First Round Leader: Trio of TOUR winners trend towards hot start at Travelers

We got one! After a handful of near misses, we correctly landed on Rickie Fowler last week to get off to a hot start at the U.S. Open. Fowler split First Round Leader honors with Xander Schauffele after each opened in Los Angeles with a round of 62.

We often try to play "weatherman” when handicapping the First Round Leader market but there was no such challenge last week with ideal conditions in Southern California. It shapes as a different story this week as the TOUR travels back east for the Traveler's Championship in Cromwell, Connecticut where the forecast is calling for rain and thundershowers for about the next 10 days.

It looks as if we will get a clean run of golf for Thursday's opening round with very little, if any, interruption but it also appears that there will be enough moisture in the area to make TPC River Highlands a soft and getable track. Birdies or Better Gained is a statistic I looked at in my overall handicap this week. It will be a necessity when trying to nail down a First Round Leader if it turns out that many players are going low out of the gate.

While birdies are certainly going to be an area of focus, I am also going to put some emphasis on Par 4 Scoring. TPC River Highlands is a Par 70, measuring just over 6,800-yards, so gaining on the field on the 12 Par 4s, (67% of the course), is going to be a must. As always, putting, avoiding bogeys, first round scoring average, and approach play will be high on our list of important skill sets in trying to find another First Round Leader.

Corey Conners (+6600)

Coming off of a major championship can be a tricky handicap. Corey Conners missed the cut last week and I am OK with that. Let's not forget, it was the week prior when he played in his nation's open in Canada. Those two weeks in a row can be a lot and I like that he now has had a couple days of extra rest coming into the Travelers. He feels like a very good fit to me for this golf course. Very efficient off the tee, stellar with the irons, on approach, and in hole Proximity. It is always the question of the short game. The good news is, in this case, we only need it to be hot for one day. Three times this year, Conners has played an opening round that gained five or more strokes on the field. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 19th in this field for Birdies or Better Gained.

Emiliano Grillo (+15000)

Grillo is of a similar mold as Conners. Wonderful ball striker, very efficient off the tee - but the short game can be a weakness. Like Conners, Grillo also has a couple of extra days off after also missing the cut last week in Los Angeles. Honestly, I like the timing of it as that missed cut in a major came just two weeks after his win in a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge. That post-win lull has now probably worn off and the good form could rebound here. Grillo matches up very well on the correlated courses I looked at this week and also over the last 36 rounds, ranks 23rd in this field for SG Approach, 35th for Birdies or Better Gained, and 11th in hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. Since The Masters, Grillo has had three opening rounds in which he gained three or more strokes on the field.

Taylor Moore (+15000)

We round out the three-ball with yet another winner on TOUR this season. Moore won the Valspar Championship by ranking third in the field for SG: Off the Tee, fifth in SG: Approach, and 10th in SG: Putting. We'd love him to spike in all three of those categories once again here on Thursday. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 23rd in this field for SG: Putting on bentgrass/poa annua greens. He is third in this field for SG: Total on the correlated courses I used and is 36th for Birdies or Better Gained and 10th in SG Par 4s measuring between 400-450 yards. Back in May, Moore opened with a 66 in another elevated event, the Wells Fargo Championship, which was just one shot back of the first-round lead. Prior to that, he opened with a 64 in the team event, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. I believe he is more than capable of getting off to a hot start, more so than his price of +15000 would indicate.