Odds Outlook: Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler co-favorites heading into PGA Championship at Oak Hill

Oak Hill Country Club's East Course will be hosting the PGA Championship for the fourth time, and first since 2013. Playing to par 70 at tipping out at 7,394 yards, the Donald Ross classic in Rochester, New York will determine the second major champion of the year.

And topping the odds board heading into tournament week are the winners of the two biggest events played thus far in 2023.

Masters champion Jon Rahm (+750) shares top billing this week according to BetMGM Sportsbook as he looks to secure the first half of the single-season Grand Slam. Additionally, a victory would check three of the four boxes in the career Grand Slam as well. The Spaniard mowed the field down at Augusta National in April, winning by four shots to claim his second career major championship. Last time out he just missed defending his title at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, finishing solo second. Leading the TOUR in SG: Total, he also sits in the top 10 in SG: Tee to Green and SG: Putting. Playing his sixth PGA Championship, T4 in 2018 and T8 in 2021 are his two best paydays.

Scottie Scheffler (+750) and his run of consistent form forces him to the top with Rahm as co-favorites, at least on Monday morning. With T12 or better in his last 12 starts on TOUR, the Texan is in the mix each week. Since his victory at THE PLAYERS, he's rattled off fourth, T10 in defense at Augusta National, T11, and T5 last week. Only Rahm has gained more strokes (total), but Scheffler tops the charts in SG: Tee to Green. SG: Off the Tee and GIR. Making his debut at the 2020 PGA Championship, he cashed T4. He pocketed T8 money in 2021 before oddly an MC last year at Southern Hills, one of his favorite tracks.

Rory McIlroy (+1200) is the only player of the top three choices who has won this event previously. Victories on Kiawah Island, by a record eight shots in 2012, plus two years later at Valhalla in Louisville, etched his name on the Wanamaker Trophy again. The victory in 2014 was his last major championship of four total in his career. After an MC at THE PLAYERS and Masters, many thought he would turn it around at his old stomping ground at Quail Hollow Club. Signing for T47 in Charlotte brought cause for more concern as the days of solo second at Bay Hill and third place at WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play faded away. The 34-year-old leads the TOUR in Driving Distance and resides in the top 15 for most Strokes-Gained categories minus putting. He's 172nd with the flat stick.

Brooks Koepka (+2000) sharing second at the Masters reminded those not paying close enough attention that he's still a factor in major championship golf. Koepka joined Tiger Woods (not entered) in 2018 as the only two to defend the PGA Championship in the stroke-play format. With four major championships on his resume, it's easy to see why he has opened at this number.

Xander Schauffele (+2000) has done everything but lift the trophy this season. His last four outings have produced solo second, fourth, T10, and T5. Form isn't what is in question. Major championship golf has produced very similar results for the San Diego native. From 20 cuts made from 23 events played, he's hit the top 10 in 10 tries. Last year was the first time he didn't pocket a top-10 payday in a major (MC- T13-T14-T15). The streak ended with T10 at the Masters in April. Since an MC at the 2022 Masters, he's rattled off 24 straight paydays, the best on TOUR.

Since missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open, Patrick Cantlay (+2000) turned up the heat and rattled off seven consecutive top-25 finishes. Of those seven, four registered in the top 10, including top-four productions at the challenging layouts of Riviera CC and Bay Hill. Major championships have not produced as much fruit from his labors. In 24 events, 20 times he's gone home with a check. In his last 14 majors, T8 at The Open Championship last summer is his only top 10. Of those 20 paydays, just three have been for top-10s. Sits second on TOUR in Total Driving, eighth GIR, and 18th SG: Putting. Balanced.

Reigning champion and two-time winner Justin Thomas (+2200) will look to join Woods and Koepka in the PGA Championship penthouse with another win this week. His last outing saw him cash T14 at Quail Hollow Club, the site of his first major victory and first PGA Championship in 2017. Last year he knocked out Will Zalatoris (not entered, injured) in a three-hole aggregate playoff at Southern Hills to join the multiple winners club. This week he'll look to separate himself from the two-time winners of McIlroy, Koepka, and Phil Mickelson.

Tony Finau (+2500) outdueled Rahm in Mexico three weeks ago for his second win of the season. With 10 top-10 paydays from 23 weekends in major championships, the next order of business for the big hitter is to add his name to the list of winners. His last top 10 in a major was T8 at the 2021 PGA Championship. Oddly, his last seven starts in major championships have not produced a finish inside the top 14. Two-time major champ Dustin Johnson joins Finau at +2500 odds.

Jason Day (+2800) will attempt to become the first player since McIlroy in 2014 (WGC-BI, PGA Championship) to win a major the week after winning an event. Day, the 2015 winner at Whistling Straits on 20-under 268, appears to have put his recent struggles with vertigo in the background. Last week he closed with 62 to post 23-under and claim his first victory since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Day has won in back-to-back starts twice in his career. The first time he followed his 2015 PGA Championship by winning the first event of the FedExCup. In 2016 he backed up his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard by winning the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

Here's a look at some of the other notable pre-tournament outright odds, via BetMGM, as all eyes turn to Upstate New York this week and a classic layout:

+2800: Cameron Smith

+3000: Cameron Young, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im

+3300: Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa

+3500: Jordan Spieth

+4000: Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton

+5000: Hideki Matsuyama

+5500: Tommy Fleetwood

+6600: Joaquin Niemann, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Sahith Theegala, Talor Gooch, Tom Kim and Wyndham Clark

+8000: Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim

+9000: Bryson DeChambeau

+10000: Gary Woodland, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry

+12500: Denny McCarthy, Mito Pereira, Taylor Moore

How it works:

Field of 156 players.

99 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (Will Zalatoris, injured) are entered.

The field includes the Senior PGA Champion (Steven Alker) and 20 PGA Professionals, but no amateurs.

The top 70 and ties will play the final two rounds.

A three-hole aggregate playoff will decide the winner. If there is no winner after three holes, the format changes to sudden death.

On the line is a prize pool of $15 million (2022 payout) with the winner receiving $2.7 million (2022 payout) plus 600 FedExCup Points.

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