Odds Outlook: Denny McCarthy among betting favorites to become latest first-time winner at John Deere

The PGA TOUR celebrates the Fourth of July in the heartland of America at the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Illinois.

The 23rd edition at TPC Deere Run features 2019 runner-up Russell Henley (+1400) as the co-favorite. The former Georgia Bulldog will be looking to add to his four career titles and second this season. The winner at Mayakoba blasted away with 63-63 after 36 holes and eventually won by four on 23 under. He’ll need a similar score this week if he’s looking to add to his win total. Eight of his last nine paydays have cashed T19 or better.

Joining Henley at the top of the BetMGM Sportsbook board is Denny McCarthy (+1400). He’ll be looking to lift the trophy for the first time on TOUR. Three of the last five winners at TPC Deere Run have been first-time winners on TOUR. McCarthy went close on the Bentgrass at the Memorial but was knocked out in a playoff by Viktor Hovland. He rocketed to the top of the leaderboard at TPC River Highlands two weeks ago after 60 in Round 1. Finishing T7, he picked up his 20th payday from 24 starts on the season and his third top ten from his last six starts. Last year he provided his best edition in four tries as he sat 16-under at the Par-71 (7,286 yards) 54 holes before cashing T6.

Still looking for his first win on TOUR, Cameron Young (+2000) will be looking to pick up his first top 10 since cashing T7 at Augusta National in early April. The powerful ball-striker hasn’t found anything inside the top 30 in his next seven events. The highlight was T32 at LACC (North Course) at the U.S. Open. His other five paydays are T51 or worse. Not many will argue with his game from tee to green. Improvement on the Bentgrass (No. 177 SG: Putting) will be a key to winning this annual shootout.

Ludvig Aberg (+2200) shouldn’t be sneaking up on bettors anymore. The No. 1 European amateur in 2021 evolved into the No. 1 amateur in the world in 2022. The former Texas Tech Red Raider has a full exemption after finishing his college career atop the PGA TOUR University rankings. He turned pro last month at the RBC CO and cashed his first check for T25. Last week he opened 65-67 in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (T40) after adding another top-25 payday (T24) the previous week at the Travelers Championship.

Inspired by countryman Nick Taylor winning their national open last month, Canadian Adam Hadwin (+2800) attempted to add to his country’s win total last week in Detroit before falling to Rickie Fowler in a playoff. Taylor and Hadwin split second place money as a team at the Zurich Classic in April. Needing only 106 putts last week, and an eagle against just three bogeys for the week. Hot as a firecracker!

Taylor Moore (+2800) broke through for his first win on TOUR in March at Valspar outside Tampa. Breaking a streak of three consecutive MC with T4 last week in Detroit, it appears he’s dialed in again. Opening with 64, his lowest round on his own ball this season, he signed for 21-under, cashing his third top 10 in his last 11 starts. Going low will be a necessity again this week in the Quad Cities.

Adam Schenk (+3000) became a first-time father earlier this season, and his game appears due to win for the first time. Finishing second to Moore at Valspar, he also went close at Colonial, losing to Emiliano Grillo in a playoff. He opened June with T7 at the Memorial, and opened July last week solo seventh at RMC in Detroit. His streak of two consecutive top-10 finishes at JDC ended last year following a WD after Round 1.

Defending champ J.T. Poston (+4000) returns to defend his title in hopes of turning around his summer. Poston won by three shots last year at TPC Deere Run but has missed the cut in three of his last four starts and five of seven since a T34 finish at the Masters.

Here's a look at some of the other notable odds for the field this week, where the winner will receive a two-year TOUR exemption in addition to spots in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, PLAYERS, Masters and PGA Championship in 2024:

+3300: Alex Smalley, Emiliano Grillo, Eric Cole, Keith Mitchell

+3500: Stephan Jaeger

+4000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Patrick Rodgers, Nick Taylor, Seamus Power

+4500: Byeong-Hun An, Doug Ghim

+5000: Brendon Todd, K.H. Lee, Mark Hubbard, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Sepp Straka, Taylor Montgomery

+5500: Beau Hossler, Chez Reavie

+6600: Adam Svensson, Dylan Wu, Gordon Sargent, Joseph Bramlett, Peter Kuest, Callum Tarren, Tournament record holder Michael Kim

+8000: David Lipsky, Garrick Higgo, Davis Thompson, Greyson Sigg, Kevin Streelman, Kevin Yu, 2021 winner Lucas Glover, Luke List, Nick Hardy, Patton Kizzire, SH Kim, Sam Stevens, Will Gordon

+9000: Chesson Hadley, Justin Lower, Nate Lashley, Sam Ryder

How it works:

· Field of 156 players.

· Top 65players and ties will play the final two rounds.

· Nine of the top 50 OWGR entered.

· Purse of $7.4 million with $1.332 million to the winner, along with 500 FedExCup points.

Circle back later this week as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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