‘He’s one or two good putting days away’: Oddsmakers brace for U.S. Open surge from Scottie Scheffler

LOS ANGELES – A phenomenal stretch of ball-striking has seen oddsmakers install world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as the clear betting favorite for the U.S. Open this week at Los Angeles Country Club.

While Jon Rahm has four wins this year including the Masters and leads the FedExCup, it is Scheffler’s consistency that has oddsmakers paying close attention.

Scheffler has two wins this season (WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS) but has finished inside the top 12 in his last 15 TOUR starts. His last four starts are all inside the top five.

And this sees the Texan running as the consensus betting favorite in the +650/+700 range as tournament week begins despite the fact that his recent woes on the putting greens have been diabolically costly.

Scheffler has been sensational from tee to green, leading the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at +2.775, significantly better than the next best (Rahm at +1.847). But he’s been unable to capitalize fully on the greens, ranking a dismal 148th in SG: Putting.

It’s been most prevalent at his previous two starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge (-1.141) and the Memorial Tournament (-2.129) where he missed playoffs by one shot despite ranking last on the greens of those who made the 36-hole cuts.

“Scheffler’s tee to green game has been far ahead of anyone else recently, and the feeling is he’s one or two good putting days away from putting it all together and obliterating the field,” said Kevin Lawler, head of trading at PointsBet.

“He’s also more consistent than Rahm, and what happened to Rahm at the PGA Championship is just not something you’d expect to happen to Scheffler, particularly in a major. Scheffler’s last five starts have been T11, T5, T2, T3, 3. His consistency sees him rightly top of the bill across the betting boards.”

The 26-year-old Scheffler is lining up in his sixth U.S. Open having finished T7 two years ago at Torrey Pines and runner-up at The Country Club to Matt Fitzpatrick last year.

Rahm’s four starts post his Masters victory have included a T15 at the RBC Heritage and runner up at the Mexico Open at Vidanta before a surprising T50 at the PGA Championship and T16 at the Memorial Tournament.

This has seen him slot in as the second favorite in the +900/+1100 range in his eighth U.S. Open, having won it in 2021 a few hours down the freeway at Torrey Pines.

Recent PGA champion Brooks Koepka – now a five-time major winner and two-time U.S. Open winner – is joined by Rory McIlroy on the third line of betting. Koepka is set for his 10th U.S. Open with wins in 2017 and 2018 plus further top five finishes in 2014, 2019 and 2021.

Understandably he has been the biggest price mover since markets opened coming in from as high as +6600 into the +1100 range.

McIlroy’s form continues to be baffling to many. Having started the year as the betting favorite in all four major championships the three-time FedExCup champion has failed to collect a trophy since his season opening win at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina last October.

Despite entering his 15th U.S. Open on the back of three TOUR top 10s his inability to close at the PGA Championship, Memorial Tournament and RBC Canadian Open when in position to do so brings cause for trepidation.

McIlroy opened his major championship winning account at the 2011 U.S. Open and since a T9 in 2019 has finished inside the top 10 four years running (T8-T7-T5).

The remaining two players in the teens for betting odds are local Californian Patrick Cantlay and recent Memorial Tournament winner Viktor Hovland. Cantlay played college golf nearby at UCLA and is one of only a handful of players with some knowledge of Los Angeles Country Club.

“It’s tough with an unknown host course. However, since it’s a U.S. Open and the course will purposely be made for tough conditions; slick greens and long, thick rough, we are looking for players who have ultimately thrived on these tough courses in the past,” shared a spokesperson from BetMGM Sportsbook, where Cantlay and Hovland are both priced at +1600.

“There’s a premium on guys who can keep it straight and get up and down from tough positions,” added Lawler.

The local knowledge factor helps see Max Homa, who grew up nearby, sitting in the +2800 range despite having zero top 10s from 15 major starts. Homa has six PGA TOUR wins, four of them coming in California, including two this season.

“A U.S. Open is generally a tight affair, and guys who have course knowledge or even local support can have a significant advantage; how to play key holes, where to lay up, what greens behave in which way, and so on,” Lawler said. “There’s only so much a player can learn in two or three practice rounds, compared to guys who have played that course maybe 100 times or more.”

A rush of bets on Homa during his early season success has him as one of the biggest liabilities at both BetMGM and PointsBet at this stage.

Other players at longer odds attracting early attention include six-time U.S. Open runner-up Phil Mickelson (+15000) and Rickie Fowler (+6600) – another pair of Californians.

“Fowler goes around a loser for us every time he plays. Bettors have taken a big liking to him whether he is in form or not,” shared a BetMGM spokesperson.

“Tom Kim (+9000), Kurt Kitayama (+20000), Bryson DeChambeau (+5000) and Denny McCarthy (+12500) are all liabilities at PointsBet,” added Lawler.

While the outright market has already seen some significant action, Lawler expects a rush on live betting when play begins Thursday as bettors get a sense for how the USGA has set up LACC.

“By the time players tee off, the market is efficient enough to assume all variables are known and equated for. Early business is particularly interesting for tournaments like this where we are always trying to listen to the market and get the prices accurate for every player,” Lawler explained. “On a new course like this, with many unknowns, (in-play markets) are among the most interesting to price and for our clients to bet on.”

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