Time Warp: Finding the modern-day Jason Dufner

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – It wasn’t meant to go that way.

It was almost a decade ago when we were at Oak Hill in the midst of an incredible 2013 on the PGA TOUR ahead of the PGA Championship and everything pointed towards Tiger Woods finally breaking a five-year major drought.

Woods had just won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone in Akron for an incredible eighth time to notch his fifth TOUR win of the season. He blitzed the star-studded field and even threatened to shoot 59 in the second round.

He had dominated the season to that point but while he’d won THE PLAYERS Championship in May of that year he hadn’t broken his major drought dating back to the 2008 U.S. Open. It was the only thing missing in a major season that saw Australia claim its first-ever Masters title via Adam Scott, Justin Rose pick up a well-earned U.S. Open and Phil Mickelson surprise all but himself on his way to an Open Championship win.

The script was written for Woods who was a +400 favorite entering the week… until it wasn’t.

Instead, it was the relentless ball-striking of a somewhat uncouth looking, but incredibly talented Jason Dufner, who would ultimately be the champion at Oak Hill.

The upstate New York venue didn’t yield to the long bombers. Or to the big names. Nope… it was Dufner, a 30-to-1 shot, and the likes of Jim Furyk, Henrik Stenson and Scott using their accuracy

to tame the beast.

This got me thinking ahead of this year’s version of the PGA Championship as we see some parallels appearing.

Now – a huge caveat here – you need to be aware we are not only playing in May this time around instead of August but also the course has undergone some significant work since a decade ago.

Trees have been removed. Length has been added. The bunkers and greens have all been redone… But I still can’t shake some deja vu feelings.

We don’t have Woods – he is home recovering from injury – but we do have two very dominant figures at the top of the betting boards in world Nos. 1 and 2, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler.

They are +800 and +750, respectively, with BetMGM Sportsbook.

Odds to win PGA Championship (via BetMGM)

+750: Scottie Scheffler

+800: Jon Rahm

+1400: Rory McIlroy

+1600: Xander Schauffele

+1800: Patrick Cantlay

+2200: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau

+2500: Dustin Johnson

+2800: Jason Day

+3000: Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland

Most experts are expecting a showdown between the pair. The last two Masters winners. The dominant forces in the game right now. But Oak Hill shunned the norm last time out, and I have a sneaky feeling it might do so again.

With that in mind, I want to look at the type of golf Dufner was playing back in 2013. He was no slouch, having already moved his way to 21st in the world rankings. Leading into the PGA Championship here were some of his key stats.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: Rank 15th

Strokes Gained: Approach: Rank 21st

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: Rank 16th

Strokes Gained: Around the Green: Rank 126th

Strokes Gained: Putting: Rank 163rd

Strokes Gained: Total: Rank 43rd

Driving Distance: Rank 111rd

Driving Accuracy: Rank 39th

GIR: Rank 30th

Scoring Average: 20th

The gist is Dufner was accurate off the tee, and middle of the pack in distance. His iron play was stellar leaving his weakness on and around the greens. Despite some issues chipping and putting, Dufner knew how to go low consistently.

OUTRIGHTS

Which brings me to my picks. Fast forward to this season and my favorite outright pick is incredibly sitting at… you guessed it… 30 to 1. Coming off a win in his home country last week, Sungjae Im(+3000 to win) brings a lot of similarities to Dufner of a decade ago.

He ranks 12th in SG: Off the Tee; 14th in SG: Tee to Green; 10th in SG: Total. In Driving distance, he sits 105th but driving accuracy sits in 20th. And while his GIR (45th) and SG: Approach (60th) are down a little from last season… he’s a proven iron player. Im is also ninth on TOUR in scoring average.

Now at this point, it would be remiss of me not to point out another player who pings in almost all the stats Dufner was excelling at in 2013: Scottie Scheffler (+750 to win).

His season already boasts wins at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS but his consistency even when not winning is almost unbelievable. After a T5 last week he has 12 straight top 12 finishes on TOUR.

Scheffler sits first in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green and GIR. He’s second in scoring average and SG: Total, sixth in SG: Approach and he’s 22nd in driving accuracy while being 25th in driving distance! In other words, he’s favored for a reason. To leave him out of consideration would be risky. But with a short starting number, you can take the decision to ignore him through the opening round, spread your love a little elsewhere, but leave some in reserve to jump on Scheffler if he starts well, albeit at likely even shorter odds.

Lastly, I can’t go past giving a shout-out to Jason Day (+2800) following his victory at the AT&T Byron Nelson. It will be tough to go back-to-back having waited five years between his last two wins, but the Aussie has won two in a row before and is now brimming in confidence.

A former PGA champion from 2015, Day is fifth in scoring average, 17th in GIR, seventh in SG: Total, 11th in SG: Putting, 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in SG: Approach, 29th in SG: Off the Tee and 30th in SG: Around the Green. Day was also T8 at Oak Hill in 2013.

TOP 5

Si Woo Kim (+8000 to win, +1100 for Top 5)

I might be falling victim to some recency bias here, but watching Kim push his way to a runner-up result last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson just solidified my initial thoughts on the South Korean.

Kim already has a win this season at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and, in a departure from the old version, he’s playing fairly consistent golf! With only two missed cuts this season, gone are the days of rocks or diamonds Si Woo.

Kim ranks 14th in driving accuracy, 25th in scoring average, 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 25th in SG: Approach. He’s 23rd in SG: Total. As a former PLAYERS winner, he isn’t afraid of the big stage.

TOP 10

Adam Scott (+6600 to win, +450 for Top 10)

Call me a homer but show me a person with a better golf swing right now. It’s hard to find one. With a T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a T8 last week in Dallas the veteran Aussie looks set to replicate his efforts from 2013 when he was T5.

To buy into my thinking you, have to suspend the season-long data on this one as Scott ranks poorly in SG: Approach, GIR and driving accuracy. But at Quail Hollow Scott was 32nd SG: Off the Tee, 15th SG: Tee to Green, 15th SG: Approach and ninth SG: Putting. At TPC Craig Ranch Scott was third in SG: Putting and a respectable 54th in SG: Approach while leading the field in birdies.

TOP 20

Tyrrell Hatton (+4000 to win, +138 for Top 20)

Another man playing well recently is the Englishman Hatton. T3 at Wells Fargo and T5 at Byron Nelson the last two starts. Runner up at THE PLAYERS and further top 10s at Designated WM Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Hatton is fifth in SG: Total; sixth SG: Tee to Green; sixth in scoring average; eighth SG: Off the Tee; 13th in SG Approach, 25th in SG: Putting and 32nd in Driving Accuracy.

TOP 40

Rickie Fowler (+6500 to win, -125 for Top 40)

One of the real sneaky success stories of this season Fowler has now put up nine straight top 40s, the last five all top 20s. He also comes up in a few of the “Dufner” stats ahead of this week.

Fowler is seventh in SG: Approach, 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in SG: Total. The former prodigy is also eighth in scoring average and 31st in GIR.

LONGSHOT

Corey Conners (+9000 to win)

Not far removed from his win at the Valero Texas Open the Canadian’s last start was a T8 at Quail Hollow.

Ranks 20th in SG: Off the Tee; 17th in SG: Tee to Green; 15th in SG: Approach, 10th in GIR and 27th in SG: Total.

Stay with us all week at Golfbet where I’m on site to bring you the latest all week from Oak Hill. Good luck with all your picks!

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