Golfbet Insider: Rocket Mortgage Classic

Justin Thomas is 66th in the FedExCup, and that’s 12 spots better after a T9 at the Travelers Championship was calculated.

So what, you wonder? He’s not in jeopardy of losing his card. Well, since you’re reading this, you’ll be glad you are, because it could set you up shrewdly for the stretch run in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

Because only the top 70 in the FedExCup comprise the field for the Playoffs, as it stands right now, JT is not guaranteed of advancing to the second leg for which the top 50 at the conclusion of the FedEx St. Jude Championship qualify. And, because he’s not even a lock to get in at all, based on how he performs in the interim, you may get chances to roster him only at this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship; that is, if he matches the same commitments as last year.

Now, he’s already added his debut at the Rocket Mortgage, and he promises to be on a week-to-week parade of if-then decisions concerning his schedule, but it’s pointless to save a start for the TOUR Championship where he’s been a beast. If he advances all the way to East Lake this season, it will have been due to at least one outstanding result, but most likely no less than two. So, the smart strategy really is the only strategy. If you’re of the confidence that he’s going to rise to the occasion(s), just as he did at TPC River Highlands, then roster him as often as you can without pause.

Of course, Thomas isn’t the only piece of chalk in the same situation, he’s just the thickest slab. A cursory review of the current FedEx standings reveals a litany of stars who demand similar aggression when considering who to burn when, as in as soon as possible.

Collin Morikawa (32nd in the FedExCup), Sungjae Im (34th) and Hideki Matsuyama (52nd) are standouts in the field at Detroit Golf Club and very much on the bubble to reach the Playoffs finale, so have at it. Others to jot down who aren’t competing this week but for whom you should consider sooner than later include Matt Fitzpatrick (29th), Tommy Fleetwood (31st), Cameron Young (48th), Shane Lowry (74th) and Adam Scott (76th).

This subset of talent not only will help you save starts on the guys you’ve targeted to end-load the season in the Playoffs when FedEx bonus points are quadrupled, but they’ll also serve as timely spells in the Scottish-Open fortnight on the horizon. League championships won’t be won during that stretch in Great Britain and weather likely will play a significant role in at least one of them, so remain as fluid as possible in real time for both.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Chris Kirk (-110 = Top 40) … Crawls in on an 0-for-3 skid, but he’s a proven horse for courses, so multiply the unit with odds that are likely longer than they would be if, say, he wasn’t crawling in 0-for-3. In three previous trips to the Rocket Mortgage, he’s finished T21 (2020), T12 (2021) and T17 (2022) with a scoring average of 68.58. Only one of those rounds was higher than 70. Lest we forget that he prevailed at PGA National just four months ago and he’s been a fixture in the Designated events. He’s also now rested after a week off.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, June 28, at 5:00 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Adam Hadwin (+150 = Top Canadian) … See! He’s fine! After the takedown on the 18th green at Oakdale (where he finished T12), he made the cut at the U.S. Open. He finished 59th, so it could be argued that LACC did more damage than the tackle, ba-dum ching. Now rested a full week, he replaces the idle Corey Conners for shortest among his countrymen for this prop. Taylor Pendrith slots seconds at +200, and he was a co-runner-up in his debut at Detroit GC last year, but the then-PGA TOUR rookie was on a heater at the time, which he is not now.

Taylor Moore (+140 = Miss the Cut) … While he’s 0-for-3 upon arrival, I’m more concerned about him finding form on a track that rewards the opposite of his strengths. He’s a little better than an average ball-striker, but he’s just average in converting chances into par breakers even though he’s a terrific putter on paper. That he finished sixth last year could sway you into a positive direction but his tee-to-green game was on point and he ranked T2 in par-5 scoring. Expecting an encore is unrealistic.

