Golfbet Insider: Wells Fargo Championship

If you were in the minority that didn’t roster Tony Finau and/or Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, then you’re probably still licking wounds. Heck, I had both rostered in every round and I still lost a little ground on the overall lead in the PGA TOUR Experts league. The outcome of the tournament fulfilled our highest expectations and the other contributors provided the difference. However, we still have a ways to go to crown champions, and the remainder of Segment 3 presents tasty possibilities, so let’s turn the page together.

In “DNPs” below are seven golfers not committed to this week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Each is among the 23 Player Impact Program performers who entered 2023 with the hope that they’d miss no more than one of the Designated events for which they are eligible and able to play. The Wells Fargo is the eighth in the series (and ninth overall when including the Masters).

The TOUR’s plan served as a handy roadmap for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers who are smart to strategize when and where to burn whom. While DNPs can be frustrating, we knew from the jump that they were baked into the provision and the arrangement has served as insurance at a lower premium in the context of guesswork. It’s been a compelling wrinkle both in the mainstream and in our world.

The next five tournaments serve as the conclusion of Segment 3, including the Wells Fargo. The PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday also are Designated events. While there always are expectations for all eligible for the major to compete, the same doesn’t happen at Muirfield Village. Usually.

This year, we can count on many of the PIP performers to appear even if it’s been a traditional place to play. As it concerns this subset of popular picks, consider ranking the PGA third among these three tournaments at which to burn a start. With the Masters and RBC Heritage having already exhausted some of your ammo, and with numerous non-members promising to be teeing it up at Oak Hill for the PGA in two weeks, blend in with what you have left adroitly. No two lineups among league contenders likely will be the same, and it takes only one well-played ration to make a big difference.

It’s worth tagging this approach with the reminder that this is the only season for which mandatory participation in the Designated events applies. We’ll revert to our former familiar experience when that sanction will be lifted in 2024.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Justin Thomas (-225 = Top 40) … It’s absurd to expect him to sustain the kind of precision on approach that he exhibited last season when he ranked first, second or third in six different ranges from 50-175 yards, but he talked (read: lamented) about the regression at the Masters and promptly missed the cut. That’s a small sample size that makes it impossible to ignore the aggregate as it also fortifies his recent trending to some degree. No one ever can take away his victory in the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, and he’s returned thrice since, including with a 4-1-0 record at the Presidents Cup last year, but he’s challenged by enough inconsistency to be omitted from the Power Rankings proper. Yet, his B-game should be enough – easily – to convert on this prop. Multiple the units.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, May 3, at 6:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Sungjae Im (+105 = Top 20) … If JT wasn’t occupying the spot reserved for the Wild Card above, Im would be the classic extension of the Power Rankings, so getting even a shred of plus value for this finish is a delight. He does it all and he’s been in a serious groove for nine months running. While he’s a two-time winner on the PGA TOUR, it’d surprise no one if he went on the kind of tear that former and infamous one-time winner Tony Finau has been on. Im still is in just his fifth season and he only recently turned 25, so his stock will continue to rise. No stranger to Quail Hollow with a payday in the 2019 Wells Fargo and a 2-2-1 record in a losing cause at the 2022 Presidents Cup, so that experience feeds his form.

Tommy Fleetwood (-135 = Top 40) … The Englishman often presents as an easy send for a top 20 (at +175 this week) but he’s connected for only three of those in nine stroke-play starts worldwide in 2023. So, wait until he’s on a heater to take that plunge. His value will drop only incrementally when it happens. However, if you can’t resist the risk, he finished T14 in his last trip to Quail Hollow in 2021 despite putting pressure on his short game. But that’s also in bold face on the back of his trading card; that is, he’s gritty and his skill set plays up when par is a good score.

Emiliano Grillo (+300 = Top 20) … When he surges, do not hesitate, especially for this kickback. After months of scuffling, he connected top 10s at Harbour Town (T7) and Vidanta (T5) thanks to his latest reunion with capable putting. He’s also 2-for-2 at Quail Hollow with a T9 in 2018 and a T14 in 2021.

