Xander Schauffele can continue trend of first-time major winners at the Masters

Scottie Scheffler did it. Hideki Matsuyama also. The last two Masters Tournament champions claimed their first major championship title at Augusta National giving extra hope to the 53 players in the field this week looking to do just that.

It’s a list topped by Patrick Cantlay, who at +2000 to win with BetMGM Sportsbook, represents both the most likely choice with the oddsmakers, and the player with the most PGA TOUR wins (eight) of those who are still chasing a major.

There are actually a combined 104 PGA TOUR wins from players in the field who have not won a major, and seven of those who haven’t won on the TOUR have tasted success on the DP World Tour. Just four players, plus the seven amateurs, are chasing their first PGA TOUR or DP World Tour win as well as their first major (and one of those has six Japan Golf Tour wins).

Cantlay is playing his seventh Masters with a T9 in 2019 as his best result. While he put up an 8-under 64 that week, it remains one of just three rounds, out of 20, in the 60s on the property, with a scoring average of 72.60.

While his history at the Masters doesn’t bring a lot of confidence, his TOUR efforts this season include three top-four finishes. Outside of a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open, all seven other results are inside the top 26 and at No. 4 he is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings without a major.

Next up on the betting boards of those chasing a first major is seven-time PGA TOUR winner Xander Schauffele at +2200. In his five Masters appearances, Schauffele has a T2 (2019) and T3 (2021) but also missed the cut as a favorite last year. He has four top-10 finishes this season on TOUR and is coming off a T5 finish at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play after losing a close match against Rory McIlroy in the quarterfinals.

Two winners on TOUR this season, Max Homa and Tony Finau, both sit at +2500 to get their first major this week. Finau has three TOUR wins since last year’s Masters, which enhance his prospects when you pair that fact with his three top 10s at Augusta National in five tries.

Homa has now notched up six TOUR wins, two since his last trip to the Masters, and sits fifth in the world rankings. In his three previous Masters he missed the cut twice and was T48 last year. Homa has zero top-10s in majors.

The next most likely candidate according to the oddsmakers has not won at all before but at +3000 Cam Young is seen as a winner in waiting. He was a runner-up at The Open Championship last year and T3 at the PGA Championship but his Masters debut was one to forget. Young shot 77-76 on his way to miss the cut by six shots, but he enters the week with a recent runner-up result at the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Four players sit at +3300 this week in Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris. Burns is coming off his huge Match Play win, the fifth TOUR win of his career; Hovland is a three-time winner, Im two-time and Zalatoris famously broke his drought last year before suffering from a back injury.

Burns has just one trip down Magnolia Lane previously, missing the cut last year with rounds of 75-74. Hovland has been steady but has yet to unlock the secrets to the Masters in three tries. T32, T21 and T27 without a round in the 60s makes it tough to jump his way amid a top-heavy board.

Outside of a fourth-place finish at The Genesis Invitational, it’s been a lean season so far for Zalatoris, but one can easily be enticed by his two Masters starts of runner-up and T6. Two of Im’s results at Augusta National are also eye-catching; T2 in 2020 and T8 last season.

Now those are the “favored” golfers among those chasing a first major but are there any sleepers or longshots to consider? Bear in mind not since Charl Schwartzel in 2011 has a triple-digit price won the Masters.

The easiest strategy is to go down the Strokes Gained: Approach list on TOUR as Augusta National really is the cliché of a second-shot golf course. Matsuyama and Scheffler are the epitome of this. We don’t need to go far as right there at the top of the list this season is Tom Hoge. He sits +10000 and was T39 in his Masters debut last year.

(The above-mentioned Finau, Homa, Schauffele and Young are third, fifth, ninth and 20th on TOUR respectively in Strokes Gained: Approach).

England’s Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) is 11th on approach and Tom Kim (+8000) is 18th but Hatton has failed to better a T18 in six attempts and Kim is on debut. The International team firebrand and two-time TOUR winner could be a surprise contender in his first attempt.

Before closing I’ll tell you not to sleep on Min Woo Lee (+6600). Coming off his T6 at THE PLAYERS, the two-time DP World Tour winner finished T14 in his Masters debut a year ago, despite making 18 bogeys and a double bogey! The experience of where trouble is, coupled with a year’s worth of growth as a player himself, could see him threaten.

Of all the options, I’d lean to Schauffele as an outright, Finau as a top 10 and Lee and Kim as top 20s. Of course, I’ll get to other picks later in the week that includes the entire field list.

Good luck with all your picks.

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