Collin Morikawa highlights FRL selections for the Masters

"The Masters doesn't begin until the back nine on Sunday."

There’s a lot of truth to this statement we've heard over the years, made by our fathers and grandfathers when reminiscing about the mystique and the thrill of what is the Masters Tournament. In today's world of legalized sports betting, the tournament is truly going on constantly, universally, and even on many different levels within itself. The first bet to be decided during the Super Bowl might be the Over/Under on the length of the singing of the national anthem, or on the outcome of the coin toss. With The Masters, it might be how many tee balls in Thursday's very first group hit or miss the fairway on the first hole. Let's fast forward just a little bit, however, and focus on one of the truly bigger decisions we will face first as bettors – and that is the First Round Leader.

The Masters hasn't ever been a "catch-up" golf tournament. Getting out to a lead early is instrumental in going on to eventually win on Sunday. In fact, every one of the past 17 Masters winners has been T-11 or better on the leaderboard after Day 1. So First Round Leader at Augusta can be of even greater significance versus what we might see week-to-week on the PGA TOUR. Cash your FRL bet this week and you just might very well cash with some of those same players in the mix on Sunday, too.

For the second week in a row, it looks like our handicap will include us playing weatherman. Right now, the forecast is calling for cloudy skies on Thursday with rain developing later in the morning on Friday. In recent history, the Masters has had more First Round Leaders come from the afternoon start times than those in the morning - and in 2023 it appears the weather pattern may assist in that coming true again. Teeing off early on Friday could mean some players avoid the bulk of the showers predicted for later that day. The flip side is, will the late-early wave experience a very difficult firm and fast golf course for the first day and a half while the other side of the tee sheet benefits from easier Round 2 scoring conditions with a little moisture in the air? It looks like the rain is certain, but how severe will it be remains an unknown.

One answer I feel pretty confident about is this: after spending the golf season writing this column, at the very least, I do believe I will become a better weather handicapper.

So here we go, First Round Leader selections for the year’s first major with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Collin Morikawa (+3000, tee time 1:24 p.m. ET)

Dueling hole-outs from the bunker on the 18th hole last year by Morikawa and Rory McIlroy created one of the iconic images of the 2022 Masters. Morikawa went on to finish fifth and is fancied this year to go all the way by many respected bettors I know. I'm not in the camp that has him slipping on a green jacket - but I could see him snagging a crystal vase for the day’s low score.

Morikawa ranks 11th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average, 13th in Birdie Percentage, and is 25th in Bogey Avoidance. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks third in this field for SG: Approach and seventh for SG: Par 5's. Looking at some primary short game factors over the last 24 rounds, Morikawa also ranks 21st in this field under Firm & Fast putting conditions - i.e. if he is to avoid most of the rain. In opening rounds this year, Morikawa has gained 3+ strokes on the field three times.

Jason Day (+3300, tee time 12:48 p.m.)

I've always been a big Jason Day fan, and I'm really happy to see the resurgence in his game. I'm on one Aussie over another this week in a full tournament head-to-head matchup, backing Day over Cameron Smith, so put me down for a few different reasons to be rooting for JDay to come out of the gates hot on Thursday. He is 44th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average, 15th in Birdie Average, and second in Bogey Avoidance. In 2023, Day has put together eight rounds in which he has gained 3+ strokes on the field. Credit to @1stRoundLeader on Twitter as he notes that since 2013, Day has gained 3+ strokes on the field nine times at the Masters.

Danny Willett (+8000, tee time 11:54 a.m.)

I actually landed on Willett at the midway point back in 2016 when he won here. I think it was +4000 that I grabbed after Friday's round, if I recall. Of course, he went completely off the map for a few years after that, but like Jason Day, Willett has started to come back around as well. He’s not to the same degree as Day but has absolutely made significant progress, and I think he is a sneaky good play in many different markets this week. The short game is terrific. Over the last 36 rounds, Willett is eighth in this field for Scrambling and seventh for SG: Around the Green. He ranks 11th in the field over the last 24 rounds during Firm & Fast conditions, considering a handful of the primary short-game measures. And Willett is a Top 25 performer for SG: Total on the correlated courses I used this week, over his last 24 rounds - as are Morikawa and Day, by the way. Finally, since 2017 at the Masters, following his 2016 victory, Willett once gained 4+ strokes on the field in a first round.

Let the games begin.

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