Si Woo Kim (+100 = Top 40) … Tom Kim was the darling for the Internationals at the Presidents Cup but it was Si Woo Kim who led the squad with a 3-1-0 record. He’s been on cruise control since. In 2023 alone, he’s hung up eight top 40s in individual stroke-play competitions. The risk built into the investment isn’t attached to the potential as much as it is his health, but he hasn’t withdrawn during a tournament all season. Holding breath…

Joel Dahmen (+140 = Top 40) … His 3-for-3 record at Quail Hollow is comprised of a T16 (2018), a second (2019) and a T18 (2021), so he should have been an automatic Sleeper, but he’s struggled throughout 2023 and Quail Hollow isn’t the kind of exam that anyone can ace without some bit of momentum, which he doesn’t have. Zero top 40s among five paydays in eight individual competitions upon arrival, but without a market on him to make/miss the cut, at least flip a fraction of a unit into this prop on course success alone and if for no other reason to test it.

PARLAY: Tom Kim, Tyrrell Hatton and Sahith Theegala (+170 = All to Make the Cut) … Kim is in the Power Rankings, Hatton has missed only one cut on U.S. soil in a little under 18 months and Theegala has cashed in 15 straight. Thank you, BetMGM.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

Byeong Hun An (+138 = Top 40)

Keegan Bradley (+100 = Top 40)

Wyndham Clark (-125 = Top 40)

Corey Conners (+175 = Top Canadian)

Brian Harman (+100 = Top 40)

Viktor Hovland (+110 = Top Continental European)

Shane Lowry (-125 = Top 40)

Andrew Putnam (+188 = Top 40)

Patrick Rodgers (+100 = Top 40)

Sepp Straka (+260 = Top 40)

Justin Suh (+200 = Top 40)

Erik van Rooyen (+240 = Top South African)

Jimmy Walker (+300 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

n/a

DNPs

Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler … Each is taking his one allotted break from the requirement to compete in Designated events. (Previous DNPs are Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Justin Thomas.)

Will Zalatoris … Just a reminder that he’s out for the season after having a microdiscectomy on April 8.

Hideki Matsuyama … Released a statement last Friday sharing that he’s returned home to Japan for treatment on his neck. He had taken his allotted break from the Designated events at the RBC Heritage.

Tiger Woods … Announced on April 19 that he had surgery on his right ankle that day. He remains out indefinitely.

NOTABLE WDs

Brandon Wu … Sunday’s solo third at Vidanta answered his T2 there last year. If only Jon Rahm (Win-2nd) and Tony Finau (T2-Win) didn’t get in his way, Wu could be a PGA TOUR winner by now. The consolation is that he’s now 42nd in the FedExCup and poised for a big summer to continue what’s been a fruitful season thus far.

Ryan Brehm … He’s now withdrawn early from three consecutive tournaments. On April 20, Tony Paul of The Detroit News reported that Brehm is dealing with a triceps injury. Brehm is 175th in the FedExCup but he’s fully exempt through 2024 via his breakthrough victory in Puerto Rico in 2022.

RECAP – Mexico Open at Vidanta

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer = Result

1 Jon Rahm = 2nd

2 Tony Finau = Win

3 Wyndham Clark = T24

4 Patrick Rodgers = T10

5 Ben Martin = T46

6 Nicolai Højgaard = T33

7 Byeong Hun An = T33

8 Beau Hossler = T10

9 Matt Wallace = MC

10 Emiliano Grillo = T5

11 Brandon Wu = 3rd

12 Andrew Putnam = T24

13 David Lipsky = T60

14 Gary Woodland = T39

15 Chez Reavie = T49

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result

*Joseph Bramlett (+188 = Top 20) = T10

Nate Lashley (+300 = Top 20) = T39

Andrew Novak (+350 = Top 20) = T49

Lanto Griffin = T66

Martin Trainer = MC

GOLFBET INSIDER

Team (recommended bet) = Result

Wild Card: Maverick McNealy (+240 = Miss the Cut) = T60

Also Starring: Aaron Rai (+150 = Top 20) = MC

*Also Starring: Erik van Rooyen (+160 = Top 40) = T33

Tap-in: PARLAY: Brandon Wu, Ben Martin and Alex Smalley (+160 = All to Make the Cut) = 3rd/T46/MC

Tap-in: Jonathan Byrd (+300 = Top 40) = T55

Tap-in: MJ Daffue (+100 = Top 40) = MC

*Tap-in: Brice Garnett (+240 = Top 40) = T33

Tap-in: Henrik Norlander (+350 = Top Swedish) = MC

Tap-in: Cameron Percy #1 (+240 = Top 40) = T60

Tap-in: Cameron Percy #2 (+250 = Top Australian) = T60 (Aaron Baddeley & Geoff Ogilvy = T39)

*Tap-in: Alejandro Tosti (+138 = Top 40) = T10

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