The case for fading Jon Rahm in Mexico

It’s time to fade Jon Rahm.

Hear me out! Please read on… I haven’t lost my mind.

Not since Tiger Woods in his prime have we seen a player this short in the betting odds ahead of a PGA TOUR event. But Rahm enters his title defense at the Mexico Open at Vidanta an incredibly short +250 favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook. And it’s that number that we really need to fade.

The reasons for his favoritism are plentiful. He opened at +450 a year ago at Vidanta and won the tournament after sharing the opening round lead. He’s already won four times this season, including his breakthrough Masters win earlier this month. Rahm is world No. 1 with No. 16 Tony Finau (+750) the next highest-ranked player in the field. After Finau, it drops to Alex Noren (+4500) at No. 50 in terms of the OWGR.

The course suits big hitters and Rahm is 22nd on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He leads the TOUR in SG: Total, scoring average (actual), birdie average, par 3 scoring average, and birdie or better percentage. And his 73.12% greens in regulation is the third best on TOUR.

But with all that said… the +250 is a number I can’t in good conscience advise is a smart one to jump on with 72 holes remaining in any TOUR event.

Rahm is clearly the best player in the field but TOUR golf always brings variables. The resort course will face some tricky cross winds at times and can be unpredictable in terms of strength.

Rahm also will have to guard against complacency. He knows he’s the best, but he will still need to work for it.

While Rahm has shown he can win as a heavy favorite, he has also faltered in this position. At the Fortinet Championship in September 2021, Rahm was a +300 favorite, but missed the cut.

At the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year, after his first two wins, Rahm opened +450 and was unable to close despite being in position on Sunday. A final-round 74 left him tied seventh on his favorite venue.

That’s to say nothing of his unfortunate WD with Covid at the Memorial ahead of the final round in 2021. Sometimes unexpected variables happen!

And then there is the weight of history. Can Rahm win to do something not even Woods or Jack Nicklaus were able to do in their storied careers?

The Spaniard is looking to become the earliest player (April 30) to five wins in a season on the PGA TOUR since Johnny Miller’s mark from 1974. Miller collected the fifth of eight wins on April 28 of that season. No one has even been close since Tom Watson grabbed a fifth of seven wins on May 11 back in 1980.

Miller was notorious for some fast starts to a season but they both still sit behind the legend that is Arnold Palmer. Palmer’s fifth win in 1960 came at the Masters on April 10. But they all take a back seat to another icon of the game.

Byron Nelson’s record 18-win season in 1945 saw him reach his fifth on March 19! Perhaps more incredibly, Nelson already had five runner up finishes that season to that point also.

Nelson’s heroics aside - in the modern game, a Rahm win this week, to get to five inside the first four months of the calendar year, would be ultra-impressive.

The 28-year-old picked up his fourth TOUR win of the year earlier this month at The Masters to go with his Sentry Tournament of Champions, American Express and Genesis Invitational titles.

Consider that 82-time winner Woods has had at least five wins in a season 10 times in his career, but the earliest he made it to five was in his epic nine-win effort in 2000, his fifth coming at the U.S. Open on June 18 of that year.

Nicklaus, he had at least five wins seven times in his career. But the earliest to five came on August 12 in his 1973 season.

The most recent TOUR players to get to five wins in a season are Justin Thomas in 2017 and Jason Day and Jordan Spieth, who each won five times in 2015. Thomas won his fifth on September 4, with Day and Spieth hitting their marks in the FedExCup Playoffs on September 20 and 27, respectively.

Prior to that it was Woods in 2013, with his fifth win coming on August 4 of that year.

Rahm’s odds are within range of the numbers tied to Woods in his prime who would often go off at +100 in the dominant 2000s. Via BetMGM Rahm is: +250 to win, -175 for a top-5 finish, -800 for a top-20, -1600 for a top-40 and -2000 to make the cut of top 65 and ties.

For perspective, consider that the Los Angeles Lakers, with LeBron James in the lineup, are +140 underdogs against the Memphis Grizzlies in Wednesday’s NBA Playoff game – a two-horse race.

The price comparison implies that oddsmakers believe a Rahm top-5 out of a 144-player field is significantly more likely than a team with one of the best basketball players to ever lace up finding a win.

I’d advocate looking at Rahm in other markets. He opened with a 64 a year ago, so why not look at the first-round leader option at +900? You can also back any wire-to-wire winner at +1200. At least there you have some “value.” If Rahm starts slow, the +250 should rise after the opening round, giving you a chance to come aboard later.

Instead, look at Finau. At his best, he shouldn’t sit three times the odds of Rahm. Finau was runner-up to Rahm a year ago and has been a proven winner in events where he is one of the alphas.

There will be a lot of approach shots coming from outside 200 yards and when it comes to players on approach this season from over 200 yards in relation to par… guess who leads? Rahm.

Finau though, is eighth on TOUR.

If you stick to the big-hitter theory than others like Gary Woodland (+2500) and Patrick Rodgers (+2800) start to jump off the page. Rodgers is 33rd this season in relation to par from outside 200 yards. I’ve also got a soft spot for Aaron Rai (+4000) who lacks the length of others but brings plenty of accuracy to the table. He’s 43rd on TOUR from outside 200 yards.