Pressure Point: Key ‘deficits’ facing top stars at THE PLAYERS

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – Here’s the truth. I can give you a solid reason to pick any of the top five players on the betting boards this week at THE PLAYERS Championship. Actually, we could probably extend this to the top 30 on the board. These are truly elite golfers, and with TPC Sawgrass not posing a strong bias towards just one facet of the game, it really is open to anyone who can bring their best over four rounds.

But what about a reason the top brass might not be holding the trophy? As good as the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are going, is there something in their game that they know they need to improve to truly get to their ultimate best?

As Rahm himself said from TPC Sawgrass Tuesday, “We all have our deficits on the golf course.”

He’s right. The weaknesses at this level may be paper-thin, but they can ultimately make the difference on a demanding layout like the Stadium Course. So here’s a look at the top five on the board, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, and what might hold them back this week – or what slight improvement could put them over the top.

Rory McIlroy (+900 to win)

Pressure point: Strokes Gained: Putting

McIlroy is a former champion at TPC Sawgrass having taken out the 2019 event when it returned to March for the first time since 2006. He’s coming off a runner-up finish at the Bay Hill and appears highly motivated to go one better. But if he is to do so, he will have to up his game on the greens.

McIlroy ranks 151st on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting this season, losing -0.290 shots per round to the field average on the greens. If you want to drill down a little deeper, you can see he’s making just 40% from seven feet (ranked 186th), 24% from 10-15 feet (ranked 180th) and 10% from 15-20 feet (ranked 189th). He’s also ranked 203rd with just one made putt from 61 attempts outside 25 feet. Worryingly, McIlroy ranks 189th in putts per final round.

Jon Rahm (+900 to win)

Pressure Point: Scrambling from the rough

World No.1 Rahm has three wins in his last six TOUR starts but spooked a few folks with back-to-back rounds of 76 last week during the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. His best results at TPC Sawgrass are a T9 in 2021 and T12 in 2019, where he was tripped up by final rounds of 73 and 76, respectively. But it is the 3.5” rough, up an inch from a year ago, that might have Rahm spending a little more time in practice.

Rahm is ranked 212th on TOUR in scrambling from the rough with a 39% success rate and he’s 25-over par in these instances. He is also just 31.58% scrambling from 20-30 yards (ranked 206th). It’s not just around the greens where the rough has been tricky for Rahm. He’s ranked 172nd on TOUR on approach shots from the rough between 50-125 yards.

Scottie Scheffler (+1000 to win)

Pressure Point: Sand saves

Scheffler, the winner at the WM Phoenix Open this season and coming off a T4 in his Arnold Palmer Invitational title defense, has continued on from his breakout four-win season last year. But he’s one person who is not excited to be at the beach this week on the northeast coast of Florida.

Scheffler ranks 192nd on the TOUR this season in sand save percentage at just 39.13%, well back from Matt Kuchar’s TOUR leading 78.38%. With bunkers in play around the greens on all 18 holes, the Texan will need to keep his usual crisp ball-striking at its best or find himself grinding on his weakness.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600 to win)

Pressure Point: Par-3 scoring

The fact Cantlay has missed the cut here in his last three attempts is a concern in itself, but while he leads the TOUR in Par-4 and Par-5 scoring average this season, when it comes to the shorter holes, he’s lagging significantly against his peers. He is 197th on TOUR, averaging 3.15.

In his career at TPC Sawgrass Cantlay is even par on the par-3 third, 1 over on the 13th, 3 over on the eighth and when it comes to the infamous island green 17th… the Californian is 4 over, including a triple bogey a year ago.

Justin Thomas (+1800 to win)

Pressure Point: 3-Putt Avoidance

Thomas is a proven winner at THE PLAYERS, having collected the 2021 tournament in impressive fashion. If he is to be the first player since Tiger Woods (2013) to win it twice he will need to have his full focus on the greens.

Thomas is 209th on the TOUR in 3-Putt Avoidance having already three-putted 21 times this season. When he won at TPC Sawgrass, he was T25 in this metric, with two 3-putts across his 72 holes.

Thomas is also 121st on TOUR putting inside 10 feet. In his winning performance two years ago, he made over 90% from inside this range.

The Bottom Line

Now that I’ve armed you with the information, we still need to bite the bullet and pick a winner. While my personal favorite this week is former champion Jason Day (he’s +2800 but has some issues from key yardages on approach for balance), when it comes to the top five, I’m leaning to McIlroy. While the putting issues are a potential concern, the reality is it’s the one metric where there is some leeway this week. Tee-to-green must be on song but if he can improve enough to be inside the top 50 in the field in putting, it could make the difference in his quest for a second PLAYERS trophy.

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