Scheffler too short in shootout

There are many reasons why Scottie Scheffler is the hot +333 favorite to win the AT&T Bryon Nelson with BetMGM but the reasons he might not are the ones bettors should focus on ahead of play at TPC Craig Ranch.

The pro-Scheffler list is long.

- Highest ranked player in the field at 2nd in the OWGR

- 1st on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

- 3rd on TOUR in Total Driving

- 6th on TOUR in SG: Approach

- 2nd on TOUR in SG: Total

- 1st on TOUR in GIR

- 2nd on TOUR in scoring average

- 5th on TOUR in birdie average and Par Breakers

- 1st on TOUR Par 4 Scoring

- 4th on TOUR in 3-putt Avoidance

- He’s a Texan playing in Texas…

The truth is I could have added another 10 or so solid bullet points above. But for all the good, there are a few points, some statistical, some intangible, a sharp bettor must keep in mind this week.

For starters, it’s the week before the PGA Championship, and much like we warned you during the Valero Texas Open prior to the Masters, one must take into consideration the mindset of those who know they’ll be in Rochester, NY the following week.

It is easy for top players to be slightly distracted in tune-up events and the margins are thin on the PGA TOUR, especially if you need to push towards 25 under to win.

Scheffler’s B game is legitimately good enough to win on TOUR, but it only takes one player to get hot with the putter to explode ahead and create scoreboard pressure.

Which leads us to the Scheffler con list.

- 99th in SG Putting (0.000 right on TOUR average)

- 145th in One-Putt percentage

- 129th in Putting Inside 10 feet

- 120th in Putting from 15-20 feet

- 139th in Putting 20-25 feet

- 194th in sand save percentage

- 156th in missing left off the tee

- 119th in proximity from the left rough

- 169th in proximity from 200+ yards

- 193rd in scrambling from 30+ yards

- 103rd in scrambling inside 10 yards

- He hasn’t played since RBC Heritage

To win this week you’ll need to make putts. And lots of them.

The last two versions of the AT&T Byron Nelson have gone to Korean K.H. Lee who was +15000 in 2021 and still +8000 to win as the defending champion last year. He ranked ninth in the 2021 event in SG: Putting and 13th last year as he shot 25 and 26 under totals.

Since gaining 1.039 strokes per round putting in his win at the WM Phoenix Open Scheffler’s putting has slipped, losing strokes at Bay Hill, Augusta National and Hilton Head. Even his PLAYERS win saw him at just +0.027 per round on the greens.

That victory at TPC Sawgrass proves he can win without being amazing on the greens, the question is do you expect Scheffler to get really deep if he’s not?

There are 83 bunkers on the property and we know from Scheffler’s ball striking he usually stays out of them. But if he does find them, this could cause major issues. A bogey in a shootout week can be a near-death sentence.

And while Scheffler’s overall scrambling has been fine, from the aforementioned distances he’s been less than stellar. To bet on a +333 shot with 72 holes yet to play… you want some confidence that stellar play is going to be everywhere.

So, if we are NOT advocating for Scheffler this week… just who am I thinking is up for a big week in Texas?

OUTRIGHT

Tom Hoge (+5000 to win)

Hoge, a former winner of the other AT&T event at Pebble Beach, is a ball-striking savant these days and is warming up to contention for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. He certainly reminds me of how the 2013 PGA champion Jason Dufner was playing at the time. Hoge is third on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth in Birdie or Better percentage. (10th in Birdie or Better: Putting). He is a respectable 48th in SG: Putting. He is also 15th in GIR and eighth in Par Breakers. Has four top 10s this season, two of which were third-place finishes.

Adam Scott (+3300 to win)

Almost came through for us as a +10000 longshot last week at Quail Hollow so we will keep the faith in the Aussie as he ranks fifth in birdies or better from 200+ yards and is 3rd in relation to par on approach from 50-75 yards. Both distances should be a key factor this week. Caution: Like Scheffler though, he will need to make more putts than he has been.

TOP 5

Tom Kim (+1400 to win, +300 Top 5)

After an average stretch of golf in February and March there is optimism that Kim is once again building back up to the form that saw him win the Shriners Children’s Open and finish in the top six at both the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. Kim is 15th in SG: Approach and ranks 14th in Birdie or Better percentage for shots greater than 200 yards, a distance used above the average this week.

TOP 10

K.H. Lee (+2200 to win, +220 Top 10)

While a three-peat will be a tough ask purely from a historical perspective you have to love what Lee has done at TPC Craig Ranch in his two starts for two wins. Clearly at home on the surface, Lee is also ranked 10th in Birdie or Better percentage from outside 200 yards.

TOP 20

Seamus Power (+125 for Top 20)

If nothing else just look at Power’s two trips to TPC Craig Ranch. He’s been T9 and T17 and he ranks 24th on TOUR in Birdie or Better percentage as this showdown looms. Power is not only a top-20 play, but a contender to finish much higher up the boards.

Good luck!

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