Defending champ Jon Rahm a heavy favorite to repeat at Mexico Open at Vidanta

Once Jon Rahm (+240) officially committed to defend his title at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, the only question this week was going to be how big of a favorite he would be at the top of the board.

We have our answer!

The four-time winner this season finally had a week to reflect on his Masters triumph after posting a T15 finish at the RBC Heritage. Celebrations at Silver Leaf, his home club in Scottsdale, are now a pleasant memory. This week, with a title to defend, it's time to get back to business.

Vidanta Vallarta Resort hosted for the first time last season, and the Spaniard jumped right in and opened with 64 to share the first-round lead. Never looking back, he posted three more rounds in the 60s to lead after each round, ultimately winning by a shot. Interestingly enough, he didn't pace the field in one major statistical category. He shared the top spot in Bogey Avoidance (5) with the other two players on the podium.

Tony Finau (+750) tried to run down Rahm last year, as he closed with 63 to miss a playoff by a shot. He’s the closest to Rahm this year in the eyes of BetMGM Sportsbook. The big hitter had no problems covering the par-71 at sea level even though it could stretch to almost 7,500 yards. Last time he was in Mexico he MC at Mayakoba, but he returned to action the following week to win in Houston and hasn't missed a cut since, a streak of 11 events. That streak includes results of T31 or better, but his last two T31 (RBC Heritage) and T26 (Masters) are the worst of the bunch.

The sand and sea nearby, plus having just a handful of top players entered, gives this week a vacation-type feeling. Fading the favorites at the top will point both eyes to Wyndham Clark (+2000). Part of the team who led after 54 holes last week in New Orleans before cashing third, he'll be treating this week as another business trip. In his last eight tournaments he's painted the top 10 in four of them, including a top 10 on Paspalum, the grass used this week, in the Dominican Republic. He hasn't missed a weekend in his last 14 events.

Former U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland (+2800) posted all four rounds at par or better in the debut event last year (T24; 9 under). Opening and closing with 67 probably made the decision easier to return for another try this season. Since the calendar turned in January his only top 10 is T9 at Riviera, hardly a resort course. The strength of his game hinges on his tee-to-green play, and he currently ranks in the top 25 in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach.

TPC San Antonio fit the eye of Patrick Rodgers(+3000) in late March. Leading by three after 36 holes, he settled for solo fifth. Coming off that he heads to Vidanta Vallarta Resort after posting all four rounds at 70 or better, including three in the 60s, last year for solo 10th. He's looking for his first win on TOUR in his 229th event and rolls in off a T19 at RBC Heritage after T5 at Valspar.

If Dane Nicolai Hojgaard (+3300) didn't have much experience on Paspalum grass it didn't show at Corales in March at Puntacana. Making only one bogey in his last 54 holes, he fell by a shot to winner Matt Wallace. The 22-year-old has only teed it up twice since March, placing second at Corales and T28 at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. The 2018 European Amateur champion has two professional wins, the last coming in February of 2022 in the UAE.

Here's a look at some of the other notable opening odds in Mexico, with prices via BetMGM:

+4000: Aaron Rai, Alex Noren, Byeong Hun An, Maverick McNealy

+5000: Beau Hossler, Ben Martin, Emiliano Grillo, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith

+5500: Alex Smalley, Andrew Putnam, Brandon Wu, Robby Shelton, SH Kim

+6600: David Lipsky, Matt Wallace, Will Gordon, Chez Reavie, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard

+8000: Andrew Novak, Dylan Wu, Garrick Higgo, Harry Hall, Nate Lashley, Patton Kizzire

+9000: Charley Hoffman, Joseph Bramlett, Luke List

+10000: Akshay Bhatia, Doug Ghim, Eric Cole, Erik van Rooyen, Francesco Molinari, Henrik Norlander, Kevin Streelman, Michael Kim, Peter Malnati.

Notes:

The return to stroke play welcomes a field of 144. Top 65 and ties will play the final two rounds.

On the line is a prize pool of $7.7 million with the winner receiving $1.386 million plus 500 FedExCup Points.

Circle back tomorrow as I will post Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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