Golfbet Insider: THE PLAYERS Championship

I’m not smiling, you’re smiling. OK, we’re all smiling. It’s THE PLAYERS!

I’m in Vegas, er, Ponte Vedra Beach for a couple of days to take as much in as I can. It only seems like Vegas what with the round-the-clock energy and positive vibes for as far as you can feel. The only difference here is that it’s a wet heat, although that’s an overstatement, at least the part about the heat. THE PLAYERS is back in March, after all. Still, daytime highs will flirt with 70 degrees on the days when it’s not guaranteed. Not too shabby.

By now, you’ve consumed all or parts of Golfbet’s expansive coverage of the hometown stop of the PGA TOUR. To pull my weight, I went an extra five deep in the Power Rankings that didn’t include the fellas assigned to the WILD CARD and ALSO STARRING below.

While bettors are perusing a delicious buffet of options across many books – also expanded … duh – PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers have it easy.

THE PLAYERS marks the conclusion of Segment 2. While individual motivations vary, a broad stroke to advise all is to empty the bucket and play with your favorites. My extended analysis last week of the final fortnight in Segment 2 upheld that this week can be a crapshoot. Yes, you’re going to hit on some, but the misses can be brutal.

I’ll put it to you like this…

Strip away everything that attracts a phenomenal field and slot it, say, in the middle of a Segment. Think only players v. course. In that scenario, the advice would be to holster the haymakers for other more predictable outcomes. This is to say that, with THE PLAYERS anchoring Segment 2 after which all of us will have all players reset to three starts when the Valspar Championship steps to the plate, it’s a fine week to swim in the next tier of talent. Sure, most of us have to because we’ve exhausted starts on so many studs, so not having the choice is a nice problem to have, but it’s still where the focus belongs.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Xander Schauffele (+120 = Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Tony Finau all to Make the Cut) … Last week’s top-20 parlay in this space paid off – see Recap below – and it makes even more sense at THE PLAYERS even though the kickback is weaker. Hovland and Finau are in my Power Rankings, so that support speaks for itself, but we’re relying on how consistent Schauffele has been of late to overcome an 0-for-3 since a co-runner-up in his tournament debut in 2018. The thing is, he’s been on point upon arrival before, so to be blunt, he may be having trouble just finding a comfort zone. (You can picture Pete Dye grinning.) Given that Schauffele is +105 for a top 20 on his own ball, you’re not going to find better value if you want him on your card.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, March 8, at 1:00 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Jordan Spieth (+170 = Miss the Cut) … Last week taken as a whole was almost special. He was his usual magician self around the greens. Despite ranking T62 in greens hit, he finished T4 in the only ranking that matters. Yet, upon closer examination, he still stumbled with a third-round 74. Sure, Bay Hill does that to professional golfers, but it’s also in line with a longer arc of his misfires. It’s why he’s been on a shorter leash with us. Now that TPC Sawgrass is next, he’s going to need his approach game to improve because there’s only so much opportunity to miss in the right spots. Since a T4 in his tournament debut, he’s just 2-for-7 and without a top 40 on the course.

Collin Morikawa (+130 = Morikawa, Will Zalatoris and Jason Day all to Make the Cut) … It’s the same bet as Schauffele’s in the Wild Card, only with three different guys and with a tad more pop. Again, TPC Sawgrass is going to have household names among its victims, and Morikawa essentially has been a coin flip in 2023, but he’s in his third appearance and the course rewards his strength more than his weakness. That’s good enough for this. (Both Zalatoris and Day are in my Power Rankings.)

Kurt Kitayama (+115 = Miss the Cut) … Even the house likes it. He’s +120 for a Top 40 despite the bounce of his breakthrough victory on the PGA TOUR. But I concur. Not only is he going through all kinds of celebratory motions before he feet return to earth, but he’s also a first-timer at TPC Sawgrass. He’s really good, obviously, and I dig his nonchalance – it speak to his balance – but this sequence of events is extra.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Shane Lowry, Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler (+225 = all to Make the Cut)

Thomas Detry (+175 = Top 40)

Ryan Fox (+160 = Top 40)

Dylan Frittelli (+220 = Top South African)

Nate Lashley (+250 = Top 40)

David Lingmerth (+350 = Top 40)

Jhonattan Vegas (+120 = Top South American)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Maverick McNealy … By the time he pegs it on Thursday, it’ll be one day shy of a full month since his last live action. A sore left shoulder prompted consecutive mid-tournament withdrawals at Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale. Both were gut punches given the kind of season that he’s been manufacturing. To give it a go and trust in his prep in the cauldron of TPC Sawgrass is, well, it’s necessary given the gawdy rewards, but it’ll require all of his experience to stay patience amid the mind games.

