Bettors lining up to back Jon Rahm at THE PLAYERS

It should come as no surprise that Jon Rahm’s odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship have been shortening ever since he kicked off his trophy collection campaign of 2023.

Three wins in five starts will usually get the attention of bettors. Such has been the case over the last two months for Rahm, who won for the third time thcis year Sunday at The Genesis Invitational to return to world No. 1.

While most PGA TOUR events see betting markets released the Monday of tournament week, select events like THE PLAYERS and the majors have futures markets posted months ahead of time. Rahm opened the year behind Rory McIlroy in betting odds for TPC Sawgrass, but he has since become a clear favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook with no sign that things will slow down ahead of the March 9-12 event.

“It did not take long for the bettors to fall in love with Jon Rahm,” said a BetMGM trading representative. “They did not have to wait for his third win of the season. He’s clearly the best-backed runner so far.”

Rahm opened at +1200 and is now down to +800 to win in two weeks’ time. Oddsmakers have still seen steady action on McIlroy, whose early-year play includes a DP World Tour win in Dubai. But the sheer volume of action on Rahm has caused McIlroy’s to drift slightly, from +900 to +1000.

Odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship (via BetMGM)

+800: Jon Rahm

+1000: Rory McIlroy

+1400: Scottie Scheffler

+1800: Justin Thomas

+2000: Patrick Cantlay

+2200: Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris

+2500: Tony Finau, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele

Rahm has just one top-10 finish in five previous appearances at TPC Sawgrass, that being a T9 result in 2021. He also finished T12 in 2019, when he held the lead on the back nine Sunday before faltering and McIlroy went on to lift the trophy.

“Current form will always supersede recent victories (at a host course),” the representative explained about Rahm’s position ahead of McIlroy. “This year will be more so based on how good and dominant Rahm has been to start the season.”

Rahm is not the only player whose odds have been on the move in recent weeks. Max Homa nearly caught the Spaniard at Riviera and grabbed a trophy of his own last month at Torrey Pines to go along with his win in the season-opener in Napa. Despite faring much better in California than Florida over his career, Homa’s odds for THE PLAYERS have been cut in half – from +5000 to +2500. But Homa isn’t the second-most popular pick behind Rahm. That would be Sahith Theegala, who is listed at +8000 and remains popular among bettors hoping to cash in when he turns a run of close calls into a breakthrough victory.

“He’s a quiet underachiever,” the BetMGM trading representative said. “Despite not winning an event yet, he’s had five top-10 finishes. He’s running second only to Rahm.”

Of course, as some odds shorten others must move in the opposite direction. There hasn’t been much action around Matt Fitzpatrick, as the U.S. Open champ has missed two of his last three cuts including at Riviera.

“In five tournaments this year, he has not really shown the form from around his U.S. Open win last year,” said the representative. “He opened around +2200 and his price has nearly doubled to +4000.”

We still have two weeks to go before the best players in the world descend upon TPC Sawgrass. A surprise winner this week could race up the odds board, and many of the biggest names are expected to tee it up at next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational before making the short trek north from Orlando to Ponte Vedra Beach.

But regardless of how things play out at PGA National and Bay Hill, oddsmakers are expecting to lead the board come tournament week with the current world No. 1 as Rahm has become a “clear-cut” favorite after becoming the fastest to three TOUR wins in a calendar year since Johnny Miller in 1975.

“A win or a top-5 finish (over the next two weeks) would see players’ odds change,” said the representative. “Obviously Rahm and Homa are the two big shorteners for THE PLAYERS, as both of them have been clearly the best two since the start of the season.”

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