Jason Day and Scottie Scheffler trending toward epic battle at WGC-Dell Match Play

AUSTIN, Texas. – Look out Austin, I smell something better than your incredible BBQ cooking.

As we move into the final day of group play at Austin Country Club we’ve seen some incredible golf played but it is what is left that could provide an epic weekend at the World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play.

We’ve officially lost 21 of the 64 players when it comes to a chance to advance as a group winner, headlined by seventh seed Will Zalatoris, eighth seed Viktor Hovland and 14th seeded Tyrrell Hatton.

But what we have left, granted with a lot of golf to play, is a legitimate path to a final 16 that includes the top four players in the official world rankings, a former two-time winner of this event, a couple of local Texas heroes among others.

One possible final eight sees defending champion Scottie Scheffler face off against Jason Day, Max Homa come up against Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm play Tony Finau and Rory McIlroy pitted against Xander Schauffele… dare we dream!?

But we also have plenty of Cinderella stories still in the mix. J.T. Poston, Taylor Montgomery, Cameron Young, Andrew Putnam and recent popular PLAYERS contender Min Woo Lee are among those with designs on taking down some big names.

On Tuesday I gave you my predicted Group winners and 13 of those predictions still have a chance. Time for an audible with updated odds from BetMGM Sportsbook with my group winner in bold. You can get an in-depth look at all scenarios to advance here.

GROUP 1

1 Scottie Scheffler (-600 to win group)

17 Tom Kim (+500)

54 Davis Riley (+1800)

Analysis: Scheffler moved his record to 12-2-2 at Austin Country Club and has his destiny in his own hands. All he needs is to win or tie against Tom Kim and even if he loses, he’s guaranteed a shot to advance in a playoff. I had him advancing pre-tournament and I’m not prepared to go against him now even if he’s ranked 43rd in the 64-man field in putting.

GROUP 16

16 Sungjae Im (+650)

43 J.T. Poston (-1000)

Analysis: Poston only needs to tie against a disappointing and already eliminated Maverick McNealy to make it to the final 16. Given Poston played the last seven holes five under par on Thursday to overrun Im and McNealy’s two matches included five bogeys and two double bogeys one can’t – with good conscience – advise against the postman delivering.

GROUP 8

34 Si Woo Kim (-145)

59 Matt Kuchar (+115)

Analysis: Kuchar’s record now stands at 35-11-5, just one win shy of Tiger Woods all-time win mark of 36. With four final four appearances, two final two appearances and one victory in 2013 on his resume I am going to stick solid to my pre-tournament pick of the veteran. They go head-to-head for the group win BUT Kim only needs to tie the match to advance. Kuchar must beat him over their 18 holes. Be warned, the stats over the first two rounds say Kim will be the man here. He is bogey free with 10 birdies and an eagle in his two matches. But experience and guile could get Kim off his game, and Kuchar has plenty of it.

GROUP 9

9 Collin Morikawa (+110)

32 Jason Day (-140)

Analysis: You really think I’m going to ditch off my choice to win it all now? Day is made for this format. He won in Tucson in 2014 and here in Austin in 2016 and is coming off the back of six straight top 20 finishes, four of those top 10s. The two go head-to-head for the group with Day only needing a tie to advance. He will destroy Morikawa on the greens. Perhaps I shouldn’t be over cocky though as Morikawa ranks third on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach but has been 53rd in the metric this week. If he gets dialed back in to his normal range, Day will be in a fight.

GROUP 4

4 Patrick Cantlay (-185)

25 Brian Harman (+140)

Analysis: I flagged Cantlay as a group winner pre-tournament without any confidence but I’m coming around now after he put up seven birdies in his first match and six more, plus an eagle, in his second. With both he and Harman winning twice they now play for it all. Win and in with a tie forcing a playoff. Cantlay is first Tee to Green, 11th on approach and third around the greens. If he lifts his putting, he will be near unbeatable. That’s where Harman will need to win… on the greens.

GROUP 13

13 Sam Burns (-450)

30 Seamus Power (+450)

33 Adam Scott (+1200)

Analysis: There is always something wacky that happens on Friday at match play so here is where I’ve targeted for such a thing. Adam Scott’s odds are juicy because he needs to not only beat the already eliminated Adam Hadwin, but he also needs Power to beat Burns outright to trigger a three-way playoff between them all. Why would I go against an undefeated Burns who ranks first in Strokes Gained: Putting this week? Because he’s DEAD LAST in Strokes Gained: Approach, and while a hot putter will overcome that, it gives the window and hope the other two need.

