great players on the DP World Tour we don’t have the pleasure of seeing most weeks on the PGA TOUR. A perfect example is Alexander Bjork, priced quite cheaply at $7,300 on DraftKings. Bjork has been consistent all year with no missed cuts, 10 top-20 finishes, and four straight finishes inside the top 10. He wasn’t spectacular last year in this event, finishing 42nd, but with the way Bjork has been playing recently, there appears to be some significant upside with his affordable price tag.
Continuing the DPWT love, Adrian Meronk is grossly under-priced on DraftKings this week at $7,300. Yes, he missed his last two cuts stateside. However, consider his last four starts in DPWT events: T15 at the British Masters, T3 at the BMW International Open, T5 at the KLM Open, and a win at the Italian Open. He’s one of the best total drivers of the golf ball on any tour, averaging almost a stroke gained per round off the tee since May. The irons have been a little hit or miss almost all year, but he’s gained strokes overall. Meronk’s very likely to make the cut with legitimate top-10 upside.
And rounding out the European quad of picks, we have Ryan Fox. Like Meronk, Fox is criminally underpriced at $7300, considering his pedigree. Fox hasn’t missed a single cut in 2023! Known as a bomber, he’s gained strokes off the tee in every event this year, with only 2 exceptions. But if you break down the rest of his game, he’s made really nice strides across the board. His approach play has been excellent since the Masters in April, he’s about breakeven around the greens (though he used to be quite poor), and he’s evolved into an above-average putter. In 2022, he hemorrhaged strokes on the greens, routinely losing over a stroke per round. But in 2023, he’s gained a full stroke putting in 8 of 12 events. The last time he played in Scotland was the Alfred Dunhill Links in October of last year. Coincidentally, he won the event.