Tom Hoge (+115 = Top 40) … So, we’ve arrived at a moment in time when he’s plus value for what should be a slam dunk of a finish on a track that should reward his ball-striking and scorer’s mentality. However, he’s gone eight consecutive starts on his own ball without a top 40 and he’s 1-for-3 at Detroit with a T64 in 2019. He’s not on the Make/Miss-the-Cut board and he’s in the late-early draw, so throwing a dart for him to be the FRL doesn’t make sense. Scoring projects to be a little higher on Thursday afternoon than it will be in the morning.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

HOLE-IN-ONE IN ROUND 2 (+350 = Yes) ... There have been six aces in the four-year history of the tournament. That includes exactly one in the second round in every edition. It happened at the par-3 fifth hole in 2019 and 2020, and then at the par-3 15th in 2021 and 2022.
PARLAY: Cam Davis, Ludvig Åberg, Brian Harman (+200 = All to Make the Cut)
PARLAY: Chris Kirk, Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun (+240 = All to Make the Cut)
Ludvig Åberg (+150 = Top 20)
Akshay Bhatia (+150 = Top 40)
Joseph Bramlett (+110 = Top 40)
Cody Gribble (+333 = Top 40)
Mark Hubbard (+125 = Top 40)
Aaron Rai (+250 = Top Brit and Irish)
Sepp Straka (+100 = Top 40)
Justin Suh (+120 = Top 40)
Dylan Wu (+150 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Scott Piercy … Ended his stay at TPC River Highlands with just one round in the books – a 2-over 72 – due to a sore back. It abruptly extinguished his consecutive cuts-made streak at three. While modest for sure, it still was his longest such string in over a year. Now 44 years of age and 117th in the FedExCup, his value is on the fringes in deeper full-season formats, but DFSers can sit this one out fresh off the malady that isn’t remedied easily at Detroit GC where he’s 0-for-2.

Dylan Frittelli … If he still has any full-season owners (because he’s 142nd in the FedExCup), they’re holding their breath that he’ll peg it on Thursday. He had withdrawn from both of his last two commitments since calling it quits during his first round of the Memorial with an illness.

NOTABLE WDs

Harris English … This is his first early WD since immediately before he resumed playing just over a year ago following surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right hip, but no worries now. He’s 35th in the FedExCup with four top 10s and another trio of top 15s.

Andrew Putnam … At 36th in the FedExCup, he’s in great shape to generate a comfortable schedule into the Playoffs.

Patrick Rodgers … Since a 5th-T19-T10 blitz in April, he’s gone six starts without a top 25, so even though he’s 3-for-3 (and without a top 40 at Detroit GC), DFSers won’t miss him and his longer-term investors probably don’t mind him taking a break. Addition by subtraction and all that.

Hayden Buckley … Alerted his followers on Twitter that he’s out indefinitely due to a torn muscle near his ribs. At 42nd in the FedExCup, he’s a virtual lock to retain position inside the top 125 at the conclusion of the fall – should he require all of that time to heal – but he still could sneak into the Playoffs. Only eight tournaments remain before the field of 70 is set.

RECAP – Travelers Championship

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Scottie Scheffler = T4
2 Xander Schauffele = T19
3 Viktor Hovland = T29
4 Rory McIlroy = T7
5 Patrick Cantlay = T4
6 Jon Rahm = MC
7 Tommy Fleetwood = MC
8 Tom Kim = T38
9 Collin Morikawa = MC
10 Rickie Fowler = T13
11 Russell Henley = T19
12 Harris English = T60
13 Sahith Theegala = T52
14 Brian Harman = T2
15 Adam Scott = T19

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
*Ludvig Åberg (+150 = Top 40) = T24
Lee Hodges (+160 = Top 40) = MC
Mark Hubbard (+150 = Top 40) = MC
Brandon Wu (+200 = Top 40) = MC
Carl Yuan (+333 = Top 40) = MC

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
Wild Card: Justin Thomas (+140 = Miss the Cut) = T9
Also Starring: Wyndham Clark (+170 = Miss the Cut) = T29
*Also Starring: Max Homa (+170 = Miss the Cut) = MC
Also Starring: Tony Finau (-190 = Top 40) = T45
Also Starring: Jason Day (+170 = Miss the Cut) = T45
Tap-in: PARLAY: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim (+188 = All to Make the Cut) = T13/T29/MC
*Ludvig Åberg (-120 = Top Swedish) = T24
Sam Bennett (+200 = Top 40) = MC
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+100 = Top South African) = MC
*Corey Conners (+110 = Top Canadian) = T9
Charley Hoffman (+300 = Top 40) = MC
Viktor Hovland (-200 = Top Scandinavian) = T29
Ryan Moore (+350 = Top 40) = MC
*Chez Reavie (+225 = Top 40) = T4
Adam Scott (+300 = Top Australian) = T19
Michael Thorbjornsen (+260 = Top 40) = MC
Dylan Wu (+250 = Top 40) = MC
Returning: Webb Simpson (+150 = Top 40) = T52

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