Byeong Hun An (+300 = Top 40) … Logged only one round at Bay Hill (75), and then cited a wrist injury when he withdrew, buuuut his wife delivered their second child on Tuesday, March 7, so perhaps the joint isn’t giving him as much trouble as we should beware. He’s been sailing along nicely, so the fact that his nerves have been quelled by a healthy mom and child, the timing never could be better to simplify the focus back on the job.

Lanto Griffin … Sidelined since walking off Riviera during his second round of The Genesis Invitational with a sore rib. It was his fourth start after taking more than six months off to recover from a microdiscectomy. Observe only this week, gang.

NOTABLE WDs

Tiger Woods … He’s reiterated that he plans to play only the majors and whenever it makes sense. His five-year exemption into THE PLAYERS for winning the 2019 Masters extends into 2024.

Daniel Berger … It’s been a month now since he acknowledged that he’ll be returning “soon,” but his time away to recover from an injured back has reached almost nine months.

C.T. Pan … Shared a post on Instagram on Jan. 30 that he might be returning from an injured wrist later this month, but that post has been deleted.

John Huh … Appeared eight times in the fall and cashed in half of them, but he hasn’t played in 2023. Now battling tendinitis in an elbow, he’s withdrawn early after four commitments and didn’t commit to THE PLAYERS.

Vince Whaley … Just 1-for-3 on the season and out since the Shriners. An explanation has not been released. In response to a query on Twitter, he’s targeting early May for a return.

Ben Taylor … He and Kevin Yu (below) gained entry via position outside the top 10 in the FedExCup at the conclusion of The Honda Classic and are not competing at TPC Sawgrass, but the Brit has the best of reasons. He’s getting married. He also 30th in the FedExCup. Life is good.

Kevin Yu … Underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee on Feb. 20. Expected to be out for a few months. It was an unfortunate turn of events, but injuries are a part of fantasy sports. He’s 54th in the FedExCup and likely to fall well outside the top 70 by the time he’s projected to return, but that’s a nest egg better than most alternatives to figure it out later.

RECAP – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result

1 Scottie Scheffler T4

2 Jon Rahm T39

3 Max Homa T14

4 Rory McIlroy T2

5 Tyrrell Hatton T4

6 Jason Day T10

7 Collin Morikawa MC

8 Will Zalatoris T53

9 Viktor Hovland T10

10 Keith Mitchell T24

11 Keegan Bradley T10

12 Xander Schauffele T39

13 Matt Fitzpatrick T14

14 Chris Kirk T39

15 Tommy Fleetwood T61

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) Result

Byeong Hun An (+550 = Top 20) WD

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+375 = Top 20) MC

Aaron Baddeley T34

Luke List MC

Davis Riley T8

GOLFBET INSIDER

Golfer (recommended bet) Result

*Wild Card: Patrick Cantlay (+190 = Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler both Top 20) Cantlay (T4)/Scheffler (T4)

Also Starring: Sam Burns (+320 = Top 10) MC

*Also Starring: Jordan Spieth (+150 = Top 20) T4

*Also Starring: Justin Thomas (-250 = Top 40) T21

Also Starring: Hideki Matsuyama (+400 = Top Asian) MC

Tap-In: Joseph Bramlett (+175 = Top 40) MC

*Tap-In: Corey Conners (+250 = Top Canadian) T21

Tap-In: Min Woo Lee (+120 = Top 40) MC

Tap-In: Shane Lowry (+200 = Miss the Cut) 67th

*Tap-In: Andrew Putnam (+188 = Top 40) T34

Tap-In: Sam Ryder (+150 = Top 40) MC

*Tap-In: Robby Shelton (+200 = Top 40) T39

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