FRL: For a third straight week, could 63 fall short of FRL honors?

'Tis the season for a birdie-fest, it appears. Keegan Bradley torched TPC River Highlands last week with a score of 23 under, beating the winning score proposition line by nearly six shots. This week the PGA TOUR arrives in the Motor City for the fifth edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where the winning score, on average, has been 23 under. Next week is the John Deere Classic, where the average winning score over the last 13 seasons has been better than 21 under. Players had better carry a hot putter and be able to draw a lot of circles on a scorecard these days, as it looks to be the only way to keep up.

One very important element here is the weather. There was consistent moisture in the air last week in Connecticut. Thankfully, it never interrupted play, but it did keep the golf course very soft and vulnerable to low scoring. It looks like more of the same this week in Detroit, where storms have been the story leading up to the tournament. Scattered thundershowers remain in the forecast for the weekend as well. Yet, not one of the four days is expecting wind greater than 10 mph. The table appears to be set for some low scoring once again. This week's winning score proposition line is 263.5, which equates to 24.5-under par. Will they get to 25? Defending champion, Tony Finau threw out 30 under as a potential score at his press conference on Tuesday.

We saw Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler shoot 62 in the opening round of the U.S. Open two weeks ago. Denny McCarthy set the pace last week with a 10-under 60 on Thursday which Fowler matched on the weekend. This week's venue, Detroit Golf Club, has proven to be one of the easier golf courses on the TOUR schedule. It is a par 72, Donald Ross design, measuring just under 7,400 yards. The fairways are flat, tree-lined, and wide with the rough not especially penal. For our First Round Leader purposes, we'd take an opening-round 63 in almost any week, any season, any time. I'm not so sure it will be enough on Thursday in Detroit.

Often my handicap will fluctuate week to week in trying to pick a First Round Leader, but more often than not the two areas in which we see First Round Leaders thrive are Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting. I believe that will be especially true this week.

The majority of the approach shots this week will come from 75-150 yards out, so we are looking for players that can dial in the wedges and short irons and make a few putts. Gauging putting is the hard part as this can be such a fickle skill set. Anyone can get hot for 18 holes and at the same time, the best putters can also go ice-cold for a round or two. I have three players I am taking a shot with this week and I've gone with players all teeing off in the early wave. This is where a healthy majority of those finding their way to the upper tier of opening-round leaderboards have come from at Rocket Mortgage Classics over the past four seasons. If you handed me an opening-round 63 for any of them, would I take it? Or do we get greedy, gamble, and figure we need to go lower? Let's put it this way, I'd take a 62.

Stephan Jaeger (+5500 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Jaeger finished fifth at the Rocket Mortgage last year, opening with a 67 as well as shooting a 65 on Saturday. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 36th in this field for SG: Approach, 17th in Birdies or Better Gained, and 29th for Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards. He is also 37th on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance. The putter is where we will need some help but he's been hot in the past in the opening round. Since January, Jaeger has opened with five rounds that have gained three or more strokes on the field and twice gaining five or more strokes.

Chris Kirk (+5500)

Kirk has cooled off a bit as of late, missing the cut in his last three starts. But he has fared well here in the past with finishes of 17th, 12th, and 21st. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 38th in this field for SG Approach, 48th in Birdies or Better Gained, and 29th for SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass). What I love though is his short-iron and wedge play, where he is second in Hole Proximity from 75-100 yards, third from 100-125, and No. 1 from 125-150 yards out. In his three trips to the Detroit Golf Club, he's never opened with a round worse than 68, and on five occasions this year, he's opened with a round that gained three or more strokes on the field, three times gaining five or more strokes.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6600)

The South African does not have the greatest history of getting off to a quick start, but I can't ignore his approach and putting numbers. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks fifth in this field for SG: Approach and seventh for SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass). In Hole Proximity from 75-150 yards, he ranks in the top 20% of the field. Last season, Bezuidenhout did open with a 66 at the Wyndham Championship where Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design. The putting should be in our favor here and he does rank 38th on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance.

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