GROUP 5

5 Max Homa (-450)

18 Hideki Matsuyama (+400)

63 Justin Suh (+1400)

Analysis: Homa in a canter. He only needs to win or tie against Matsuyama and after bogeys in two of his opening three holes on Wednesday he’s since been mistake-free with a steady eight birdies. With his path now clear and concise, Homa will lock in and make easy work of it.

GROUP 12

12 Jordan Spieth (+900)

47 Taylor Montgomery (-450)

50 Mackenzie Hughes (+500)

Analysis: The heart wants to put Spieth through here but the local favorite needs to not only win his match against the eliminated Shane Lowry (he will) but needs Mackenzie Hughes to win outright over Montgomery, to send them all to a three-way playoff. Montgomery has already dispatched Spieth once and I think he will do it again by getting home in a close battle with Hughes.

GROUP 2

2 Jon Rahm (-105)

22 Billy Horschel (+160)

49 Rickie Fowler (+450)

Analysis: Something about match play brings out the best in Billy Horschel and he could make a huge statement towards a spot in the Ryder Cup team later this year if he takes Rahm out on Friday. But the former champion of the event is about to meet a resurgent Rahm who let Fowler beat him on day one but rebounded to smash Keith Mitchell on day two. Rahm found something on the greens Thursday and that means Horschel, who only needs a tie to earn at worst a playoff, will give up his dream of winning this for the second time in three years.

GROUP 15

15 Cameron Young (-800)

36 Corey Conners (+900)

57 Davis Thompson (+1200)

Analysis: Switching off my original call of Conners to jump on last year’s Rookie of the Year. Young only needs to tie against the already eliminated Sepp Straka to advance and even a loss allows him to advance either directly or via a playoff.

GROUP 7

29 Ryan Fox (+1400)

37 Harris English (+350)

56 Andrew Putnam (-350)

Analysis: Just for the thrill of it lets stick with my pre-tournament pick of Kiwi Ryan Fox here. It’s not an easy path… he needs to win against the already eliminated Zalatoris (maybe they will give each other putts inside 4 feet to save the stress) and then hope English beats Putnam outright. If that happens, it triggers a three-way playoff between them. Fox can’t possibly putt any worse than he has, ranked last in the field losing over six shots to the average. He’s third off the tee and 10th on approach, so it’s not completely outside the realms of possibility.

GROUP 10

10 Tony Finau (-550)

19 Kurt Kitayama (+500)

45 Adrian Meronk (+1600)

Analysis: Finau only needs a win or tie over Kitayama to advance. He will do that.

GROUP 3

3 Rory McIlroy (-250)

20 Keegan Bradley (+190)

Analysis: McIlroy only needs to tie against Bradley to advance and I think he will do so… but Bradley won’t go quietly. He will be looking to prove his Ryder Cup worth as much as anything else. But McIlroy’s drive on 18 Thursday, that almost went in from 375 yards, gives him incredible momentum.

GROUP 14

31 Russell Henley (+1400)

46 Lucas Herbert (-350)

62 Ben Griffin (+333)

Analysis: Herbert only needs a tie against Ben Griffin to advance so I’ll play the smart money move here. He’s bogey free on the back nine and an elite putter.

GROUP 6

6 Xander Schauffele (-750)

40 Aaron Wise (+900)

64 Cam Davis (+1000)

Analysis: “It shocks me to see Schauffele is 0 from 4 getting out of the group stage at Austin Country Club, as he’s a born competitor and should thrive in this format. I’ll give him one last vote of faith this year despite being in a very tough group.” This was from Tuesday. I won’t deviate now as he all he needs is a tie against the eliminated Tom Hoge to advance.

GROUP 11

11 Matt Fitzpatrick (+900)

41 Min Woo Lee (+300)

61 J.J. Spaun (-275)

Analysis: Pre-tournament I said the winner of the Theegala / Lee match would win the group and went with Theegala. Lee won in a barn burner but subsequently lost the following day to Fitzpatrick. Despite this I’ll take Lee who needs to beat Spaun outright, then take him, and possible Fitzpatrick, down in a playoff.

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